Incumbent MLCs
- Melina Bath (Nationals), since 2015
- Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers), since 2014
- Renee Heath (Liberal), since 2022
- Tom McIntosh (Labor), since 2022
- Harriet Shing (Labor), since 2014
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Bass | ALP 0.2% | Hastings | ALP 1.4% | Narracan | LIB 12.9% vs IND |
| Evelyn | LIB 5.4% | Monbulk | ALP 7.6% | Nepean | LIB 6.4% |
| Gippsland East | NAT 24.6% | Mornington | LIB 0.7% vs IND | Pakenham | ALP 0.4% |
| Gippsland South | NAT 15.6% | Morwell | NAT 4.4% |
Eastern Victoria covers regional and rural areas to the east of Melbourne all the way to Gippsland, as well as some seats on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne.
Four out of eleven seats are held by Labor. Four seats are held by the Liberal Party, while three are held by the Nationals.
Five seats cover areas well away from Melbourne: Morwell and Narracan in the Latrobe Valley, Gippsland East and Gippsland South in the Gippsland area, and Bass on the eastern side of Western Port.
The electorates of Hastings, Mornington and Nepean all cover areas on the Mornington Peninsula at the south-eastern edge of the Melbourne urban area. Evelyn, Monbulk and Pakenham cover semi-urban areas on the eastern fringe of Melbourne.
History
The Eastern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
Eastern Victoria produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 election – two Liberal, two Labor and one National.
The Liberal Party lost one of their two seats in 2014, with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning a seat.
The 2014 result was repeated in 2018 and 2022: two Labor, one Liberal, one Nationals and one from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal/Nationals | 172,208 | 36.4 | +2.3 | 2.183 |
| Labor | 125,481 | 26.5 | -7.1 | 1.591 |
| Greens | 37,795 | 8.0 | +1.3 | 0.479 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 19,654 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 0.249 |
| Democratic Labour | 18,117 | 3.8 | +2.3 | 0.230 |
| One Nation | 16,964 | 3.6 | +3.6 | 0.215 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 14,217 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 0.180 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12,130 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 0.154 |
| Hinch’s Justice | 9,500 | 2.0 | -2.5 | 0.120 |
| Animal Justice | 8,413 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 0.107 |
| Freedom Party | 8,385 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 0.106 |
| Family First | 7,634 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 0.097 |
| Sack Dan Andrews | 3,984 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.051 |
| Reason | 3,498 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.044 |
| United Australia | 3,382 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.043 |
| Others | 11,956 | 2.5 | 0.152 | |
| Informal | 14,948 | 3.1 |
Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal/National team retained two seats and Labor won one seat.
Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last seat:
- Harriet Shing (ALP) – 0.588
- Mat Morgan (GRN) – 0.496
- Thomas Forrest (LGC) – 0.395
- Warren Pickering (ON) – 0289
- Jeff Bourman (SFF) – 0.284
- Philip Semmel (DLP) – 0.236
- David Burgess (LIB) – 0.200
- Greg Hansford (FPV) – 0.193
- Rob McCathie (LDP) – 0.159
- Ruth Stanfield (DHJ) – 0.132
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party preferences flowed strongly to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers:
- Shing (ALP) – 0.590
- Morgan (GRN) – 0.499
- Forrest (LGC) – 0.396
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.388
- Pickering (ON) – 0.292
- Semmel (DLP) – 0.237
- Burgess (LIB) – 0.203
- Hansford (FPV) – 0.197
- McCathie (LDP) – 0.160
Liberal Democrats preferences flowed to the Shooters:
- Shing (ALP) – 0.590
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.527
- Morgan (GRN) – 0.499
- Forrest (LGC) – 0.398
- Pickering (ON) – 0.297
- Semmel (DLP) – 0.238
- Burgess (LIB) – 0.207
- Hansford (FPV) – 0.201
About half of Freedom Party preferences flowed to One Nation, and most of the rest flowed to the DLP:
- Shing (ALP) – 0.591
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.530
- Morgan (GRN) – 0.500
- Forrest (LGC) – 0.399
- Pickering (ON) – 0.397
- Semmel (DLP) – 0.317
- Burgess (LIB) – 0.210
About two thirds of Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation:
- Shing (ALP) – 0.591
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.558
- Pickering (ON) – 0.536
- Morgan (GRN) – 0.501
- Forrest (LGC) – 0.401
- Semmel (DLP) – 0.319
About two thirds of DLP preferences flowed to the Shooters:
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.776
- Pickering (ON) – 0.619
- Shing (ALP) – 0.593
- Morgan (GRN) – 0.504
- Forrest (LGC) – 0.402
Legalise Cannabis preferences flowed very strongly to Labor:
- Shing (ALP) – 0.947
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.781
- Pickering (ON) – 0.620
- Morgan (GRN) – 0.529
Greens preferences elected Labor’s second member:
- Shing (ALP) – 1.380
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.802
- Pickering (ON) – 0.622
Labor’s surplus mostly flowed to the Shooters over One Nation, electing Jeff Bourman to the final seat:
- Bourman (SFF) – 1.151
- Pickering (ON) – 0.637
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
Regional breakdown
The Liberal/National ticket topped the poll in Eastern Victoria. This ticket topped the primary vote in nine out of eleven districts in the region.
The Liberal/National vote was highest in Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Nepean and Mornington. It was lowest in Pakenham and Monbulk.
Labor topped the poll in two seats, with Labor’s primary vote highest in Pakenham, Hastings and Monbulk. The Greens did particularly well in Monbulk.
Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Victoria region
@ Ben Raue
I this a typo
“Labor topped the poll in two seats, with Labor’s primary vote highest in Pakenham, Hastings and Morwell.” Labor did beter in Monbulk than Morwell.
Probably need to get rid of electoral regions when Mernda and mildura are in the same region (Northern victoria). Dont see whats wrong with NSW system
Thanks Nimalan, fixed.
3 Coalition
1 Lab
1 ON
Even if Labor win government I suspect this time they could be looking at a much less friendly upper house
cant see a 4-1 split here. il say 2 coalition 1 sff 1 lab and the last seat to be a tossup between ON, LAB, GRN and LGC. given there are 3 left parties id say those 3 will help each other beat ON.
@ John
could ONP beat SFF for a second right wing seat.
@nimalan doubtful SFF will get preferences long before ONP. especially from left of centre parties. but it is possible yes.
will be 1 liberal 1 national 1 labor. 2 remaining seats will be a tossup between SFF, ONP and (insert whatever left of centre party can get the best preference deal here)
sry wrong section
Good point John
@ Up the dragons
The legislative council being divided into 8 regions with 5 representatives each is set in the Victorian constitution so can’t be changed without a referendum. Not sure the vic gov will bother over something most people won’t really care about.