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With leader ship rumours I think it will be Sam Groth replacing Brad Battin as leader.
I’ve also read about the leadership rumblings. I think Sam Groth or Jess Wilson or both will put their hats in the ring if the role is open. Since they are first-termers, they might struggle to win trust within the party and the electorate more broadly.
Would this be a teal seat based on federal election numbers from Flinders?
I doubt a Sam growth jess Wilson combo will eventuate being first termers they won’t have the numbers. But I think hpjes Wilson could possibly get the deputy role.
@Votante – I’ll do a map and try to get a calculation of the booths from Flinders, but my current observation is that Flinders would be a marginal teal seat.
The numbers I got for Polling Day + Rosebud PPVC
15329 LIB (48.5%)
16227 IND (51.5%)
Adding in a calculated amount of postals which split 61-39 to the Liberals in Flinders altogether, and then calculating an average amount of postals that would projected to have been cast in the electorate:
20664 LIB (51.3%)
19637 IND (48.7%)
Liberals would likely win this seat.
James – that’s interesting to see. At first glance, I thought that the independent would’ve won on Nepean’s boundaries. My guess is that there were more postal voters in Portsea and Sorrento due to the population of retirees and the distance away from the PPVC.
Sam Groth seems to be a little bit accident prone with spending tax payers money being misused, in most circumstances this would cost an mp their job but given the Liberal parties other issues it seems to have gone unnoticed. If Sam Groth I would be careful as the margin here is rubbery and this seat can swing.
@ SpaceFish
I still dont think this is a seat Labor will target. It has a very High median age and wealthy not Labor’s typical demographic. In Hindsight Labor probably wished it won Croydon in 2018 than Nepean.