9:39 – With all the results for ordinary election day booths reported, I’ve put together a map showing the two-candidate-preferred results and swings by booth.
There is a clear trend – while there were substantial swings to the LNP across the electorate, they were much bigger in the Hinchinbrook Shire that makes up the middle of the electorate.
If the rest of the seat produced swings similar to those seen in the City of Townsville, KAP may have held on.
9:14 – While there are still some votes to be counted, I can’t see KAP coming back and winning this.
8:40 – The Deeragun pre-poll and a batch of postal votes have been reported, and the LNP’s primary vote swing is steady on about 10%.
8:14 – We now have eleven booths reporting preference counts, and the LNP is leading with 52.8% to 47.2% for KAP. I expect this lead to shrink. It’s not over, but the LNP remain favourites.
7:39 – And just as I wrote that, Lower Tully reported. The KAP primary is down just 2.8% there.
7:38 – Just three of the ordinary election day booths are yet to report primary votes: Cardwell, Lower Tully and Rupertswood.
7:37 – The primary votes have rushed in, with 18 booths reporting now. The LNP’s lead, but they still hold a substantial lead. The LNP is on 38.4% (+13%) while KAP is on 29.3% (-18.5%) with One Nation on 15% (+10.2%).
7:34 – And that same booth has now reported its 2CP figure, and there was a 16% swing from KAP to LNP.
7:19 – The early telephone voting booth has reported, with KAP suffering a 19.0% swing and One Nation up 14.7%.
7:18 – In other news, a referendum was held today on deamalgamating Snowy Valleys council in south-eastern NSW. At the moment, the pro-deamalgamation side is polling over 85% of the formal vote, with most vote categories reported. This looks set to be an overwhelming victory, and will likely lead to the former Tumut and Tumbarumba councils being restored.
7:15 – We’re yet to get any two-candidate-preferred figures yet. It’s worth noting that KAP outpolled the LNP by 18 points on primary votes in 2024, 46-28, and ended up winning with a 13.1% margin, which is basically a 26-point lead by the same method. So KAP did gain some ground on the LNP after preferences, but not a huge amount. They mostly won thanks to a large primary vote lead. One Nation is preferencing the LNP this time, which could help them out.
7:12 – Deeragun has reported, the largest booth so far. The swing against KAP there is just 11.2%, with One Nation up 5.5% and the LNP up 10.9%. Overall this shifts my projection on primary votes to LNP 43.6% and KAP 23.6%. Those numbers are still pretty strong for the LNP.
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%.
That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to One Nation, and 33.7% away from KAP. Good early signs for the LNP.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the by-election for the state seat of Hinchinbrook in the north of Queensland.
I will be doing a few updates through the night and may decide to do a video for Instagram and Tiktok later tonight, but I don’t expect it to be the most intense election night.
If you’re looking for something to read while you wait for results to come in, you can check out my guide.
The premier appears to have spent a lot of personal and political capital in trying to win this seat, and for good reason: having Hinchinbrook in the LNP column would provide a seven seat buffer from minority government in 2028, pending the redistribution of course.
Crisafulli chose a mate for the candidate, leant heavily on his background in the Ingham area, even involved his parents in the campaign, and has spent more time in this electorate than any other in the time since Troy Thompson’s resignation as Townsville mayor started the chain of events leading to this by-election. Senior members of his government, including treasurer David Janetzki (whose electorate is just a short 1425km drive from Ingham) have been handing out how to vote cards today. I dont think they invest so heavily if they don’t think they can win.
Given the personal and political capital invested, anything less than a win would be a negative for the premier and the government.
For the KAP, it will be interesting to see how they go. Dametto’s personal vote will be a factor, but it wasn’t a factor in 2017 when he came from third place to claim victory. The KAP are yet to lose a seat that they won at an election – I’m not counting Mirani 2024 in that as the KAP candidate was initially elected for ONP.
Early results favouring the lnp but expect it to tighten once some of the higher voting brothers come in
I’d have expected the smaller booths to be stronger to KAP tbh, this looks like the makings of a blow out
Eight booths in, all rather small.
LNP – 43.79%
KAP – 25.67%
ONP – 19.28%
Where’s that Labor win coming from @gympie?
Ouch! On the very limited numbers so far, ONP are cutting into the KAP vote and the ALP are not doing well.
Given that half the votes were cast in pre-poll voting, it’s going to be interesting to see if there’s a split between early and polling day behaviour.
Do we know which booths?
@john Forrest Beach, Halifax, Kennedy, Long Pocket, Lucinda, Macknade, Murray Upper, Toobanna
Yes. Forrest Beach, Halifax, Kennedy. Long Pocket, Lucinda, Package, Murray Upper, Toobanna. Altogether, around 4% of the number of votes cast in 2024.
FYI – If you look at the ECQ website you can see for yourself.
Deeragun has gone 38-34 to the LNP over KAP.
The 2024 result was 28-45.
That’s bad news for KAP those booths were all won last time. The real battle is in Townsville which has about 3/4 of the voters.
Looks like 1 person either left or didnt vote in Deeragun.
Whatever the outcome is tonight, it will probably be a demonstration of three things:
1) Nick Dametto himself had a huge personal vote in Hinchinbrook and without him running (or his prototype), the vote sprays all over the place to the LNP and One Nation.
2) It’s probably NOT a good idea (actually scratch the probably, definitely) to run as a KAP candidate when you’ve already been an ALP member in the past and it’s on the public record.
3) When Katter goes in Kennedy it’s by no means guarantee someone from the KAP will succeed him and the seat will likely revert back to LNP by default.
7:20pm
LNP – 39.96
KAP – 29.10
ONP -16.41
ALP – 7.58
GRN – 4.19
FF – 1.69
IND – 1.07
Votes Counted – 2811
Tommo if Robbie runs hed probably win. It im sure bob would be out there helping him. Crisafulli looks to have pulled a good campaign even if he loses. He basically dared Labor into running and their vote has tanked.
First booth (telephone votes) has reported 2CP and the Liberals have won it by 4% off a primary vote lead of only 5%
LNP I should say
Blue water seems to holding for Katter and only a small swing for the LNP. If the LNP win this it will be because of ONP preference decision.
Labor generally contest every by-election. They contested Callide in 2023, hardly Labor territory. The last time I think they didn’t run in an by-election was in Toowoomba South in 2016, to tactically help an independent over the line.
Saying Crisafulli dared Labor to run in this election is akin to saying I dared a car to move when the light turned green.
They are having a dreadful night tonight, that much is true.
A few more booths are reporting and the result has tightened,
Labor weren’t initially going to but Crisafulli effectively called them Chicken.
They didnt contest the cook by election
Nor basically any of the NSW state ones
The numbers so far out of Trebonne, Ingham, Macknade and Halifax booths are good examples of why personal votes are important.
Cook hasn’t had a by-election since before 1912, if ever.
If you’re referring to the federal district, we call that clutching at straws.
Also north west central in wa
I’m just about to call it for the LNP. If they can’t recover before preferences the increased one nation vote is probably gonna get them over the line.
I was clearly referring to Queensland state Labor. It’s hilarious that you’re holding the Queensland Labor Party accountable for the decisions made in WA, NSW and at the federal level. Alas.
Miles could be pressured to resign after this result. Depends on what ALP insiders read this result as. Overall seems to be a good result for LNP which I expected would happen.
@Real Talk he’s talking about NSW.
Given the early results, I think the result is great news for the LNP. Even if they don’t win this, they’ve slashed a 13% margin on a Crossbench seat.
Real talk it has been a disaster for KAP and Labor whose vote has tanked despite being in opposition clearly they still have issues in regional Queensland.
Corgi I’d say the result can be attributed to one nation referencing the lnp of katter
@Tommo9 “3) When Katter goes in Kennedy it’s by no means guarantee someone from the KAP will succeed him and the seat will likely revert back to LNP by default.”
Kennedy is going to be a difficult seat to forecast because the redistribution next year could potentially rewrite it. And it’s not even the numbers for Kennedy – it’s the deficiency in the surrounding seats that create problems.
In 2024, One Nation preferences in Hinchinbrook went 60% to KAP, 28% to LNP and 12% to ALP.
Kennedy should undergo any major change any effected areas are gonna be minimal
Even if KAP can hold here the lnp have done an amazing job and can count this as a win.
@John The ALP were already starting on a very low base in Hinchinbrook from 2024 (14%), and practically nobody (except for one lonely pundit on the Tally Room who appears to have lost their password tonight) expected them to do any better tonight. The LNP have thrown the Crisafulli family kitchen sink at Hinchinbrook tonight and anything less than success will be a poor result.
I think there is also the fact that the LNP managed to use Molachino’s supposed links to Labor against him which has to the look of it turned quite a few KAP voters off the party.
It will be interesting to see how the result would have been different had onp not switched sides
KAP would likely be leading
Only the early voting centre in deeragun, mobile polling and the returning officer left to report
7:50pm
LNP – 38.02
KAP – 29.97
ONP – 15.60
ALP – 8.24
GRN – 4.60
FF – 2.39
IND – 1.19
Votes Counted – 10486
The extremely small sample size of the unofficial indicative count indicates that the ONP vote is slightly favouring the LNP. I’d like to see more of a trend here before painting Hinchinbrook blue.
If Molachina somehow can sneak home i can’t see him winning in 2028. People usually use a by election to pass judgement on the government. But they are currently in front. Not only winning a b election but against a minor party.
The other factor aiding the lnp here is the donkey vote. Having pole position on the ballot probly helps too.
There has been a big adjustment in the indicative 2PP count, with KAP ahead 51.54 to 48.46.
I’ll have to check which booths are included.
Absolute failure for Labor couldn’t even make the 3CP. Rupertswood and Northern Beaches are reporting preference coun slightly favouring Katter
@John low turnout will help them too
Okay, that only includes:
* Rupertswood – KAP 53.54 (56.54 in 2024)
* Northern Beaches – KAP 50.94 (62.02 in 2024)
Plus the telephone early voting.
@Mark Yore the only way Kennedy really needs to change is through the Cairns and Townsville suburbs.