To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Andrew Lethlean has been preselected as the Nationals candidate for Bendigo East. https://vic.nationals.org.au/media-releases/andrew-lethlean-selected-as-nationals-candidate-for-bendigo-east/
Jacinta Allan is in real trouble here. Only her personal vote can save her in Bendigo East. 10.8% is a big margin but the Nats will throw everything at it which they havent done before. Its a really small sample size but the Bendigo Advertiser polled 30 people on the weekend. Only 2 said they were voting Labor.
Reports today that there are leadership rumblings around Jacinta Allan. If they come to pass and there is a change, this may be a vacant seat in November. If she was rolled, I wonder if Jacinta Allan would flip them the bird and go early?
Not sure anyone else in the party has the numbers to roll her though – would be a brave challenger too in this environment
The more leadership rumblings the more it undermines Jacinta Allan. These leadership rumblings would suggest that the internal polling is a lot worse than what we can see publicly.
Jess Wilson is campaigning with Andrew Lethlean in Bendigo today. So Im pretty sure the Libs arent running here. Too risky splitting the Coalition vote.
I’m becoming less convinced that Allan is going to make it to this state election, she seems to always be on the back foot and the this definitely deep anger in the party at the way she is dealing with serious problem.
She seems to have a leaker or two from cabinet as well, reasonable chance she doesn’t last the month?
Liberals are actively campaigning for Lethlean here – seems they won’t run their own candidate and the field is totally cleared for the Nats
@Maxim,
There is definitely someone from the cabinet leaking as they’re likely feeling the pressure in their own seat and probably not use to it. I don’t how long she could last as replacing her won’t solve the parties woes.
Both federal seats of Ballarat and Bendigo swung against the government in the recent federal election which would suggest that there is some brand damage and cost of living pressures. I’m not convinced that Labor is going to have any seats in Ballarat or Bendigo areas after the 2026 state election, the cancellation of the state commonwealth games and poor infrastructure as well as cost of living looks to be a drag on Labor.
“Labor party woes”
I cannot see Labor losing Bendigo West or Wendouree. Therefore Labor won’t be wiped out of Ballarat and Bendigo.
If Jacinta Allan was sensible she’d resign today rather than dragging this out as its clear she no longer enjoys the confidence of the party room.
It’s unlikely Jacinta Allan will contest the 2026 election, the lose of her personal vote and the damaged Labor brand here which is going to be difficult to hold.
She was the only ever Labor MP for the seat. When this seat was created based in 1985 based on the notional 1982 Landslide result it was a Liberal seat. Unfortunately for Labor it maybe harder to win this seat back than other potential losses like Yan Yeanm Melton or Sunbury where the pendulum can shift back. I wil have more to say in the ocming days but prior to 1999 it was actually a Liberal leaning seat, Jacinta Allan is the last of the class of 1999.
Not only the loss of her personal vote (which I think had evaporated anyway) but now anyone who still liked or respected her could be unhappy that she was forced out of the leadership
In 1999, it was the surprise swings to Labor in regional seats that helped deliver the Bracks government. Labor hasn’t lost any of them since, not even in 2010. The main ones are around Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong and Gisbourne (now Macedon).
When Jacinta Allan became the premier, there were high hopes of her being a regional premier and would improve services in the regions and in western Melbourne. There is a lot of anger in these areas and so I tip big swings. In seats like Bendigo East and Ripon, the Commonwealth Games promise inflated the Labor margin last election. The broken promise will bite Labor for sure.
It would’ve been really hard for Allan to defend this seat whilst being premier and sandbagging marginal Labor seats. I can see the potential loss and the need to counter against a motivated Nats campaign as reasons for her resignation.
@ Votante
Labor has lost regional seats in Narracan which they won in 1999 but is a complely different seat as it no longer has any of the La Trobe Valley these days so i doubt Labor would have won on current boundaries in 1999
Re Ripon important to remember i dont feel Labor actually lost the seat yet it was Lib held between 2014-2022 due to redistribution only. IMHO if Labor won it by even 5 votes in 2018 they could have got a sophomurge surge in anycase even if they never bid for Commonwealth Games i still feel Jacinta Allan would have won in 2022 if they had not bid for the games. Labor was unlucky they won the seat in 2022 and not 2018.
@Nimalan, since 1999, the regional centres of Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong have become safer for Labor. I believe it is because of ongoing economic diversification and attraction of younger, highly educated professionals. The centres have become regional hubs with more employment in the public sector, universities and health and education. There has been less reliance on agriculture or food processing. Also, they have attracted tree changers and alternative lifestyle types.
I don’t think many people were enticed by the Commonwealth Games itself but rather by the billions in infrastructure and sporting facility upgrades and tourism that they expected to come. The abandoning of the games allows the Coalition to run with the ‘Labor has neglected the regions’ narrative.
@ Votante
I agree with your points thats why methinks even if Labor does loose Bendigo East, Ripon and Eureka as expected it does not preclude Labor winning back in better times ahead with the Caveat that in these non Metro seats a personal vote is more valuable than in a Metro seat.