Gippsland East – Victoria 2026

NAT 24.6%

Incumbent MP
Tim Bull, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Gippsland East covers East Gippsland Shire and northern parts of Wellington Shire, covering the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield.

History
Gippsland East has existed as a single-member district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly continuously since 1889. In over 130 years, the seat has only been held by seven members.

The seat was first held by unaligned MP Henry Foster from 1889 to 1902. He served as Mining Minister from 1894 to 1899.

Foster died in 1902, and the by-election was won by James Cameron. He eventually joined the Liberal Party and then the Nationalist Party, and served as a minister from 1909 to 1913.

Cameron was defeated in 1920 by Farmers Union candidate Albert Lind. Lind eventually became a member of the Country Party, and served as a minister in a number of state governments from 1935 to 1952. He served as Deputy Premier from 1937 to 1943.

Lind retired in 1961, and was succeeded by the Country Party’s Bruce Evans. He served as Country Party deputy leader from 1964 to 1970, and retired from Parliament at the 1992 election.

David Treasure of the Nationals won Gippsland East in 1992. He was re-elected in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999 he was defeated by abalone diver Craig Ingram, who was an independent candidate. Ingram came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on One Nation preferences, and then won the seat on Labor preferences.

Ingram joined with two other independents in supporting a minority Labor government, sharing this balance of power from 1999 to 2002. Ingram’s primary vote increased from 24% to 41% in 2002, and he won comfortably with an 11.7% margin after preferences. He was re-elected in 2006 with a slightly reduced margin.

In 2010, Ingram lost to Nationals candidate Tim Bull with a swing of 20.5%. Bull has been re-elected three times.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Tim Bull is not running for re-election.

Assessment
One Nation will be hoping to win this seat.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Bull Nationals 26,737 63.3 +6.6
Stephen Richardson Labor 7,191 17.0 -4.7
Nissa Ling Greens 2,691 6.4 +0.2
Ricky Muir Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 2,460 5.8 +5.8
Ed Barnes Freedom Party 1,340 3.2 +3.2
Carl John Fechner Family First 1,068 2.5 +2.5
Sally Court Animal Justice 725 1.7 +1.7
Informal 1,992 4.5

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Bull Nationals 31,475 74.6 +7.0
Stephen Richardson Labor 10,734 25.4 -7.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas: the Lakes area, the east, and west.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 71.6% in the east to 77.1% in the west.

Voter group NAT 2PP Total votes % of votes
Lakes 74.0 9,006 21.3
West 77.1 4,727 11.2
East 71.6 3,660 8.7
Pre-poll 74.3 20,739 49.0
Other votes 70.2 4,171 9.9

Election results in Gippsland East at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals and Labor.

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10 COMMENTS

  1. It was announced this morning that sitting Nationals MP Tim Bull is not running again. One Nation seem to be strong in Gippsland and not having a sitting MP may make this seat a more attractive target. At the federal election, the ON vote was lower in this area than places further west that are in Morwell.

  2. The Nationals should still retain though. The Nationals vote need to drop below 30% for them to lose.

  3. If the Liberals do not contest, the Nationals may lose if their primary vote drops below 30% and One Nation polls above 40%, but I don’t see that happening. I don’t think the Liberals will bother to contest Nationals heartland seats like this one in light of the ONP threat.

  4. The Coalition would do well to really limit or even eliminate instances of vote splitting between their tickets in light of the ONP threat – even in seats currently Labor held such as Ripon and Bass

    Bull’s retirement definitely puts this seat on the map and gives ONP a target, similar to Murray Plains. I wouldn’t rule out ONP polling at or near 40% which would likely push the Nats into the low 30s, but even from that position they are a good chance of catching up – noting that Liberals in Mackillop and Narrungga nearly got caught ONP candidates from 22-37 type primaries

  5. The Labor and Greens combined vote will be likely lower than the National or One Nation Vote. Unless the National vote totally collapses and there is no indication that it will then even if ON lead, the Nats would get home on Labor and Green preferences. For ON to be in with a chance they would need a primary vote of 40% plus. Does anybody know if Ricky Muir could turn up as a ON candidate?

  6. Maxim
    That would be the sensible approach – Nats only in Bendigo East, Gippsland East, Murray Plains. Libs only in Bass and Benambra. Both however would seem to have a reasonable claim in Ripon.

  7. One Nation would be competitive but I doubt they would win that easily like at the Farrer by-election or in SA. For ON to win, there has to be a huge crash in the Nationals primary vote and ON coming first in primaries. It is hard to see it happening. The reason why it happened in Farrer and SA is because the Liberal and Nationals brands were damaged and were seen as uncompetitive. The Vic Coalition at least appears more competitive.

  8. Local mum, teacher and farmer Gemma Rendall has been announced this week as the Nationals candidate for Gippsland East. Looks like a well-credentialed woman. Seems to be pretty young as well (she calls herself “a young mum”). She will be the first woman to represent Gippsland East if elected, and I think that she will be elected. The Victorian Nationals seem to be pretty good at preselecting high-quality female candidates.

  10. Moreover, campaigning with local federal Nationals MP Darren Chester, who has a massive personal vote, will also give Rendell’s campaign an advantage.