8:14 – We now have eleven booths reporting preference counts, and the LNP is leading with 52.8% to 47.2% for KAP. I expect this lead to shrink. It’s not over, but the LNP remain favourites.
7:39 – And just as I wrote that, Lower Tully reported. The KAP primary is down just 2.8% there.
7:38 – Just three of the ordinary election day booths are yet to report primary votes: Cardwell, Lower Tully and Rupertswood.
7:37 – The primary votes have rushed in, with 18 booths reporting now. The LNP’s lead, but they still hold a substantial lead. The LNP is on 38.4% (+13%) while KAP is on 29.3% (-18.5%) with One Nation on 15% (+10.2%).
7:34 – And that same booth has now reported its 2CP figure, and there was a 16% swing from KAP to LNP.
7:19 – The early telephone voting booth has reported, with KAP suffering a 19.0% swing and One Nation up 14.7%.
7:18 – In other news, a referendum was held today on deamalgamating Snowy Valleys council in south-eastern NSW. At the moment, the pro-deamalgamation side is polling over 85% of the formal vote, with most vote categories reported. This looks set to be an overwhelming victory, and will likely lead to the former Tumut and Tumbarumba councils being restored.
7:15 – We’re yet to get any two-candidate-preferred figures yet. It’s worth noting that KAP outpolled the LNP by 18 points on primary votes in 2024, 46-28, and ended up winning with a 13.1% margin, which is basically a 26-point lead by the same method. So KAP did gain some ground on the LNP after preferences, but not a huge amount. They mostly won thanks to a large primary vote lead. One Nation is preferencing the LNP this time, which could help them out.
7:12 – Deeragun has reported, the largest booth so far. The swing against KAP there is just 11.2%, with One Nation up 5.5% and the LNP up 10.9%. Overall this shifts my projection on primary votes to LNP 43.6% and KAP 23.6%. Those numbers are still pretty strong for the LNP.
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%.
That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to One Nation, and 33.7% away from KAP. Good early signs for the LNP.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the by-election for the state seat of Hinchinbrook in the north of Queensland.
I will be doing a few updates through the night and may decide to do a video for Instagram and Tiktok later tonight, but I don’t expect it to be the most intense election night.
If you’re looking for something to read while you wait for results to come in, you can check out my guide.
Burdekin has just reported preferences 657-503 to the lnp
Burdell
Cj I’ve also added in Winton and damnatjira from maranoa
That’s 56.60-43.40 a 15.4% swing
Murray upper 124-110 to kap 53-47 a 22.4% swing
Lnp have won Cardwell long pocket deeragun forest Beach and lucinda
8:20pm
No new primary votes counted since 7:50pm.
Unofficial 2CP count
LNP – 52.33
KAP – 47.67
Votes Counted – 6631 / 10487
If Labor finish under 10%, what are the odds Miles gets rolled?
Probly remote this is a seat labor were never gonna win and had to be forced to run candidate in.
“If Labor finish under 10%, what are the odds Miles gets rolled?”
@SCart
Not on a seat like Hinchinbrook. Labor weren’t even going to stand a candidate because some saw it a waste of resources. The KAP candidate is former Labor member. There would be some strategic voting going on from Labor voters.
But even so, failing to even crack double digits in any seat is insane for a major party in even the worst of seats for them.
Especially given that Labor’s primary is still only around 12% at most in in Townsville’s north-west. As someone from the Townsville electorate (a seat Labor likely needs to win back), it’s not all that demographically different from the Northern Beaches.
“Forced” lol
Having KAP sneak home might be a blessing for the lnp. I’d imagine next time around they would find a much better candidate
I’m “forced” to log off for now in the same sense that Crisafulli “forced” Miles to run a candidate. Family calls. Congratulations to the LNP, and the premier, whose investment in this seat looks seat to reap the ultimate reward. When I log back on I expect a 10000 word thesis by those who know on the topic of the LNP’s path to winning 85 seats at the next election, and why a terrible result in a seat not won since the Soviets were yeeting dogs into space for fun spells disaster for Labor.
Unsurprisingly, the swings are at their highest around DC and Wayde Chiesa’s mutual hometown of Ingham.
ABC has this as “LNP Likely”, at the moment.
Still waiting on the two largest booths to come in. Pre poll and returning officer.
@real talk il get chat gpt to whip something up