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It was announced this morning that sitting Nationals MP Tim Bull is not running again. One Nation seem to be strong in Gippsland and not having a sitting MP may make this seat a more attractive target. At the federal election, the ON vote was lower in this area than places further west that are in Morwell.
The Nationals should still retain though. The Nationals vote need to drop below 30% for them to lose.
If the Liberals do not contest, the Nationals may lose if their primary vote drops below 30% and One Nation polls above 40%, but I don’t see that happening. I don’t think the Liberals will bother to contest Nationals heartland seats like this one in light of the ONP threat.
The Coalition would do well to really limit or even eliminate instances of vote splitting between their tickets in light of the ONP threat – even in seats currently Labor held such as Ripon and Bass
Bull’s retirement definitely puts this seat on the map and gives ONP a target, similar to Murray Plains. I wouldn’t rule out ONP polling at or near 40% which would likely push the Nats into the low 30s, but even from that position they are a good chance of catching up – noting that Liberals in Mackillop and Narrungga nearly got caught ONP candidates from 22-37 type primaries
The Labor and Greens combined vote will be likely lower than the National or One Nation Vote. Unless the National vote totally collapses and there is no indication that it will then even if ON lead, the Nats would get home on Labor and Green preferences. For ON to be in with a chance they would need a primary vote of 40% plus. Does anybody know if Ricky Muir could turn up as a ON candidate?
Maxim
That would be the sensible approach – Nats only in Bendigo East, Gippsland East, Murray Plains. Libs only in Bass and Benambra. Both however would seem to have a reasonable claim in Ripon.
One Nation would be competitive but I doubt they would win that easily like at the Farrer by-election or in SA. For ON to win, there has to be a huge crash in the Nationals primary vote and ON coming first in primaries. It is hard to see it happening. The reason why it happened in Farrer and SA is because the Liberal and Nationals brands were damaged and were seen as uncompetitive. The Vic Coalition at least appears more competitive.