Bass – Victoria 2026

Labor hold, Jordan Crugnale is a strong local member and I would say given the population growth in the western part of the seat which benefit Labor.

This seat is trending Labor due to population growth in Clyde and sea changers in Bass Coast but it only takes a small swing to Flip so if the Libs cant win may as well give up

If the Nats run again with Tassari they could be a chance.

As an avid reader of the South Gippsland Sentinel Times, Jordan Crugnale has a real talent for being absent when there is a difficult issue such as the Wonthaggi land botch up, bad roads and the Inverloch sea wall but happy if there is an envelope to be opened. After two terms she can’t hide anymore. As for roads, this is region where some of the highway pot holes have been given names!!

I think the libs will have a good chance here after redistribution probably not so much

Is there a chance that Deb Leonard may run here? Her base is on Phillip Island after all.

Though I would say that she wouldn’t do too well in the Clyde end of this seat. Not really an independent-minded area in comparison to other part of the electorate.

The Emergency Sevices and Volunteers Fund (ESVF) will be very unpopular amongst many voters especially in the rural parts of this electorate. There was literally a protest outside her electorate office. Labor won the seat in 2022 by only 202 votes. Without a temporary freeze for the rate of ESVF for all primary production properties, the number of people in the electorate that would have been affected by the increased rate of ESVF will be hundreds more than 101. The freeze is only for the 2025-2026 financial year (the 2025-2026 financial year will end before the state election) and with no guarantee that it will be extended. In the 2026 VIC election, Bass should be won by the Liberals or Nationals depending on which party runs a stronger campaign.

Given the urban nature here I doubt the Nats can win this but never say never

Jordan Crugnale has announced on Facebook that she will not be contesting the state election in November 2026. Interestingly many Labor MPs holding marginal seats have decided to retire at the 2026 state election rather than defending seats they could have otherwise hold for Labor. https://www.facebook.com/JordanCrugnaleMP/posts/pfbid02k3CaejzWwsKj7rudsigPKmDNdPuhmQ7qCKwWk8Xqw22S1ccL14UE49FYG4NUJqnpl

Another easy pickup for the libs. They must have seen the writing on the wall.

I dont this Labor would have held this even if Crugnale ran again it only has a 0.2% margin.

This is probably gonna help the libs focus their resources on seats like Ashwood Sunbury and Niddrie

Yep the rats are deserting the ship before it sinks. That’s all the marginal seats which have been represented by Labor for more then 1 term.

Nimalan if Crignale held this then the libs probably lost about 5 seats

The election is still well over a year away but so far, 4 Labor MPs and 5 Coalition MPs have confirmed they’ll retire. The 4 Labor MPs all called it quits within a week and a half.

Bass should be a Liberal pickup regardless of whether the Nationals run.

@ John
My personal view is that Libs will win about 12-13 seats from Labor at the momennt. They will win Hastings even if Paul Mercurio runs again. It will be seats like Niddrie, Sunbury, Sydenham and Eureka that will determine fate of government. I think Labor will win approx 43 seats same number as 2010 with about 4 Greens (loose Richmond, Gain Footscary).

Every which way I cut it, the party that wins Bentleigh will form Government. It is a seat that demographically covers a lot of bases. If you win Bentleigh you have probably also won enough of seats like Niddrie, Sunbury, Sydenham, Eureka and Bass to either have a majority or be in a position to form Government with Green and / or Teal support.

This should be as easy gain as the Libs will get in 26. The combined Lib/Nat vote last time was higher than the combined Labor/Green vote – proves anything can happen when the primary votes are in the low 30s.

Libs need a candidate that’s not a ‘Brown’.

I wonder if Tully Fletcher who ran for the ALP in Monash will put his hand up in Bass or Pakenham. He ended up doing much better than would have been expected. He is from either Wonthaggi or Cape Paterson. He came across as politically very ambitious.

Redistributed, given the weak state of polling for Labor they are unlikely to spend heavily to prop up Fletcher in the general election. They may just hang him out to dry and focus their sandbagging efforts on the other vulnerable seats with higher margins (those in the 5%+ range like Sunbury, Melton and Eureka as what Nimalan mentioned).

@ Pollster
I think there is a chance Labor will hold Bentleigh even if Nick Staikos retires. Bentleigh has been well look after by the State Labor government, Metro Tunnel, Level Crossings, Good Schools, Low Crime etc. In Sunbury/Niddire they will be anger due to Airport Rail being delayed. Sydenham there will be anger due to Western Highway and Melton Electrification. Labor should be fine in the Narre Warrens even if there are open seats as the seats have been looked after well.

@nimalan ive got them on winning 11 atm there are a few outliers which will depend on circumstances.
Bass
Pakenham
Hastings
Ripon
Glen Waverley
Bayswater
Yan Yean
Melton
Ashwood
Sunbury
Eureka

they need an additional six after that and unless the polls vastly im prove i cant see them getting to it

i can see seats like Niddrie, Bendigo East (NATS) and Ringwood (IND LABOR) being won. Monbulk Syeneyham and South Barwon Maybe. they might get Werribee but i think and ind might be better placed to win that. if Joe Garra can get up in Point Cook. Richmond will be determined by liberal preferences as will Pascoe Vale, Preston and Northcote. Footscray will be a close seat. If the libs preference the Greens there its probably a sure thing.

pollster Sydneyham, Sunbury bass and eureka will fall before bentleigh. i think its one of those seats the ibs will only ever get close in and neer actually win short of a landslide.

Possible that Teal Deb Leonard could use her war chest for a run at Bass. I would be very surprised if she spent what she had raised – if she had it didn’t look that it had been spent or she was ripped off somewhere.

@ John
In addition to your 11 if i give Niddrie that is 12 and Ringwood 13. I think Monbulk is a lower chance even if it is an open seat. It was an open seat last time and had no swing despite James Merlino retiring. Monbulk has more Pro-Liberal boundaries than in 2010 but has a better Labor margin. It is also more irreligious, socially progressive, very low crime rates so i dont see it in play. There is also little need for infrastucture there. The next 3 seats are Sydenham, Bendigo East both are chances so there is 15 in an ideal state. If Paul Hopper wins Werribee and Jospeh Youhana wins Greenvale that is a possible pathway to a minority Coalition government with two red wall indepdents. Normally, i would say South Barwon is a left-trending socially progessive seat but due to Darren Cheeseman maybe a swing there so that is also a possibility

Tbh they’d be better off leaving Jacinta Allen where she is unless it’s the difference between making govt

Jordan Crugnale has announced her retirement next state election.

Would say this seat is very very likely to flip to the Liberals as a result.

Oh, didn’t notice that @Joseph already posted.

James if they don’t wi. Here they got proble s