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I’m not a local so can someone fill me in why Suzanna Sheed lost this seat in 2022?
@SpaceFish – I’m not a local either but based on comments from the 2022 thread and ABC news:
– The Greater Shepparton Secondary College/’super school’ was really controversial in the area and a lot of residents were opposed.
– Some level of sentiment that Suzanna Sheed was a little too close to Labor, spurred on by general anti-Dan Andrews sentiment.
– The Nationals ran a really high-profile candidate in Kim O’Keeffe, who was the Mayor of Shepparton at the time and opposed to the super school.
– The floods in Shepparton that had happened that year likely helped the cause for the Nationals.
New news on the Nationals MP Kim O’Keeffe: she has announced this week that after just one term (she defeated two-term Independent MP Suzanna Sheed in 2022) she will not recontest. The Nationals will be preselecting shortly.
In possibly related news, an established-name footballer from Congupna (just north of Shepparton, and in the electorate), Collingwood’s dual-AFL-premiership player Steele Sidebottom, 35, is reported to be about to announce his AFL retirement. It’s difficult to tell if they might be connected.
Bad news for the Nats, high profile and seemingly popular local member that probably stood a very good chance of staring down a challenge from ONP, now this seat is ripe for the picking
@Maxim, that also raises the prospect that, if the Nationals lose more seats to ON than the Liberals do but together they are able to form (either minority or – less likely – majority) government, there may be very few Nationals in a coalition cabinet.
Alexander Lew who ran for Nats preselection in Murray Plains will run for Nats preselection in Shepparton. He lives in the Murray Plains electorate and he served on Stonnington Council no where near Shepparton. Shepparton mayor Shane Sali might put his hand up and he would have a good chance defending the seat from One Nation .
Very possible that Labor will end up third on the 3cp and end up being the decider on preferences. Would probably seal it for the Nats unless:
– the ON vote is so huge they can’t be overtaken.
– a high profile independent waa in the mix. Then it would be wild.
City of Greater Shepparton Councillor for the McEwen Ward and owner of Trelly’s Outdoor, Steven “Trelly” Threlfall, has announced that he is seeking One Nation’s endorsement to run for the seat of Shepparton at the upcoming state election. “Mr Threlfall has operated his fishing, hunting and outdoors business in Shepparton for 40 years”. Considering his high profile, if he’s officially endorsed as the One Nation candidate, Shepparton will likely be a One Nation gain since he will have no problem polling in the low-to-mid-40s, making it impossible for the Nationals to catch up on preferences. https://www.sheppnews.com.au/news/Steve-threlfall-is-seeking-one-nations-endorsement-at-the-state-election/
If the Nationals can’t hold a seat like this they then they can forget governing with the Liberals and expanding their electoral representation. I personally don’t see the Nationals holding here.
Apparently the ‘handsome’ mayor of Shepparton is being courted by several parties to run for pre-selection including the Nats