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@Votante: Since in the vast majority of statewide polls, Labor’s primary vote is ahead of or at least tied with that of the Coalition or One Nation’s, I don’t think it’s likely for Pakenham to become a ONP vs LIB contest. If Labor starts to poll third on primary votes behind One Nation and the Coalition more often, then Labor would be at serious risk of finishing third in many of its own seats (including Pakenham), especially in outer suburban and regional areas.
In a lot of these seats if Labor poll third on the primaries , there will probably be enough Greens and VS preferences to get them up into second place. That is of course unless the Labor totally collapses into the teens.
In what are currently uber safe Nationals seats, Labor will poll third and stay there. Labor and Greens preferences might save the Nats bacon in a few seats and get them over the line.
While i clearly expect Labor to loose the seat, i dont think Labor will do so bad that it will drop out of the 2CP. I feel along with the Sandbelt, Labor is probbaly doing much better in the Outer South East (Pakenham/Cranbourne) corridor than other areas of the state. At the Federal Level this corridor had the greatest swings to Labor (Hotham, Bruce, Holt and La Trobe). I feel Labor will get 27% of the Primary vote Greens at 6% with about 4% for other left parties (Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) that should be enough to ensure Labor stays in the 2CP. The urbanisation and ethnic diversification of this seat with the new housing estates is probably giving Labor a stronger floor even if this is a Liberal leaning seat compared to the state as a whole.
“Pakenham, Point Cook, Frankston, Narre Warren North, Cranbourne, St Albans, Clarinda, Albert Park and Wendouree are all winnable (more or less) seats with no candidates”
The first five of these are definitely winnable so not having a candidate at this stage is not a good look. Last time, as I recall there were a lot of issues with the Liberal candidate in Narre Warren North. Is there some sort of factional issue in that part of Outer Melbourne? Pakenham, Frankston and possibly Cranbourne could be ON chances. Albert Park could be a possible Greens pick up if the Labor vote tanks, and Wendouree could be a ON chance if the Libs come third, but probably not a Liberal win.
Re: Bendigo West I have heard the Libs are stepping aside to let the Nats contest alone in the hope Lethlean’s popularity spills over to the metro Bendigo booths there