ALP 7.2%
Incumbent MP
Michaela Settle, since 2022. Previously member for Buninyong 2018-2022.
Geography
Western Victoria. Eureka covers southeastern parts of the City of Ballarat and most of Moorabool Shire and Golden Plains Shire. In addition to Ballarat, the electorate covers Bacchus Marsh, Buninyong, Ballan, Haddon, Meredith and Mount Clear.
History
Eureka is a new name for the electorate covering eastern Ballarat, replacing Buninyong, which replaced Ballarat East in 2014.
Ballarat East first existed as a Victorian Legislative Assembly district from 1859 until 1927. It elected two members from 1859 until 1889, when it became a single-member district. The single member district was held by Liberal and Nationalist members from 1889 until 1924, when it was won by the ALP. The seat was abolished in 1927.
Ballarat East was recreated in 1992, and won by the Liberal Party’s Barry Traynor. He won with a slim 1.6% margin in 1992, which was cut to 1% in 1996, before he lost to the ALP’s Geoff Howard in 1999.
Howard increased his margin to 7.6% in 2002 before it was cut to 6.6% in 2006, and cut further to 1.5% in 2010. Howard was re-elected with an increased margin to the renamed seat of Buninyong in 2014.
Howard retired in 2018, and Labor’s Michaela Settle won the seat. Settle was re-elected to represent the renamed seat of Eureka in 2022.
Assessment
Labor is in serious danger of losing this seat to either the Coalition or One Nation.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michaela Settle | Labor | 18,531 | 41.0 | -3.6 |
| Paul Tatchell | Liberal | 14,320 | 31.6 | +0.7 |
| Sam McColl | Greens | 4,887 | 10.8 | +1.7 |
| Tabitha Rickard | Democratic Labour | 1,821 | 4.0 | +3.4 |
| Wendy Morrison | Animal Justice | 1,519 | 3.4 | -0.5 |
| Adrian Garcia | Family First | 1,233 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Nicola Reid | Independent | 1,083 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Anthony Joseph Giampaolo | Freedom Party | 967 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Michael Ray | Independent | 666 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Mark William Banwell | Independent | 220 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 3,297 | 6.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michaela Settle | Labor | 25,869 | 57.2 | -2.4 |
| Paul Tatchell | Liberal | 19,378 | 42.8 | +2.4 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Ballarat, north-east, south-east and west. Most of the population lies in Ballarat or Bacchus Marsh (in the north-east).
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 52.1% in the north-east to 64.1% in Ballarat. Labor polled 50.1% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.9% in the west to 15.3% in Ballarat.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Ballarat | 15.3 | 64.1 | 6,870 | 15.1 |
| North-East | 9.6 | 52.1 | 6,211 | 13.7 |
| South-East | 8.4 | 53.3 | 3,005 | 6.6 |
| West | 5.9 | 49.9 | 625 | 1.4 |
| Pre-poll | 9.9 | 56.6 | 23,209 | 51.0 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 57.8 | 5,576 | 12.3 |
Election results in Eureka at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
A lot of local anger at REZs, the volunteer services levy and the state of the roads in these parts, the works on Ballarat station raising eyebrows too, definitely on the target list for the Coalition and I’ve heard at least 1 or 2 promising candidates have come forward for pre-selection
This is another of those seats that the LNP must win if they wish to from majority.
SpaceFish, it is going to be towards the upper end of their targets if they’re aiming for a majority.
Also, Prahran will likely flip. After the Bendigo federal election result and Werribee by-election, it could be unpredictable and could swing more than the average in metro Melbourne.
Yes. I’m certain they should put in a good show here. I can see them winning the 8 marginals. Eureka, Asswood and Sunbury. That gets them to 39. They then need to find 6 more seats.
Given the state of the polls I can’t see that happening.
Myrniong based Emma Muir is the Liberal candidate for this seat. She was named Moorabool shire citizen of the year in 2024 and has campaigned against the Western Renewables Link.
I’m not sure how big the swing will be to the Libs in the Ballarat booths, the seat takes in some inner suburbs of Ballarat . I’m predicting the One nation vote will be high in Ballan and Bacchus Marsh and the towns closer to Geelong.
In rural areas, there seems to be an interesting trend where voting patterns of each towns tends to be all over the place such as Rokewood votes strongly for Liberal but just 10km North, the town Dereel votes strongly for Labor.
Have been seeing some ONP campaigning trying to wedge the Coalition on the Ausnet towers/WRL issue so interesting to see if Muir’s selection can dent some of their impact on this race
One of the reasons why Victorian Labor has had an inbuilt advantage since 1999 and even in 2010 when Victorian Liberals were only able to win the smallest majority is due to its strength in the Provincial seats like this one. Of the Provincial seats won in 1999 only Narracan was lost and that is due to very different circumstances. I actually feel that Labor actually never lost Ripon it was only won in 2014 and 2018 due to redistribution and no sitting Labor MP.
At the 2018 election the Victorian Liberals announced a very good policy of Faster Regional rail. Matthew Guy said he wanted Victoria to be a “State of Cities” rather than a “City State”. IMHO Victorian Labor would have been far wiser if the annouced a policy like instead of SRL. It would have been less fiscally risky can be done in stages and some parts could have been delayed due to inflation. It would have been politically benefical longer term for Victorian Labor as it would have allowed for more people to relocate outside Melbourne especially White Collar Professionals who are university educated and this would have been better politically. It would have also meant there will be less backlash on Activity Centres etc. It would have been harder for Coalition to attack and use a wedge issue in the Red Wall.
It seems now the majority of the 1999 Provincial seats are under serious threat of falling. I think Victorian Labor assumed they were now rock solid and they could do the same with Sandbelt and be in government in perperunity if the Provincial seats fall and either Labor justs holds by a thread in the Sandbelt or even loses them i think there will be a lot of blame game/recriminations about this logic/gamble Victorian Labor made
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-03/fast-regional-trains-geelong-melbourne-coalition-election-pledge/10332060