ALP 10.8%
Incumbent MP
Jacinta Allan, since 1999.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Bendigo, and areas to the north of Bendigo, including Strathfieldsaye, Huntly and Elmore. Bendigo East includes a majority of those rural areas included in the City of Greater Bendigo, as well as parts of Loddon Shire.
History
Bendigo East has existed for two different periods: from 1904-1927, and since 1985.
The original seat was first won by an unaligned MP, but was held by the ALP from 1907 to 1927.
The new seat was won in 1985 by Michael John of the Liberal Party. He served on the Liberal frontbench from 1988, and served in the ministry for the Kennett government’s first term from 1992-1996.
In 1999, John was defeated by 25-year-old Jacinta Allan of the ALP. Allan joined the Bracks ministry in 2002, and has served on the Labor frontbench ever since. Allan served as a minister from 2002 to 2010, and again from 2014 until 2023, when she was elected Labor leader and thus Premier upon the retirement of Dan Andrews.
Jacinta Allan served as premier for less than three years, before being replaced by Ben Carroll in July 2026.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jacinta Allan is not running for re-election.
- Andrew Lethlean (Nationals)
- Denali Norsen (Victorian Socialists)
- Michael Tolhurst (Greens)
Assessment
Bendigo East is definitely vulnerable, with One Nation expected to perform strongly in regional areas.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 22,010 | 48.3 | -2.0 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 12,478 | 27.4 | +6.5 |
| Michael James Tolhurst | Greens | 3,944 | 8.7 | +0.7 |
| Ben Mihail | One Nation | 2,597 | 5.7 | +5.7 |
| James Laurie | Independent | 1,603 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Vyonne McLelland-Howe | Animal Justice | 1,574 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Evelyn Keetelaar | Family First | 1,362 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Informal | 2,184 | 4.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 27,727 | 60.8 | -1.3 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 17,841 | 39.2 | +1.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the vicinity of Bendigo have been split into central, north and south, while the rural remainder has been grouped.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 60% in Bendigo South to 64.5% in Bendigo North. The Liberal Party polled 54.2% in the rural parts of the seat.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bendigo Central | 63.3 | 5,387 | 11.8 |
| Bendigo North | 64.5 | 4,936 | 10.8 |
| Bendigo South | 60.0 | 4,040 | 8.8 |
| Rural | 45.8 | 1,405 | 3.1 |
| Pre-poll | 60.6 | 25,090 | 54.9 |
| Other votes | 61.2 | 4,834 | 10.6 |
Election results in Bendigo East at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Andrew Lethlean has been preselected as the Nationals candidate for Bendigo East. https://vic.nationals.org.au/media-releases/andrew-lethlean-selected-as-nationals-candidate-for-bendigo-east/
Jacinta Allan is in real trouble here. Only her personal vote can save her in Bendigo East. 10.8% is a big margin but the Nats will throw everything at it which they havent done before. Its a really small sample size but the Bendigo Advertiser polled 30 people on the weekend. Only 2 said they were voting Labor.
Reports today that there are leadership rumblings around Jacinta Allan. If they come to pass and there is a change, this may be a vacant seat in November. If she was rolled, I wonder if Jacinta Allan would flip them the bird and go early?
Not sure anyone else in the party has the numbers to roll her though – would be a brave challenger too in this environment
The more leadership rumblings the more it undermines Jacinta Allan. These leadership rumblings would suggest that the internal polling is a lot worse than what we can see publicly.
Jess Wilson is campaigning with Andrew Lethlean in Bendigo today. So Im pretty sure the Libs arent running here. Too risky splitting the Coalition vote.
I’m becoming less convinced that Allan is going to make it to this state election, she seems to always be on the back foot and the this definitely deep anger in the party at the way she is dealing with serious problem.
She seems to have a leaker or two from cabinet as well, reasonable chance she doesn’t last the month?
Liberals are actively campaigning for Lethlean here – seems they won’t run their own candidate and the field is totally cleared for the Nats
@Maxim,
There is definitely someone from the cabinet leaking as they’re likely feeling the pressure in their own seat and probably not use to it. I don’t how long she could last as replacing her won’t solve the parties woes.
Both federal seats of Ballarat and Bendigo swung against the government in the recent federal election which would suggest that there is some brand damage and cost of living pressures. I’m not convinced that Labor is going to have any seats in Ballarat or Bendigo areas after the 2026 state election, the cancellation of the state commonwealth games and poor infrastructure as well as cost of living looks to be a drag on Labor.
“Labor party woes”
I cannot see Labor losing Bendigo West or Wendouree. Therefore Labor won’t be wiped out of Ballarat and Bendigo.
If Jacinta Allan was sensible she’d resign today rather than dragging this out as its clear she no longer enjoys the confidence of the party room.
It’s unlikely Jacinta Allan will contest the 2026 election, the lose of her personal vote and the damaged Labor brand here which is going to be difficult to hold.
She was the only ever Labor MP for the seat. When this seat was created based in 1985 based on the notional 1982 Landslide result it was a Liberal seat. Unfortunately for Labor it maybe harder to win this seat back than other potential losses like Yan Yeanm Melton or Sunbury where the pendulum can shift back. I wil have more to say in the ocming days but prior to 1999 it was actually a Liberal leaning seat, Jacinta Allan is the last of the class of 1999.
Not only the loss of her personal vote (which I think had evaporated anyway) but now anyone who still liked or respected her could be unhappy that she was forced out of the leadership
In 1999, it was the surprise swings to Labor in regional seats that helped deliver the Bracks government. Labor hasn’t lost any of them since, not even in 2010. The main ones are around Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong and Gisbourne (now Macedon).
When Jacinta Allan became the premier, there were high hopes of her being a regional premier and would improve services in the regions and in western Melbourne. There is a lot of anger in these areas and so I tip big swings. In seats like Bendigo East and Ripon, the Commonwealth Games promise inflated the Labor margin last election. The broken promise will bite Labor for sure.
It would’ve been really hard for Allan to defend this seat whilst being premier and sandbagging marginal Labor seats. I can see the potential loss and the need to counter against a motivated Nats campaign as reasons for her resignation.
@ Votante
Labor has lost regional seats in Narracan which they won in 1999 but is a complely different seat as it no longer has any of the La Trobe Valley these days so i doubt Labor would have won on current boundaries in 1999
Re Ripon important to remember i dont feel Labor actually lost the seat yet it was Lib held between 2014-2022 due to redistribution only. IMHO if Labor won it by even 5 votes in 2018 they could have got a sophomurge surge in anycase even if they never bid for Commonwealth Games i still feel Jacinta Allan would have won in 2022 if they had not bid for the games. Labor was unlucky they won the seat in 2022 and not 2018.
@Nimalan, since 1999, the regional centres of Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong have become safer for Labor. I believe it is because of ongoing economic diversification and attraction of younger, highly educated professionals. The centres have become regional hubs with more employment in the public sector, universities and health and education. There has been less reliance on agriculture or food processing. Also, they have attracted tree changers and alternative lifestyle types.
I don’t think many people were enticed by the Commonwealth Games itself but rather by the billions in infrastructure and sporting facility upgrades and tourism that they expected to come. The abandoning of the games allows the Coalition to run with the ‘Labor has neglected the regions’ narrative.
@ Votante
I agree with your points thats why methinks even if Labor does loose Bendigo East, Ripon and Eureka as expected it does not preclude Labor winning back in better times ahead with the Caveat that in these non Metro seats a personal vote is more valuable than in a Metro seat.
Jacinta Allan unsurprisingly has announced she is retiring which will make Labor’s life a lot harder in trying to retain this seat.
It could go either way. We could also argue that Jacinta Allan’s departure will help Labor here. Her brand was damaged. This might explain the swing against Labor in Bendigo at the last federal election when they were on a high.
The Libs and Nats were running an anti-Allan campaign and were probably going to pour tons of resources into it. If she had stayed on as leader, she would have to spread her resources and time thinly to defend this seat and various marginal Labor seats. At least Labor has a chance to start afresh now and the local candidate can focus solely on defending this seat.
Labor will lose Bendigo East no matter who Labor chooses to contest the seat. Losing the personal vote of a 27-year incumbent Labor member will be sufficient to generate a massive swing against Labor, which will be exacerbated by the unpopularity of the Labor brand. What’s more, the new Labor candidate will have just over 3 months’ time for campaigning, while by the time the new Labor candidate starts campaigning, the Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean will have already built a strong profile in the electorate after his federal campaign for Bendigo as well as four months of state campaign for Bendigo East. The 2PP swing against Labor in Bendigo East will be among one of the largest across Victoria.
Considering Andrew Lethlean already recorded a primary vote in the 20s and 30s in many booths within Bendigo East at the 2025 federal election, he has a strong chance of attracting a primary vote in the low 30s, top the primary vote and easily win with the help of One Nation preferences.
I do think Labor is on track to loose it and i dont think it will be much of a contest. As i mentioned prior to Jacinta Allan winning in 1999 it had been a Liberal leaning seat and even based on the 1982 notional result it was a Liberal seat. It always had a higher TPP for Libs than Victoria as a whole. Coalition needs to win 17 seats of the Labor party (based on general election not by-election results) and need a uniform swing up to 8% it has been said that for every seat below this threshold they sandbag they need once further up the pendulum. They now have one further up the pendulum so can afford not to win one of Bentleigh, Greenvale, Monbulk or Box Hill.