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Labor performed well at the federal level here however, it does not mean it will translate to a Labor victory here especially how this seat will be an open race.
Population growth is helping Labor here but only a small swing is required to flip.
Is it confirmed that the Labor MP will retire? I was being told by an insider for all of last year they were bracing for a by-election but then heard more recent talk that she may re-contest!
Regardless it’s probably a little presumptuous to assume Labor’s outer suburban success Federally will be replicated at the state ballot like for like. Having said that the margin from 2022 might be a little artificially close due to covid issues? If the Liberals continue to struggle with internal crap they are not guaranteed to flip here