7:19 – The early telephone voting booth has reported, with KAP suffering a 19.0% swing and One Nation up 14.7%.
7:18 – In other news, a referendum was held today on deamalgamating Snowy Valleys council in south-eastern NSW. At the moment, the pro-deamalgamation side is polling over 85% of the formal vote, with most vote categories reported. This looks set to be an overwhelming victory, and will likely lead to the former Tumut and Tumbarumba councils being restored.
7:15 – We’re yet to get any two-candidate-preferred figures yet. It’s worth noting that KAP outpolled the LNP by 18 points on primary votes in 2024, 46-28, and ended up winning with a 13.1% margin, which is basically a 26-point lead by the same method. So KAP did gain some ground on the LNP after preferences, but not a huge amount. They mostly won thanks to a large primary vote lead. One Nation is preferencing the LNP this time, which could help them out.
7:12 – Deeragun has reported, the largest booth so far. The swing against KAP there is just 11.2%, with One Nation up 5.5% and the LNP up 10.9%. Overall this shifts my projection on primary votes to LNP 43.6% and KAP 23.6%. Those numbers are still pretty strong for the LNP.
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%.
That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to One Nation, and 33.7% away from KAP. Good early signs for the LNP.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the by-election for the state seat of Hinchinbrook in the north of Queensland.
I will be doing a few updates through the night and may decide to do a video for Instagram and Tiktok later tonight, but I don’t expect it to be the most intense election night.
If you’re looking for something to read while you wait for results to come in, you can check out my guide.
The premier appears to have spent a lot of personal and political capital in trying to win this seat, and for good reason: having Hinchinbrook in the LNP column would provide a seven seat buffer from minority government in 2028, pending the redistribution of course.
Crisafulli chose a mate for the candidate, leant heavily on his background in the Ingham area, even involved his parents in the campaign, and has spent more time in this electorate than any other in the time since Troy Thompson’s resignation as Townsville mayor started the chain of events leading to this by-election. Senior members of his government, including treasurer David Janetzki (whose electorate is just a short 1425km drive from Ingham) have been handing out how to vote cards today. I dont think they invest so heavily if they don’t think they can win.
Given the personal and political capital invested, anything less than a win would be a negative for the premier and the government.
For the KAP, it will be interesting to see how they go. Dametto’s personal vote will be a factor, but it wasn’t a factor in 2017 when he came from third place to claim victory. The KAP are yet to lose a seat that they won at an election – I’m not counting Mirani 2024 in that as the KAP candidate was initially elected for ONP.
Early results favouring the lnp but expect it to tighten once some of the higher voting brothers come in
I’d have expected the smaller booths to be stronger to KAP tbh, this looks like the makings of a blow out
Eight booths in, all rather small.
LNP – 43.79%
KAP – 25.67%
ONP – 19.28%
Where’s that Labor win coming from @gympie?
Ouch! On the very limited numbers so far, ONP are cutting into the KAP vote and the ALP are not doing well.
Given that half the votes were cast in pre-poll voting, it’s going to be interesting to see if there’s a split between early and polling day behaviour.
Do we know which booths?
@john Forrest Beach, Halifax, Kennedy, Long Pocket, Lucinda, Macknade, Murray Upper, Toobanna
Yes. Forrest Beach, Halifax, Kennedy. Long Pocket, Lucinda, Package, Murray Upper, Toobanna. Altogether, around 4% of the number of votes cast in 2024.
FYI – If you look at the ECQ website you can see for yourself.
Deeragun has gone 38-34 to the LNP over KAP.
The 2024 result was 28-45.
That’s bad news for KAP those booths were all won last time. The real battle is in Townsville which has about 3/4 of the voters.
Looks like 1 person either left or didnt vote in Deeragun.
Whatever the outcome is tonight, it will probably be a demonstration of three things:
1) Nick Dametto himself had a huge personal vote in Hinchinbrook and without him running (or his prototype), the vote sprays all over the place to the LNP and One Nation.
2) It’s probably NOT a good idea (actually scratch the probably, definitely) to run as a KAP candidate when you’ve already been an ALP member in the past and it’s on the public record.
3) When Katter goes in Kennedy it’s by no means guarantee someone from the KAP will succeed him and the seat will likely revert back to LNP by default.
7:20pm
LNP – 39.96
KAP – 29.10
ONP -16.41
ALP – 7.58
GRN – 4.19
FF – 1.69
IND – 1.07
Votes Counted – 2811
Tommo if Robbie runs hed probably win. It im sure bob would be out there helping him. Crisafulli looks to have pulled a good campaign even if he loses. He basically dared Labor into running and their vote has tanked.
First booth (telephone votes) has reported 2CP and the Liberals have won it by 4% off a primary vote lead of only 5%