9:39 – With all the results for ordinary election day booths reported, I’ve put together a map showing the two-candidate-preferred results and swings by booth.
There is a clear trend – while there were substantial swings to the LNP across the electorate, they were much bigger in the Hinchinbrook Shire that makes up the middle of the electorate.
If the rest of the seat produced swings similar to those seen in the City of Townsville, KAP may have held on.
9:14 – While there are still some votes to be counted, I can’t see KAP coming back and winning this.
8:40 – The Deeragun pre-poll and a batch of postal votes have been reported, and the LNP’s primary vote swing is steady on about 10%.
8:14 – We now have eleven booths reporting preference counts, and the LNP is leading with 52.8% to 47.2% for KAP. I expect this lead to shrink. It’s not over, but the LNP remain favourites.
7:39 – And just as I wrote that, Lower Tully reported. The KAP primary is down just 2.8% there.
7:38 – Just three of the ordinary election day booths are yet to report primary votes: Cardwell, Lower Tully and Rupertswood.
7:37 – The primary votes have rushed in, with 18 booths reporting now. The LNP’s lead, but they still hold a substantial lead. The LNP is on 38.4% (+13%) while KAP is on 29.3% (-18.5%) with One Nation on 15% (+10.2%).
7:34 – And that same booth has now reported its 2CP figure, and there was a 16% swing from KAP to LNP.
7:19 – The early telephone voting booth has reported, with KAP suffering a 19.0% swing and One Nation up 14.7%.
7:18 – In other news, a referendum was held today on deamalgamating Snowy Valleys council in south-eastern NSW. At the moment, the pro-deamalgamation side is polling over 85% of the formal vote, with most vote categories reported. This looks set to be an overwhelming victory, and will likely lead to the former Tumut and Tumbarumba councils being restored.
7:15 – We’re yet to get any two-candidate-preferred figures yet. It’s worth noting that KAP outpolled the LNP by 18 points on primary votes in 2024, 46-28, and ended up winning with a 13.1% margin, which is basically a 26-point lead by the same method. So KAP did gain some ground on the LNP after preferences, but not a huge amount. They mostly won thanks to a large primary vote lead. One Nation is preferencing the LNP this time, which could help them out.
7:12 – Deeragun has reported, the largest booth so far. The swing against KAP there is just 11.2%, with One Nation up 5.5% and the LNP up 10.9%. Overall this shifts my projection on primary votes to LNP 43.6% and KAP 23.6%. Those numbers are still pretty strong for the LNP.
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%.
That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to One Nation, and 33.7% away from KAP. Good early signs for the LNP.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the by-election for the state seat of Hinchinbrook in the north of Queensland.
I will be doing a few updates through the night and may decide to do a video for Instagram and Tiktok later tonight, but I don’t expect it to be the most intense election night.
If you’re looking for something to read while you wait for results to come in, you can check out my guide.
@Redistributed – ON could certainly try to pull Robbie in, but I can also see the Nats trying to do the same. If Joyce flips to ON, Baby Doc could fill his old role in the Nats. I don’t know if Robbie plays well with others, whereas Papa Doc needed to go his own way, which is why the KAP. Katter only plays in NQLD, while ON plays all over. I think there is a bit of nuance that is missed – Littleproud gave an interview on Insiders recently where he advocated for skills-based immigration, including ag visas. At the same time, it seems like ON wants to limit immigration straight up. I can’t imagine KAP surviving without a Katter at the helm.
The lnp may have issues holding this though. At a general election they have 93 seats to contest whereas Katter can dump a whole lot of resources here. Though the redistribution may focus this seat more on Townsville where their vote is weakest but get propped up by the stronger labor vote.
I’m fully aware that voters decide their preferences. I was pointing out that ONP preferences were ill-disciplined as usual, and expecting ONP voters to faithfully follow HTV cards is like expecting a flock of ibises to form an orderly queue. Possible in theory, dangerous in practice, and everyone makes their own chaotic decisions anyway.
I would wager that 1/93 of LNP resources in 2028 would outstrip 1/5 of KAP resources (presuming they run hard in Cook and Mulgrave again).
The labor vote in cook is still quite substantial and I wouldn’t rule them out there. Medium term it can be a good thing as that’s a seat they won’t be able to hold indefinitely
Still they only hold on a 3.8% margin with all the factors i mentioned. Low labor vote questionable candidate and onp referencing the lnp (though this didnt help much). If these reversed KAP shouldn’t have too much trouble recovering the seat. Though i doubt it would be in the area of Dametto.
Chiesa will be the 3rd Rugby League caller representing NP in the Qld Parliament, following Mick Veivers and Kev Lingard.
Was it the RL connecxtion that got Chiesa over the line?
Jason Costigan represented Whitsunday for the LNP
If we want to talk about Rugby League connections, may I bring up Tim Mander, current LNP MP for Everton, and former NRL Referee?
@John the LNP will have a way easier campaign here in a general election – KAP won’t have the incumbency which made this by election a 2-horse race and their vote may well splinter further, with ON and Labor likely to run more substantial statewide campaigns as well. Clearly their candidate and Crisafulli himself were a hit
KAP won from 3rd in 2017.
KAP now a spent force.
I’d expect if the party still exists in ’28, it will be flat out breaking 15%.
ON did well considering it’s original candidate bailed at the last minute.
Labor has a choice next time, does it tactically vote ON to deny LNP the seat, or does it run on it’s merits?
LNP won’t hold all it’s bush seats, i’d say Cook, Barron River, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Mackay, Rockhampton and Keppel are goners, that’s their majority, then they’re no chance of holding on to Capalaba.
Labor will be finishing 4th again. Shit they’ll be lucky to finish even that. If lgc and the greens combine they could slip to 5th. What a sad day that would be
Gympie try some reality for a change, Crisafulli and the LNP might not be running quite so hot in the SE but you’re kidding yourself if you think after last night that they are on the nose in the north
I’m still waiting for them to find the missing 10,000 votes for labor
Labor are never winning this seat. The lasttime they won the alkaline wasn’t even invented.
Nobody was credibly suggesting they’d win, or even be competitive.
@Gympie Keppel, Mackay, Mundingburra are all held on double digit or high single digit margins, and I expect that the redistribution might shore up the LNP in those seats.
Townsville proper is more likely to flip back to red.
The LNP are likely to lose some of their Brisbane based seats, however. Can’t really see how they hold onto Pumicestone, Capalaba, or Caloundra.
Maryborough might be in play, it’s been a swingy seat over the last 15 years.
The only seats I’m willing to concede to labor is Rockhampton. The redistribution should favour labor and labor will undoubtedly get some sort of swing and win it back.
I think the lnp will pick up Gaven, Bundaberg and possibly Ipswich West.
In regards to losing a regional seat they can offset that by shuffling their mps.
For example if Mirani is abolished. The Mirani mp can run in Callide which should take in parts of outer Rockhampton. Callide can run in Burnett as it takes in parts of bundaberg regional. Ad the Burnett mp can then run in Bundaberg which should be more favourable.
Labor can do something similar with the likely seat of Springfield. Jordan mp runs in springfield. Stretton can run in greenslopes and depending on if he retires or not the tohey mp can run in sunnybank. @ cj the redistribution will probably help them somewhat in those 3 seats.
Greenbank*
Keppel is probably gonna be so conservative that it ends up being lnp v onp
@ cj that booth in brikdale should help field retain
The Callide MP is from Brigalow, which is in the western downs and nowhere near the seat of Burnett.
I suppose it hardly matters when the premier is an Ingham boy who sat on Townsville council, represented Mundingburra and now represents Broadwater from his Bulimba residence.
LNP only hold 4 Brisbane seats, Clayfield, Moggill, Chatsworth and Everton.
Doubtful they can improve on that, they hold no Federal seats in Brisbane since May.
“Keppel is probably gonna be so conservative that it ends up being lnp v onp”
Keppel includes Nerimbera, Parkhurst and North Rockhampton, very solid Labor areas. Yeppoon is a Labor town too.
With a new candidate they’re a certainty.
This is true. But that says more about the federal liberal party who are inept and incompetent. But Llyton and Aspley are probable targets. Aspely was held by a mere 31 votes. And that’s opposed to Labor who hold only 3 seats outside southern east Queensland. Being Gladstone Bundaberg and Cairns.
Gympie I’d wager it loses parts of rockhampton. Also labor got smashed in Yeppoon and lost Rockhampton. Not very strong eh? Labor will be lucky to make 2cp in the new redistributed seat. Especially if it expands north into the remainder of Livingstone
Real talk Brigalow could end up in Warrego…
Depends on what happens to Somerset. If it gets moved out of nanango bryson Head could run there?
@Gympie It’s actually 9 (Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Everton, Clayfield, Moggill, Chatsworth, Capalaba, Oodgeroo and Redlands)
At the federal level, Bowman is without question a Brisbane seat, and for some reason Fadden is counted as a metropolitan seat as well.
@John I struggle to see how a redistribution would make Rockhampton more left-leaning, given that every seat surrounding it is considerably more conservative than itself.
Scart parts of rockhampton are in keppel. Normally these boothsfavour labor.
@Gympie, @CJ et al.
Predicting seats based on their current boundaries is a bit pointless considering the draft redistribution hasn’t even been released.
Here’s some obvious notes based on the submissions so far:-
1. Redlands will pick up Mount Cotton from Springwood, adding an extra couple of percent to the LNP margin.
2. Capalaba will pick up Sheldon from Springwood, adding an extra couple of percent to the LNP margin.
3. Toohey will be abolished, distributing Macgregor, Robertson and parts of Eight Mile Plains to Mansfield.
4. Mount Ommaney will pick up Sherwood, Chelmer and probably all of Graceville from Miller, making it a very marginal ALP seat.
5. Pumicestone will lose areas on the Western side of the Bruce Highway, mostly from the Caboolture area.
6. Calliope will end up in Gladstone.
Anything else is subject to the crushing force of uncertainty.
I can agree to all but no2.
Here’s a few other things.
1. Caloundra also loses everything west of the bruce highway.
2. Either Burdekin or Mirani is abolished, creating a seat near Caboolture.
3. A new seat is created in the greenbank/flagstone area.
4. Noosa expands to the main road.
Ultimately both parties are losing a safe seat and gaining a marginal one.
@Mark Yore Sure, my point is LNP are at a highwater mark outside the southeast, any redistribution will be swings and roundabouts and all the seats I predicted being likely to fall have been mostly safe ALP at least from 1989 to 2024.
On Brisbane, the only agreed definition is the LGA area of about 1,000 sq. kms. I make the number of seats there as 22, 17 Labor;4 LNP;1 Green.
That’s pro rata for a 93 seat Parliament, 1.36m. out of 5.7m. in 2024.
@John: Mirani is very marginal for the LNP, LNPs only good area in Toohey is Tarragindi, McGregor and Robertson are heavily Chinese Australian.
Mirani is marginal for the LNP against a 2-term incumbent minor party MP – not against Labor or likely whoever they face in 2028 (assuming for the moment the redistribution wouldn’t affect Mirani but I doubt that’s true).
To assume that the LNP was at a high water mark in the regions in 2024 is folly, look what just happened! Don’t forget the federal swings against the national environment in Herbert, Flynn, Dawson etc, the Labor brand is really struggling here and we’ve yet to really see the beginnings of a recovery outside of specific cases such as Bundy and Cairns. If there was a swing away from the LNP at the next state election I’d expect it to be much more concentrated in Brisbane unless there are specific events between now and then that hurt the regions, a leadership change for Labor is probably needed too.
Yea I’m talking left v right
“To assume that the LNP was at a high water mark in the regions in 2024 is folly, look what just happened! ”
What happened was LNP picked the right candidate and KAP are on the way out.
Labor preferences only breaking 60/40 KAP are an indication, Labor voters are usually more disciplined.
As far as specific events affecting the regions, that’s almost certain, neither party are interested in spending outside the Southeast where an astonishing 75% of the voters live.
Makes a mockery of Qld being the most decentralised State.
In other words, in lieu of a result that confirmed your original hypothesis you’ve simply deferred the timeline to a future election in order to save face.
I agree that this was perceived as a two-horse race and the LNP appear to have a better candidate and leant on the personal connection of Crisafulli. However there’s caveats here, KAP’s vote may have collapsed from 2024 but its well up from the 20% level that Dametto first won the seat on. Likewise despite the perception of a 2-horse race (which you could argue drew from Labor’s already small supply) ON gained quite a bit from their paltry 2024 total.
How much of KAPs vote was Labor tactical voting?
There’s not much difference between Cairns and Hinchinbrook, yet Labor only poll 8% there? Labor originally not wanting to stand a candidate belled the cat for many KAP voters in my opimion, how else do you lose 35% of your voters in a year.
On the seats mentioned, Liberals haven’t held onto Rockhampton since 1966, reason was even with a coalition governent in Brisbane, the Member couldn’t get any spending for Rocky out of them.
Vince Lester was the only NP member that did any good in Keppel [aka Rockhampton North] since the 1940s, the Liberals have never held Mackay before and they’ve only held Cook briefly, twice in a hundred years.
@Maxim I would say more concentrated around the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. There was a recent Redbridge poll which showed Labor getting a small swing in their favour across the south-east but actually showed a small swing to the LNP within Brisbane itself (enough to win Aspley and Pine Rivers and put Labor on notice in Macalister, Springwood and Lytton). They were getting good swings on the Coasts, but the only truly winnable seats for Labor there are Nicklin and Caloundra.
@Gympie As someone from this region, there is a VERY big difference between inner-city Cairns and the Hinchinbrook/Cassowary Coast regions.
@SCart Yes I should have said the SE not just Brisbane proper
@Gympie the massive point you’re missing is that voters here had the chance to punish the LNP if they felt the government wasn’t delivering, instead they gave it a pretty impressive endorsement whilst Labor got totally left in the dust, absolutely irrelevant out here. How that translates to swings to them in 2028 just because they used to hold certain regional seats is laughable logic.
Gympie south east and Brisbane are 2 totally different things. Most state the majority of the population live in the capital city. In this case Brisbane. You’ve probably got 2/9 of the population living there represented by the 21 quotas you can make with the population there. The rest are spread out about 1/8 on the gc. 1/7 across Logan redlands and Ipswich. (3 seats in redlands 6 in Logan 4 in Ipswich) Toowoomba has 3 and bit. Townsville about the same although that’s getting close to 4. Just under 3 in cairns. 2 in Mackay plus all the regional and rural areas. 2 on the Fraser coast 2 in bundaberg. 8 includone the sunshine coast and noosa.between 7-8 in moretone bay. No other state has such spread out populations and concentrated population centres outside the capital.
Also hinchinbrook is probly 3/4 outer Townsville. Cassoway coast probably makes up 8-10% max of the seat. And yes there is a major difference ones central cairns and this is outer suburbs townsville.
If the labor voters were tactically voting for KAP what were the KAP voters doing?
In rockhampton I don’t think lnp can hold it especially after redistribution. But the following redistribution should push it back.
In regards to cook KAP have been slowly creeping up the 3cp it won’t be long before they make the 2cp against either libs or lab and when that happens they are both just gonna keep it off thw other by giving it to KAP. They are probly gonna keep Labor out of Mulgrave too. Just like they swiped mt isa. Now treagar. But yes KAP has helped deflate the labor vote in some of the regions where the only choice til recently was lib or lab. KAP gives people a 3rd option. They have been voting lib or lab because they would rather be dead then vote for the other party but now there’s someone else to vote for.
Even Perth has about 75% of people living in the metropolitan area that would be considered greater Perth.
@Maxim Thuringowa borders Hinchinbrook, a year ago Labor got 29.3%; KAP 14.1%; LNP won with 41.81%.
On saturday, next door, Labor got 8.3%;KAP got 30.1%; LNP won with 41.4%. Labor sh9ould’ve got ore than 14.1%, at a byelection in a battlers seat, unless there was a lot of tactical voting to keep the LNP out.
This from ABC:
“He also used to be a member of the Labor Party — something the LNP relentlessly highlighted in its bid to wrest the seat off the KAP.
In the last sitting week of parliament, ministers referred to Mr Molachino as “Labor’s Katter candidate”.”
ABC also described the contest as “bitterly fought”
So, the issue was the KAP candidate and who he really represented and voters bought the LNP line.
Ah yes it was the voters who were wrong, pardon me
Gympie thirongowa is basically inner city Townsville hinchinbrook is outer suburbs townsville. Even if labor voters were tactically voting Kap that just means more Kap voters were voting liberal. This should have been an easy win for Kap given they aren’t a governing party and the lnp were supposedly headed for a term govt. But the lnp has obviously swayed voters that they are doing a good job and deserve their vote. If a govt is winning a by election in a seat it doesn’t currently control they are doing something right. Labors vote has crashed because labor voters are deserting labor in the regions. They are now have more choices then just labor and liberal they can vote onp or Kap. If tactical voting was a thing how did the greens increase their vote. If this was a lab v lib seat the libs probably just got a 10% swing and probly win this seat 72-28.
Mundingburra expanding into rural and outskirts of Townsville is similarly gonna put more grass onto the lnp margin and hold it for them. If it goes even further up to or across the Burdekin river they might as well write it off.