9:39 – With all the results for ordinary election day booths reported, I’ve put together a map showing the two-candidate-preferred results and swings by booth.
There is a clear trend – while there were substantial swings to the LNP across the electorate, they were much bigger in the Hinchinbrook Shire that makes up the middle of the electorate.
If the rest of the seat produced swings similar to those seen in the City of Townsville, KAP may have held on.
9:14 – While there are still some votes to be counted, I can’t see KAP coming back and winning this.
8:40 – The Deeragun pre-poll and a batch of postal votes have been reported, and the LNP’s primary vote swing is steady on about 10%.
8:14 – We now have eleven booths reporting preference counts, and the LNP is leading with 52.8% to 47.2% for KAP. I expect this lead to shrink. It’s not over, but the LNP remain favourites.
7:39 – And just as I wrote that, Lower Tully reported. The KAP primary is down just 2.8% there.
7:38 – Just three of the ordinary election day booths are yet to report primary votes: Cardwell, Lower Tully and Rupertswood.
7:37 – The primary votes have rushed in, with 18 booths reporting now. The LNP’s lead, but they still hold a substantial lead. The LNP is on 38.4% (+13%) while KAP is on 29.3% (-18.5%) with One Nation on 15% (+10.2%).
7:34 – And that same booth has now reported its 2CP figure, and there was a 16% swing from KAP to LNP.
7:19 – The early telephone voting booth has reported, with KAP suffering a 19.0% swing and One Nation up 14.7%.
7:18 – In other news, a referendum was held today on deamalgamating Snowy Valleys council in south-eastern NSW. At the moment, the pro-deamalgamation side is polling over 85% of the formal vote, with most vote categories reported. This looks set to be an overwhelming victory, and will likely lead to the former Tumut and Tumbarumba councils being restored.
7:15 – We’re yet to get any two-candidate-preferred figures yet. It’s worth noting that KAP outpolled the LNP by 18 points on primary votes in 2024, 46-28, and ended up winning with a 13.1% margin, which is basically a 26-point lead by the same method. So KAP did gain some ground on the LNP after preferences, but not a huge amount. They mostly won thanks to a large primary vote lead. One Nation is preferencing the LNP this time, which could help them out.
7:12 – Deeragun has reported, the largest booth so far. The swing against KAP there is just 11.2%, with One Nation up 5.5% and the LNP up 10.9%. Overall this shifts my projection on primary votes to LNP 43.6% and KAP 23.6%. Those numbers are still pretty strong for the LNP.
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%.
That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to One Nation, and 33.7% away from KAP. Good early signs for the LNP.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the by-election for the state seat of Hinchinbrook in the north of Queensland.
I will be doing a few updates through the night and may decide to do a video for Instagram and Tiktok later tonight, but I don’t expect it to be the most intense election night.
If you’re looking for something to read while you wait for results to come in, you can check out my guide.
Thuringowa is inner-city Townsville?! Didn’t get that impression when I was on my relatives’ acreage in Kelso. Willows and North Shore Marketplace are roughly equidistant from the CBD, as is Lake Ross and Black River.
Ok it’s partly inner city Townsville the seat is named after the former city of Thirongowa which is now apart of Townsville LGA
Nick Dametto was a good local Member who worked hard for his seat. That’s one of the reasons he picked up the mayoralty – it was a safe pair of hands. From his perspective he’s left the Katter family business because it was never going to be a meritocracy and now he has the opportunity to run his own show.
The fact that KAP didn’t have a Plan B if he got hit by a truck was their fault. My best guess is that the LNP will throw him enough funding for Townsville to secure his second term at the next Council election. He’s only 45 now and barring any scandals could be there for the next 25 years.
Labor are reportedly under fire for a dismal performance in the Hinchinbrook by election. This is precisely the reason Crisafuli goaded Miles to run a candidate and precisely why Labor did not want to field a candidate. Well played by Crisafulli. Not only did he win a by election in govt he made his political opponent look like a fool. Fortunately for Labor most of their Mps are relatively new. If this happened at a by election more closer to Brisbane he’d be done.
Maybe it’s time to get Shane Knuth to run for Cairns Mayor.
The contest was always kap vs lnp
In the other 3 Townsville based seats KAP wins 13%, Labor wins 29%.
Hinchinbrook, KAP wins 30%, Labor wins 8%.
Pretty obvious what has been happening.
You’re comparing apples and potatoes, Gympie
Gympie actually there are 4 others it’s because of the makeup of the seat. Expect the labor result in mundingburra to tank as well. Labor are also competing with one nation. They were voting labor because they didn’t want liberal now they have other options.
KAP have never stood in Mundingburra or Thuringowa, though they’re both only a stones throw away from KAPs best voting part of Hinchinbrook.
Fun fact: Labor held both from 2015 to 2024.
they stood in both since 2017. Mundingburra is masively under quota and will spread into burdekin possibly acroos into the LGA and across the River. Labor wil never win it now.
@john Thanks, figures from 2017 and 2020 in Thuringowa and Mundingburra still support my point, KAP 12-14%, Labor 31-38% in the latter; KAP 15-16%, Labor 32-37% in the latter.
Would make sense KAP not contesting in 2015, since that was the last Optional Preferential Election and their presence may have prevented Labor from regainintg those seats.
Which would’ve been interesting since Labor only won 44 of the 89 to LNPs 42.
@Gympie Katters wasnt that big back then and wsa fousing on the far north qld seats. Katter will only start growing Mundingburra will move further into the rural parts of townsville and possibly into burdekin on ly increasing their vore. labor will be lucky to make 3rd place.
If the lnp can replicate this success in 2028. They could easily win labors remaining regional holdings bundaberg which should probably flip under redistribution and cairns on a low margin of 2.5%. the lnp could possibly put labor to task in Gladstone. If katter switches to federal politics should bob retire Treagar may also be in play.