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Labor hold, Jordan Crugnale is a strong local member and I would say given the population growth in the western part of the seat which benefit Labor.
This seat is trending Labor due to population growth in Clyde and sea changers in Bass Coast but it only takes a small swing to Flip so if the Libs cant win may as well give up
If the Nats run again with Tassari they could be a chance.
As an avid reader of the South Gippsland Sentinel Times, Jordan Crugnale has a real talent for being absent when there is a difficult issue such as the Wonthaggi land botch up, bad roads and the Inverloch sea wall but happy if there is an envelope to be opened. After two terms she can’t hide anymore. As for roads, this is region where some of the highway pot holes have been given names!!
I think the libs will have a good chance here after redistribution probably not so much
Is there a chance that Deb Leonard may run here? Her base is on Phillip Island after all.
Though I would say that she wouldn’t do too well in the Clyde end of this seat. Not really an independent-minded area in comparison to other part of the electorate.
The Emergency Sevices and Volunteers Fund (ESVF) will be very unpopular amongst many voters especially in the rural parts of this electorate. There was literally a protest outside her electorate office. Labor won the seat in 2022 by only 202 votes. Without a temporary freeze for the rate of ESVF for all primary production properties, the number of people in the electorate that would have been affected by the increased rate of ESVF will be hundreds more than 101. The freeze is only for the 2025-2026 financial year (the 2025-2026 financial year will end before the state election) and with no guarantee that it will be extended. In the 2026 VIC election, Bass should be won by the Liberals or Nationals depending on which party runs a stronger campaign.
Given the urban nature here I doubt the Nats can win this but never say never