NAT 6.8% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Kim O’Keeffe, since 2022.
Geography
Northern Victoria. Shepparton covers the major centres of Shepparton, Mooroopna, Nathalia and Numurkah. The electorate covers most of the Greater Shepparton council area, and western parts of Moira Shire.
History
The seat of Shepparton first existed from 1945 to 1955, and again since 1967. In that time it had always been won by the Country/National Party, until 2014.
Peter Ross-Edwards held Shepparton for first the Country Party and then National Party from 1967 until his resignation in 1991.
The 1991 by-election was won by National candidate Don Kilgour. He was re-elected in 1992, 1996 and 1999, and retired in 2002.
In 2002, the National Party’s Jeanette Powell, who had served as an MLC for North-East province since 1996, won the seat in a close contest with the Liberal candidate. She was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.
Jeanette Powell served as a minister from 2010 to early 2014, when she moved to the backbench after announcing her plans to retire at the 2014 election.
The Nationals lost Shepparton in 2014 to independent candidate Suzanna Sheed. Sheed was re-elected in 2018.
Nationals candidate Kim O’Keeffe won Shepparton in 2022, defeating Sheed after eight years.
Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Kim O’Keeffe is not running for re-election.
- Cayla Fin (Labor)
- Grace Verney (Greens)
Assessment
One Nation would be hoping to unseat the Nationals here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kim O’Keeffe | Nationals | 13,242 | 32.1 | +19.0 |
| Suzanna Sheed | Independent | 12,146 | 29.4 | -9.0 |
| Cheryl Hammer | Liberal | 8,491 | 20.6 | -6.0 |
| Liam Cowan | Labor | 3,285 | 8.0 | -3.6 |
| Ian Christoe | Greens | 1,056 | 2.6 | +0.1 |
| Sueie McGrath | Democratic Labour | 882 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Alison White | Family First | 877 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Diane M. Teasdale | Freedom Party | 807 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Katherine Taylor | Animal Justice | 515 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 2,663 | 6.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kim O’Keeffe | Nationals | 23,455 | 56.8 | |
| Suzanna Sheed | Independent | 17,846 | 43.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kim O’Keeffe | Nationals | 30,704 | 74.3 | +12.6 |
| Liam Cowan | Labor | 10,597 | 25.7 | -12.6 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. The Shepparton council area has been split into central, north and south-west, with the Moira council area grouped together.
The VEC conducted a two-candidate-preferred count between the sitting independent MP and the Liberal Party, even though the final count ended up between Nationals and independent.
The Nationals topped the primary vote in all four areas, with a vote ranging from 30.3% in Shepparton South-West to 34.8% in Shepparton North.
The independent Suzanna Sheed came close to the Nationals in Shepparton South-West, with her lowest vote at 27% in Moira.
The Liberal vote ranged from 18.9% in Moira to 21.6% in Shepparton North.
| Voter group | NAT prim | IND prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shepparton Central | 30.9 | 28.4 | 21.3 | 8,273 | 20.0 |
| Moira | 34.0 | 27.0 | 18.9 | 4,037 | 9.7 |
| Shepparton South-West | 30.3 | 30.2 | 19.4 | 3,611 | 8.7 |
| Shepparton North | 34.8 | 28.9 | 21.6 | 1,300 | 3.1 |
| Pre-poll | 32.4 | 31.0 | 20.8 | 19,172 | 46.2 |
| Other votes | 32.1 | 25.6 | 20.5 | 5,069 | 12.2 |
Election results in Shepparton at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent) and primary votes for the Nationals, independent candidate Suzanna Sheed and the Liberal Party.
I’m not a local so can someone fill me in why Suzanna Sheed lost this seat in 2022?
@SpaceFish – I’m not a local either but based on comments from the 2022 thread and ABC news:
– The Greater Shepparton Secondary College/’super school’ was really controversial in the area and a lot of residents were opposed.
– Some level of sentiment that Suzanna Sheed was a little too close to Labor, spurred on by general anti-Dan Andrews sentiment.
– The Nationals ran a really high-profile candidate in Kim O’Keeffe, who was the Mayor of Shepparton at the time and opposed to the super school.
– The floods in Shepparton that had happened that year likely helped the cause for the Nationals.
New news on the Nationals MP Kim O’Keeffe: she has announced this week that after just one term (she defeated two-term Independent MP Suzanna Sheed in 2022) she will not recontest. The Nationals will be preselecting shortly.
In possibly related news, an established-name footballer from Congupna (just north of Shepparton, and in the electorate), Collingwood’s dual-AFL-premiership player Steele Sidebottom, 35, is reported to be about to announce his AFL retirement. It’s difficult to tell if they might be connected.
Bad news for the Nats, high profile and seemingly popular local member that probably stood a very good chance of staring down a challenge from ONP, now this seat is ripe for the picking
@Maxim, that also raises the prospect that, if the Nationals lose more seats to ON than the Liberals do but together they are able to form (either minority or – less likely – majority) government, there may be very few Nationals in a coalition cabinet.
Alexander Lew who ran for Nats preselection in Murray Plains will run for Nats preselection in Shepparton. He lives in the Murray Plains electorate and he served on Stonnington Council no where near Shepparton. Shepparton mayor Shane Sali might put his hand up and he would have a good chance defending the seat from One Nation .
Very possible that Labor will end up third on the 3cp and end up being the decider on preferences. Would probably seal it for the Nats unless:
– the ON vote is so huge they can’t be overtaken.
– a high profile independent waa in the mix. Then it would be wild.
City of Greater Shepparton Councillor for the McEwen Ward and owner of Trelly’s Outdoor, Steven “Trelly” Threlfall, has announced that he is seeking One Nation’s endorsement to run for the seat of Shepparton at the upcoming state election. “Mr Threlfall has operated his fishing, hunting and outdoors business in Shepparton for 40 years”. Considering his high profile, if he’s officially endorsed as the One Nation candidate, Shepparton will likely be a One Nation gain since he will have no problem polling in the low-to-mid-40s, making it impossible for the Nationals to catch up on preferences. https://www.sheppnews.com.au/news/Steve-threlfall-is-seeking-one-nations-endorsement-at-the-state-election/
If the Nationals can’t hold a seat like this they then they can forget governing with the Liberals and expanding their electoral representation. I personally don’t see the Nationals holding here.
Apparently the ‘handsome’ mayor of Shepparton is being courted by several parties to run for pre-selection including the Nats