Bendigo East – Victoria 2026

I’m not sure if it’s confirmed or even likely, but the Nats are very keen for Andrew Lethlean to run here, given how much of a dent he was able to put into Chesters’ margin in an unfavourable Federal cycle I’d have to rate him a decent chance here even if Allan remains leader, more data points needed to confirm but my analysis of RedBridge subregional polling (and what occurred federally) tells me that Labor support is still holding up in the outer suburbs of Melbourne but the rural backlash against state Labor is beginning to spill into the provincial cities of Ballarat and Bendigo in particular. We saw just how crucial local campaigning can be here too – and if Allan is leader she won’t be around much and if she’s not I doubt she’ll be contesting.

Could allen switch to Bendigo West to save herself?

Jacinta Allan is in serious trouble here, however switching to another seat won’t be a good look either. I think metro Melbourne won’t change much but the country could swing quite violently against Labor.

Yea but when it’s a safe Labor seat they won’t care about ththat stuff they’ve Labor blindly in Bendigo west

Wonder if the Nats would have won this seat on federal results.

@Dan M, yes they did- not sure by how much though

Nats would have won this on federal results the only thkng that saved lisa chesters was the parts of macedon ranges and castlemaine which are in bendigo west.

Any new thoughts here? The latest preferred leader and favourability is from June but Allan was still well underwater, even as the party has recovered. We could well see Labor retain government but Allan personally lose her seat.

If I was Victoria Nationals and/or Andrew Lethlean, I would consider it risk in terms of make or break like a startup since Jacinta Allan has a higher profile in the Bendigo area compared to Lisa Chesters.

@marh that profile is also a double edged swrod as she gets the blame as the leader

@clarinet personlly beating allen but not labor s probably a bad outcome for the libs as its jacinta allen thats dragging labor down. changing the leader would allow them to reset and recvoer. if you gonna beat her youd want to be winning govt.

of the 17 seats the libs neeed to form govt 11 are simple but getting the other 6 is the hard part. bedigo east would be one of those 6.

@john
what seats would be the 11 that are simple? Premier is out spruiking projects in Bendigo today. With the Federal results showing a nets gain, I reckon that JA’s seat has to be a target for Lethlean to run. Would get a lot of media coverage and might throw off the Labor Party in a tight campaign if they are worried about a new leader. It would be a stupid decision for the nats not to do it.

I think the Nationals result in Bendigo really caught Labor by surprise. I think it was actually the most shocking result in the whole Federal election last year, probably even more shocking than the Labor wins in Hughes, Banks, Petrie, Braddon etc.

I don’t think Labor really campaigned in Bendigo but it gave them a wake up call, so they will put resources in here at the state election, especially as the Premiers seat. Jess Wilson is less likely to appeal here as much as Battin would’ve. There might be an above swing but I reckon it’s a Labor retain.

@Adam Thank you for summarising my own take in a nutshell. Labor won’t give this seat up without a fight and you can bet that they’ll heavily sandbag this seat come this time next year. Sure there’ll be a negative swing but the Labor campaign machine is a tough one and can make the impossible possible (aka holding onto Bendigo East).

Cancelling the Commonwealth games has hurt Labor big time here.

Especially since Jacinta Allen was responsible for them

Does anyone have any insight into why this urban seat is considered a possible gain for the Nats rather than the Liberals? Obviously because the Nationals did well in the Federal seat, but the Federal seat is also vast majority urban. What’s the appeal of the Nationals over the Liberals here?

I think because Lethlean was a strong candidate and the Nats have far more resouces than Libs. All the Nats seats are Safe so they can afford to devote resources. Also places like Elmore are rural and conservative

It’s provincial rather than ‘urban’ I would argue, and far enough from Melbourne that their local political interests are divergent from Melbourne’s to a sufficient level (unlike Geelong). The Nats face political irrelevance in time if they can’t expand their constituency into the major provincial centres too

Yeah what Maxim said. The Nats can do well in many provincial seats. Cowper, Hinkler, Wide Bay come to mind.

Bendigo saw the biggest swing to the right this year, and it came because the Nationals ran here.

Bendigo is a major regional city with 120,000 people, which makes it a significantly larger city than any of the major centres in Cowper, Hinkler or Wide Bay. It is urban in the sense that most people like on suburban blocks in a built up area, there are not large amounts of farmland etc.

For an area where there is virtually no farming, and obviously no mining etc, what is the appeal for people living in suburban Bendigo to vote for the Nationals who purport to represent rural areas and farmers, over the Liberals, other than a general ‘right wing sentiment’?

What’s your thoughts on voting habits in Mildura, Horsham, Swan Hill etc where the majority of people living on suburban blocks in towns also vote Nats in large numbers?

They are all hubs for wider rural and farming communities and their regions are sustained by agricultural activity in a way that Bendigo isn’t. Bendigo is more like a Geelong or Ballarat than a Horsham or Mildura in that respect.

Yes but their economy, infrastructure and general political incentives are not driven by Melbourne’s in the way Geelong’s are due to the prevalence of public servants and the commuter belt nature of Geelong and its surrounds. The Nats have a chance to bill themselves as a party that stands up for regional communities as a whole rather than just agricultural or primary industry based communities. You may have a perception that they are only for farmers and those directly downstream but clearly the voters here don’t share that impression.

@ Adam
Geelong is more industralised especially the Northern Suburbs around the electorate of Lara so it is much more Labor leaning than Bendigo/Ballarat. For this reason Corio (Federal electorate) is much stronger for Labor than Ballarat/Bendigo
Corio was last won by Libs in 1966 (If it was not for DLP) Labor would have held it continiously from the mid 1950s. Libs did not win Corio even in the 1975 landslide and will probably never win the seat again just like Labor will probably never win Wannon again.

Nimlan the next redistribution is probably gonna push Lara further into Geelong. At the the same time dragging Werribee most likely to the Werribee River. So the libs and or an ind should be able to win that at that stage.

@ John
Which seat are you talking about the state seat of Geelong or Federal seat of Corio?

The state seat of Lara. It will lose most of the regional parts and probably half of Lara. And move further into Geelong.

I think Corio is an interesting case where the northern parts of the seat is considered textbook case for urban poverty while the southern part of the opposite textbook case in strong optimism for Australia of Tommorow but they somehow both voted for the same party for different reasons.

@ Maxim. I understand that the voters of Bendigo must have seen the Nationals as standing up for more than just farming and agricultural, and rural interests (which is basically how they are seen nationally) as the local campaign must have had a different focus. I was wondering what that focus was and how it was able to sway conservative voters who would normally vote Liberal in a seat like this (the Nats didn’t even run last time).

@Marh, yes, this is the same Labor party that wins handily in both Northcote and in Dandenong. They have a broad appeal across different types of urban areas for different reasons.

@Adam
Yes, they can appeal to different areas. For example, Labor can attract both white‑collar Anglo public servants in the Canberra suburb of Scullin and working‑class ethnic communities in the Victorian seat of Scullin. What unites these groups — and voters along both ends of the Mernda line — is that their income is derived from their labour. For some this is manual labour; for others, such as many residents of Northcote, it is intellectual labour. Despite differences in education, income, and lifestyle, neither group derives its income primarily from ownership of capital.

In Northcote, the top three industries of employment are hospitals, higher education, and state government administration, meaning a strong concentration of public servants and relatively low levels of self‑employment. By contrast, areas like Lilydale have lower house prices and lower average incomes, yet Labor performs poorly there because the area has a high proportion of self‑employed tradespeople.

However, unless there is a massive landslide, Labor cannot simultaneously be the party of Meadow Heights (VIC) and Dover Heights (NSW). At some point they need to decide which constituency forms their core heartland. Similarly, the Liberals need to confront the reality that they cannot be the party of both Bellevue Hill and Rooty Hill.

Very well put. I guess that is why they are called the Labor Party.

@Adam

I think in the context of this upcoming state election that idea of the Nationals representing regional Victoria more broadly as opposed to just farming or primary industry really comes into play for places like Bendigo as the current state government has seemingly gotten a reputation for being quite unconcerned with regional VIC. With the Liberals going back to their inner eastern roots in Jess Wilson their message to Bendigo seems a little less compelling

@Maxim I agree and I think it has mostly stemmed from the Commonwealth Games cancellation. Though you would think having a Premier from the regions would help them, especially in her own seat that she has held for what will be 27 years. Time will tell.

Jacinta Allan hasn’t had a great year, she’ll be hoping for a turn around next.

So say the media pundits – remember how unpopular Daniel Andrews was stated to be before he increased his electoral majority vote.