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Anthony Marsh is a good fit for this area, Liberal hold with margin basically the same given it’s likely the Liberal infighting will flair up again and hurt them in the November 2026 election.
I think Labor when ever they win their next ever 2002/2018 style landslide would probably not prefer to win this rather a seat like Croydon, Polworth or even Rowville subject to boundaries with the exception of a few tree/sea changer areas like Red Hill and Shoreham i feel this area will trend right especially areas between Blairgowrie and Portsea as Clifton Mansions will be sort after and there is limited supply of such high end housing as well as around Flinders/Merricks etc. As more retirees rely on Occupational Superaunation rather than Aged pension i expect wealth inequality will rise and as such this electorate will drift further right than the state as a whole. I feel Flinders (Federal electorate) is a right trending seat for this reason as well. I think Hastings is a better seat than Nepean for Labor as it more working families.