LIB 6.4%
Incumbent MP
Anthony Marsh, since 2026.
Geography
Mornington Peninsula. Nepean covers the southernmost part of Mornington Peninsula, including Point Nepean.
History
Nepean was created in 2002, replacing the abolished seat of Dromana, which had been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election since its creation in 1967.
Dromana was won in 1996 by Martin Dixon. He was re-elected in 1999. In 2002 he ran for Nepean, and held the seat until his retirement in 2018.
Labor candidate Chris Brayne won Nepean in 2018 after a large 8.5% swing.
Brayne lost in 2022 to Liberal candidate Sam Groth, who gained a 7.1% swing after preferences.
Groth ended up rising to the rank of deputy leader in his only term in parliament. He was elected to the deputy leadership in December 2024. He announced his impending retirement from parliament in January 2026, and was replaced as deputy leader soon after. In February 2026, Groth resigned from parliament, and the subsequent by-election was won by Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh.
- Sianan Healy (Greens)
- Darren Hercus (One Nation)
- Anthony Marsh (Liberal)
Assessment
The Liberal Party are favourites to retain this seat at the November general election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Groth | Liberal | 19,614 | 48.1 | +4.0 |
| Chris Brayne | Labor | 13,308 | 32.6 | -5.3 |
| Esther Gleixner | Greens | 3,576 | 8.8 | -2.2 |
| Hank Leine | Freedom Party | 980 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Pamela Engelander | Animal Justice | 720 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Janny Dijkman | Family First | 638 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Jay Miller | Companions and Pets | 526 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Elizabeth Woolcock | Independent | 495 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Charelle Ainslie | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Cynthia Skruzny | Democratic Labour | 369 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Steve Anger | Independent | 91 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 2,753 | 6.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Groth | Liberal | 22,986 | 56.4 | +7.1 |
| Chris Brayne | Labor | 17,780 | 43.6 | -7.1 |
2026 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Marsh | Liberal | 15,682 | 38.7 | -9.4 |
| Darren Hercus | One Nation | 9,941 | 24.5 | +24.5 |
| Tracee Hutchison | Independent | 8,533 | 21.0 | +21.0 |
| Sianan Healy | Greens | 3,805 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| Renee Thompson | Legalise Cannabis | 1,192 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Reade Smith | Sustainable Australia | 721 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Peter Angelico | Libertarian | 505 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Milton Wilde | Reform | 166 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
| Informal | 2,041 | 4.8 |
2026 by-election two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Marsh | Liberal | 25,642 | 63.2 | |
| Tracee Hutchison | Independent | 14,903 | 36.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, south and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas at the 2022 general election, with 51.4% in the east and 57.2% in the west. Labor won 51.1% in the south. The Liberal Party also won large majorities on the special votes.
At the 2026 by-election, the Liberal Party topped the primary vote in the south and west, while One Nation narrowly outpolled the Liberals in the east. The independent vote was highest in the south.
2022 booth breakdown
| Voter group | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 51.4 | 4,737 | 11.6 |
| West | 57.2 | 3,247 | 7.9 |
| South | 48.9 | 1,990 | 4.9 |
| Pre-poll | 56.8 | 24,056 | 58.8 |
| Other votes | 61.8 | 6,902 | 16.9 |
2026 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | IND prim | ON prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 20.1 | 29.0 | 28.6 | 5,533 | 13.6 |
| West | 22.2 | 20.9 | 37.2 | 3,133 | 7.7 |
| South | 32.8 | 12.1 | 35.9 | 2,010 | 5.0 |
| Pre-poll | 22.1 | 25.5 | 38.4 | 22,391 | 55.2 |
| Other votes | 15.0 | 22.9 | 48.4 | 7,478 | 18.4 |
Election results in Nepean at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Election results at the 2026 Nepean by-election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent) and primary votes for the Liberal Party, One Nation, independent candidate Tracee Hutchison and the Greens.
Anthony Marsh is a good fit for this area, Liberal hold with margin basically the same given it’s likely the Liberal infighting will flair up again and hurt them in the November 2026 election.
I think Labor when ever they win their next ever 2002/2018 style landslide would probably not prefer to win this rather a seat like Croydon, Polworth or even Rowville subject to boundaries with the exception of a few tree/sea changer areas like Red Hill and Shoreham i feel this area will trend right especially areas between Blairgowrie and Portsea as Clifton Mansions will be sort after and there is limited supply of such high end housing as well as around Flinders/Merricks etc. As more retirees rely on Occupational Superaunation rather than Aged pension i expect wealth inequality will rise and as such this electorate will drift further right than the state as a whole. I feel Flinders (Federal electorate) is a right trending seat for this reason as well. I think Hastings is a better seat than Nepean for Labor as it more working families.