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I’m not sure if it’s confirmed or even likely, but the Nats are very keen for Andrew Lethlean to run here, given how much of a dent he was able to put into Chesters’ margin in an unfavourable Federal cycle I’d have to rate him a decent chance here even if Allan remains leader, more data points needed to confirm but my analysis of RedBridge subregional polling (and what occurred federally) tells me that Labor support is still holding up in the outer suburbs of Melbourne but the rural backlash against state Labor is beginning to spill into the provincial cities of Ballarat and Bendigo in particular. We saw just how crucial local campaigning can be here too – and if Allan is leader she won’t be around much and if she’s not I doubt she’ll be contesting.
Could allen switch to Bendigo West to save herself?
Jacinta Allan is in serious trouble here, however switching to another seat won’t be a good look either. I think metro Melbourne won’t change much but the country could swing quite violently against Labor.
Yea but when it’s a safe Labor seat they won’t care about ththat stuff they’ve Labor blindly in Bendigo west
Wonder if the Nats would have won this seat on federal results.
@Dan M, yes they did- not sure by how much though
Nats would have won this on federal results the only thkng that saved lisa chesters was the parts of macedon ranges and castlemaine which are in bendigo west.
Any new thoughts here? The latest preferred leader and favourability is from June but Allan was still well underwater, even as the party has recovered. We could well see Labor retain government but Allan personally lose her seat.
If I was Victoria Nationals and/or Andrew Lethlean, I would consider it risk in terms of make or break like a startup since Jacinta Allan has a higher profile in the Bendigo area compared to Lisa Chesters.
@marh that profile is also a double edged swrod as she gets the blame as the leader
@clarinet personlly beating allen but not labor s probably a bad outcome for the libs as its jacinta allen thats dragging labor down. changing the leader would allow them to reset and recvoer. if you gonna beat her youd want to be winning govt.
of the 17 seats the libs neeed to form govt 11 are simple but getting the other 6 is the hard part. bedigo east would be one of those 6.