ALP 0.4%
Incumbent MP
Emma Vulin, since 2022.
Geography
Pakenham covers western parts of the Cardinia council area, including Pakenham and Officer.
History
The current seat of Pakenham was created at the 2022 election, taking in parts of the former seat of Gembrook. The electoral district of Pakenham previously existed from 1992 until 2002, during which time it was held by Liberal MP Rob Maclellan. Maclellan retired in 2002, when Pakenham was abolished.
The seats of Bass and Gembrook were created in 2002.
Bass was held by the Liberal Party’s Ken Smith from 2002 until 2014. Smith served as Speaker from 2010 until 2014, when he retired.
Bass was won in 2014 by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter. Paynter lost after one term in 2018 to Labor candidate Jordan Crugnale. Crugnale still holds the seat of Bass.
Labor’s Tammy Lobato won Gembrook in 2002, and held the seat until 2010.
Lobato lost Gembrook to Liberal candidate Brad Battin in 2010, and he was re-elected twice. Battin switched to the new seat of Berwick in 2022, and was elected Liberal leader in 2024.
Labor candidate Emma Vulin narrowly won Pakenham in 2022.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Emma Vulin is not running for re-election.
- Radmila Dyson (Liberal)
- Raymond French (Independent)
- Stephanie Grigg (Victorian Socialists)
- Warren Pickering (One Nation)
- Alessandra Soliven (Labor)
- Nasser Yawari (Greens)
Assessment
This seat is extremely marginal and Labor would be doing very well if they were to hold on. One Nation would have ambitions to do well in this outer suburban electorate.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Emma Vulin | Labor | 13,151 | 33.8 | -11.5 |
| David Farrelly | Liberal | 12,605 | 32.4 | -9.8 |
| Brett Owen | Independent | 3,157 | 8.1 | +8.1 |
| Michelle Maibaum | Greens | 2,571 | 6.6 | -0.8 |
| Elissa Smith | Legalise Cannabis | 2,010 | 5.2 | +5.2 |
| Angela Siladji | One Nation | 1,321 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Christopher Gore | Family First | 1,218 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Hannah Pledger-Firth | Animal Justice | 978 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Sammi Clarke | Freedom Party | 956 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Sarasadat Sarkeshik | Democratic Labour | 666 | 1.7 | +0.1 |
| Rajvir Singh Sagoo | Independent | 234 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 3,089 | 7.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Emma Vulin | Labor | 19,587 | 50.4 | -1.8 |
| David Farrelly | Liberal | 19,280 | 49.6 | +1.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. The populated centre of the seat has been split between Lakeside and Pakenham, while the spare northern booths have been grouped.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in both Pakenham and Lakeside, while the Liberal Party won 51.4% in the north. The Liberals also won 52.2% of the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pakenham | 52.5 | 5,898 | 15.1 |
| Lakeside | 55.7 | 5,797 | 14.8 |
| North | 38.6 | 933 | 2.4 |
| Pre-poll | 47.8 | 20,854 | 53.4 |
| Other votes | 51.0 | 5,585 | 14.3 |
Election results in Pakenham at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Labor performed well at the federal level here however, it does not mean it will translate to a Labor victory here especially how this seat will be an open race.
Population growth is helping Labor here but only a small swing is required to flip.
Is it confirmed that the Labor MP will retire? I was being told by an insider for all of last year they were bracing for a by-election but then heard more recent talk that she may re-contest!
Regardless it’s probably a little presumptuous to assume Labor’s outer suburban success Federally will be replicated at the state ballot like for like. Having said that the margin from 2022 might be a little artificially close due to covid issues? If the Liberals continue to struggle with internal crap they are not guaranteed to flip here
Unsurprisingly, Emma Vulin has announced that she isn’t recontesting, but intends to complete her term.
This was an open seat last time with no sitting MP. Whilist i expect a LIB win due to small margin i think swing will be very small and much less than state average. Outside chance of a status quo result due to Population growth/ethnic diversification
eithout a sitting mp this will be easy pickings for the libs. despite the swing against the libs last time they manage to pickup votes here. the libs should comfortably win this with at least a 4% swing
One would expect this to go to the Liberals, but it is worth reminding ourselves that we all wrote this off as a Liberal notional gain in 2022, and we were wrong.
We all wrote this off in 2022. Important to remember that State Labor is more popular here s they have delivered a lot and it is demographically trending Labor as it urbanises. There was a huge swing to Federal Labor in La Trobe unlike Hawke, Gorton. I think maybe 2% swing here max for Libs.
Everyone said last time it was pick up number 1 for Libs and that Labor wrote of this seat.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/pakenham2022/comment-page-1#comments
how could it be a liberal notional gain? it was a notional labr seat meaning the liberals would have to win it? as someone who was unimpressed with the liberal campaign they did better here then they did elsewhere in the state where they went backwards verall. this is the 3rd marginal labor seat with a retring member and labors second most marginal against the libs (3rd overall) if they arent winning here they probably have been wiped out. the fact that brad battins seat is just next door means they should probably bank this one
The Libs got a TPP swing to them statewide of 3% last time. They went backwards in seat count but not in terms of TPP. Swing was lower than statewide last time so on Cook PVI this seat trended Labor last time.
correction the coalition had a swing of 2.3% the nats did most of the heavy lifting. the fact the libs seat count went backwards. means they went backwards. it just means they got swings in seats they already hold.
yes typo sorry it was 2.3% Nats gained 3 seat which meant overall Coalition went forwards. The libs got swing in seats they already held, very safe Labor seats in the NW Melbourne such as Greenvale, St Albans. They also picked up Hawthorn, Nepean
but lost bass notionally and lost hastings despite having a sitting mp. although i did see that coming due to the star candidate. labor have 8 marginal seats vs liberals. the libs have to win at least 6 of them this election. ive excluded ripon due to its historically low swings and yan yean because it a historically labor seat that they probably cant hold long term or even short term due to redistribution upcoming. if they dont get those 6 marginals (3 of which have no sitting members) then this election is a failure. also ive updatedmy prediction for yan yean based on recent news of a housing estate in beveridge and the fact my oven shouldnt need that much of a fixer that yan yean will indeed lose Nimbulk but will probably shed parts of Mernda as well. i think it should be renamed Whittlesea also. this would also leave it still competitive for the libs. in regards to Kalkallo in addtiion to shedding mitchell it could probly lose parts of Yuroke or even cragieburn as well depending on where the numbers fall.
C0ok pvi over counts
Counts 55 /45 as 11
Not the 5% need to win
umm what?
@Nimalan: I calculated Pakenham’s 2025 federal results. In the 2025 federal election, booths within Pakenham recorded a Liberal 2PP of 51.27%. If you take into account declaration votes, my estimated Liberal 2PP for Pakenham at the 2025 federal election would be 52.11%. Polls considently show that Labor support at the VIC state level is much weaker than at the federal level in Victoria. For VIC Labor to hold Pakenkam Labor needs to do significantly better than their federal counterparts, which is not possible without a popular sitting Labor MP.
@Nicholas and @Nimalan: Labor 2PP in Pakenham going into the 2022 VIC state election was 2.2%, therefore Labor could withstand a small swing against it and still hold the seat. The last Newspoll before the 2022 VIC election recorded a Labor 2PP of 54.5% or 2.8% swing against Labor. 2.8% was slightly higher than Pakenham’s margin, which means a below statewide-average swing could see Labor narrowly holding the seat and it did. Labor’s margin in Pakenham is now only 0.4%, which means even a below-statewide average swing against Labor will see Labor lose Pakenham. Without a popular sitting Labor MP, demographic changes alone won’t help Labor defy a minimum 2-3% statewide swing against it.
Joseph the npstatewide swung ended up being 2.3% just over the target here in Pakenham however they only achieved a 1.8% swing. However 1.8% was probably the avg liberal swing stateside. The nats lifted the average a bit over the libs and they got a swing in Pakenham and the member has now retired just after one term so maybe the writing is on the wall and she wants to go out with her dignity. The only way the libs don’t win here is if brad battin runs over a nun on his way to parliament. The redistribution will likely be favourable in Pakenham meaning they would be able to hold it
The MP for Pakenham was diagnosed with a pretty serious medical condition. There is a non-zero chance she might not be able to serve out the term since it is over a year away, but that is a discussion for another day. She was diagnosed after winning the seat, so presumably would have stood again had that situation not occurred.
Whether Battin ran the nun over or someone else, you can bet he would set up a mic and give commentary whilst the event was still taking place. I see 12 marginal seats with 3-4 of them being Lab v Grn contests plus Prahran. Liberals have a couple of seats under teal threat, including Mornington. We shall see if they are contested again.
Is David Farrelly contesting again? In the last campaign, the Pakenham Hospital delay was a key focus of the campaign.
Dpthanks didn’t know that. Any idea what condition. Curious. The libs will lose prahran either to Labor or the greens the left vote is simply too much for the libs to overcome when they preference wpeach other barring some miracle. I can see Labor losing at least 6 of those marginals to the libs. Ripon would need a higher then usual variance. Though the bays being in Te contest and the recent bush summit I think it will flip. Yan yean I think the libs can get too. The greens will be a good shot at footscray given their may result in Fraser. Thye could easily lose those other 3 too. It will depend on lib preferences. Also guns might lose Richmond.
@ Jospeh
thanks for calculating. I am surprised that Pakenham will only be 51.3% on Federal results and only 0.8% less than the La Trobe results. La Trobe has some rock solid Liberal areas mainly in the state seat of Narracan and to a lesser extent around Koo Wee Rup which is not in Pakenham so i would have thought Labor may have won it on Federal results. I still expect Libs to win Pakenham but i stand by the point that Labor is more popular in SE Melbourne than NW Melbourne. I think La Trobe is still a long term target for Labor as it urbanises.
Unlike other new housing estates in Melbourne Growth Areas which is South-Asian and CALD Heavy, the Pakenham-Officer Area is Anglo-heavy and less CALD and not mention the old town areas of Pakenham which certainly very Anglo. This is one major factor why Liberals still do well here.
Marh there is a South Asian community in Officer not as much as Clyde though. Sunbury is a growth area which is not CALD
Nimalan I would argue the opposite based on the liberal seat count is 0 in new Melbourne.
Can’t exactly tell if it was clarified on here, however Emma Vulin has announced her retirement next state election due to her MND.
Would say this seat is very very likely to flip to the Liberals as a result.
Yea alreadyposted. Another LNP unless they shit the bed again
Just be on the lookout for any nuns .. Polling has improved as of late for Labor and if the election were held tomorrow they probably would still hold government by a slim margin. That said, we are over a year away so the situation is fluid. Liberal internal dynamics could always break open.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/04/victorian-liberal-party-reselections-unusual-step-extending-deadline-search-for-future-mps
I think the lnp needs a uniformswing of over 8% so it’s doubtful they can wrest govt in one term
It is a big ask for the Liberals. Add to that, there is a chance they will lose Prahran and/or Hawthorn.
I think prahan is gone.
Cardinia shire mayor Jack Kowarzik is frontrunner for Labor preselection apparently
Good move still liberal gain is the most likely outcome. Labor has no room to spare and can’t afford a swing of any magnitude.
I would like to add that Emma Vulin is a very popular MP not just in her electorate, but across the Parliament. She is respected and admired by politicians from all sides of the political spectrum for the courage and resilience she has shown in battling MND and raising awareness of the disease. I would argue she could retain Pakenham in November 2026 if she recontests given her personal popularity and the increasing urbanisation of the electorate, however MND means she may not be able to serve another 4-year term if she is re-elected. She has made the right decision to retire not just in the interest of her own health, but also her constituents. I wish Emma all the best in her fight against MND.
Without a popular Labor MP and an ultra-thin margin, Pakenham is now an almost certain Liberal gain.
I’m curious how Labor’s fortunes will play out here with the pollution growth and now the Pakenham Line being taken off the city loop.
It’ll still go to the Liberals, however the swing mightn’t be as strong as in regional Victoria.
23 year old staffer has been preselected by Labor… almost certain Liberal gain
Alessandra Soliven, they’re arguing that it’s for generational change but I have the feeling that its more for show as the buffer is too small to defend.
I’m surprised how early this was announced.
Warren Pickering the One Nation president is contesting here.
Labor loss not sure if it ONP or LIB, same with Hastings and Bass.
I think this area would be the strongest area for ONP in Melbourne given it is Very Anglo, Blue Collar, Outer Suburb, Traditionally RW voting and many are spillovers formerly living in areas that were from migrant heavy areas (meaning lots resentment towards multiculturalism) as they even set up their Victoria HQ there
Interestingly, despite Pakenham being an extremely marginal Labor seat and one of the Liberal Party’s most winnable seat, there is still no confirmed Liberal candidate for Pakenham. I guess the Liberal candidate for Pakenham could end up be Renee Heath, who currently represents the Eastern Victoria Region in the Upper House and has her office in Pakenham. Matt Green has been announced as a Liberal candidate for the Eastern Victoria Region presumably to take the place of Renee Heath for the top spot on the Coalition ticket for the Eastern Victoria Region.
Very odd that they have no candidate as it has been clear for a very long time that Emma Vulin for Labor would not be recontesting. This would seem to one of the better chances for a ON pickup – I am not convinced about Bass but Hastings would seem to be a good chance as well. If ON win here the path to an LNP majority will be very hard.
Its very poor form from the Liberals not to have preselected a candidate at this late stage in one of their most winnable seats. They’re basically clearing the way for Warren Pickering. Liberal Preselection seems to have been between Monty Sodhi and David Farrelly . There must have been some pretty significant problems with the preselection process.
Besides Pakenham the Libs also don’t seem to have a candidate in Carrum or Werribee either – both of which could be winnable at a stretch. The Liberal website may not be 100% up to date.
The Liberals definitely have a candidate in Werribee
The Libs have Reece Clark in Werribee and Jeff Shelley in Carrum
Pakenham, Point Cook, Frankston, Narre Warren North, Cranbourne, St Albans, Clarinda, Albert Park and Wendouree are all winnable (more or less) seats with no candidates. This is something the Libs need to improve on next time around
I would add Bendigo West to that list too because the MRP poll (which i have my doubts about) had the Libs winning it
I think it’s more likely ONP will pick it up than the Liberals. The ONP would throw more resources since their state president is running. Is there a possibility of an ONP vs LIB 2CP?