NAT 1.2% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Jade Benham, since 2022.
Geography
Northwestern Victoria. Mildura covers the town of Mildura itself as well as a much larger area, including parts of the New South Wales and South Australian borders. It also covers the towns of Hopetoun, Ouyen, Red Cliffs, Robinvale and Wycheproof. The seat covers the entirety of the Rural City of Mildura, the northern half of Yarriambiack Shire, most of Buloke Shire and western parts of the Rural City of Swan Hill (without including the town of Swan Hill itself).
History
Mildura has existed as an electoral district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1927, and in that time it has been dominated by the Country/National Party, although there have been periods where that party has lost the seat, including the 18 years prior to the 2006 election.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Albert Allnutt. He served as a Country Party member from 1930 until 1945, when he was expelled, and shortly afterwards lost his seat.
He was succeeded by the ALP’s Louis Garlick, who held the seat for one term from 1945 to 1947. He was defeated in 1947 by the Country Party’s Nathaniel Barclay.
Barclay held the seat for two terms, losing in 1952 to the ALP’s Alan Lind. He won the seat back in 1955, and held it until his death in 1962.
Lind was succeeded by the Country Party’s Milton Whiting, who won the seat at a 1962 by-election and served in the seat until his retirement in 1988.
At the 1988 election, Liberal candidate Craig Bildstien managed to win the seat with Labor preferences, putting an end to the National Party’s local domination.
Bildstien was re-elected in 1992, but in 1996 he was defeated by independent Russell Savage.
Savage was re-elected with a large margin in 1999, following which he agreed to support a state Labor government in minority. He was again safely re-elected in 2002, but in 2006 he lost his seat to the Nationals’ Peter Crisp.
Peter Crisp was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Crisp was defeated in 2018 by independent candidate Ali Cupper. Independent candidate Jade Benham won the seat back in 2022.
- Jade Benham (Nationals)
- Katie Clements (Greens)
- Ali Cupper (Independent)
- Renee Nayef (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
An independent or One Nation could be a serious threat to the Nationals here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ali Cupper | Independent | 12,913 | 33.9 | +2.9 |
| Jade Benham | Nationals | 9,868 | 25.9 | -11.4 |
| Paul Matheson | Liberal | 7,291 | 19.1 | +16.1 |
| Stella Zigouras | Labor | 2,483 | 6.5 | -11.1 |
| Glenn Milne | Independent | 1,716 | 4.5 | +4.5 |
| Sonia Brymer | Independent | 1,080 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Katie Clements | Greens | 894 | 2.3 | -1.4 |
| Felicity Sharpe | Democratic Labour | 586 | 1.5 | +1.4 |
| Brad Stratton | Family First | 560 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Philippe John Brougham | Freedom Party | 416 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Angylina Zayn | Animal Justice | 333 | 0.9 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 3,096 | 7.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jade Benham | Nationals | 19,520 | 51.2 | +0.9 |
| Ali Cupper | Independent | 18,620 | 48.8 | -0.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jade Benham | Nationals | 24,454 | 64.1 | +8.0 |
| Stella Zigouras | Labor | 13,686 | 35.9 | -8.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Mildura, the centre and the south. Mildura made up about two thirds of the election day vote.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in two areas, with 60.3% in the south and 62.4% in the centre. Independent candidate Ali Cupper won 50.2% in the most populous Mildura area.
| Voter group | LIB prim | NAT 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mildura | 20.5 | 49.8 | 9,927 | 25.9 |
| South | 13.3 | 60.3 | 3,389 | 8.8 |
| Central | 11.4 | 62.4 | 2,406 | 6.3 |
| Pre-poll | 20.7 | 48.7 | 18,610 | 48.5 |
| Other votes | 17.5 | 53.0 | 4,035 | 10.5 |
Election results in Mildura at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Independent) and primary votes for independent candidate Ali Cupper the Nationals, Lardner and the Liberal Party.
Nats retain. Swing to them regardless of whether ali cupper recontests. Jade benham has been an effective MP and her tough on crime stance will resonate
Cupper is done. If she can’t beat the Nats in 2022 with incumbency she won’t when the coalition does good. Same with Shepparton.
There was an ABC article about recent changes to the Local Government Act which will force councillors to take leave/stand down from Mayoral or deputy positions when they commence their state/federal campaigns.
Ali Cupper was quoted as saying she was going to run for Mildura again. I don’t think she’s a threat to the seat anymore but she could certainly threaten the ability of the nats to come 2nd and beat ONP from there if ONP poll well in the deep rurals on election night