Ben was joined by George Hasanakos from pollster DemosAU to discuss the surge in support for One Nation, which has pushed them ahead of the combined Liberal-National vote in a number of polls, as well as the split in the Liberal-National coalition. They discuss how these two trends impact on how polls are conducted.
This podcast was recorded before the publication of polls by YouGov and Essential that continued the continuing trend.
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Interesting podcast. Antony Green mentioned that a 20% One Nation primary vote nationally would mean up to 40% in some QLD Nationals-held seats. Seats along coastal QLD (e.g. Flynn, Capricornia) and in outer-metropolitan or peri-urban SE QLD (e.g. Wright, Blair) are ones to watch.
The Greens (and other parties’) preference flows in a Labor/ONP 2CP contest is an unknown. The AEC’s calculation for 2025 in Hunter (where there was an ALP vs ONP result) is too small of a sample size.
In 2025, there was talk that a fear of Peter Dutton winning made people switch away from the Greens and vote tactically for Labor. Adam Bandt’s concession speech in 2025 mentioned that as well after losing Melbourne. A possibility is that could again play out in 2028 if One Nation is seen as a strong contender nationwide i.e. Greens and other left-wing voters vote tactically.
You would expect the Greens to Labor preferences in a ALP/ONP to be even stronger than a traditional ALP/L/NP contest but as George said in the podcast, some Greens voters (and One Nation) are just anti major party and will put both major parties last.
I suspect that as the Greens have grown in prominence that those type of voters will have seen the Greens as one of the ‘major parties’ or ‘establishment’ so those who remain in the Greens voter base would be more likely to preference Labor.
I think March for Australia manage to consolidate much of Australia’s Right to oppose multiculturalism (through converting many who were the one that used to be neutral or soft support for multiculturalism prior the march) which might explain the increase of One Nation vote. Afterall now many (if not most) Christian Right, Right-Libertarians etc have became anti-multicultural and I think multiculturalism has became the new main culture war gossip for Australia (probably since the culture wars about Welcome to Country have failed)
@ Marh
I actually responnded to you on the Hasluck threat about the future of multiculturalism see link below. The most recent March for Australia was more Anti-Multicultural than the previous two with many signs accusing Labor of importing terrorism, hatred and one person even accused Albanese of changing the demographics of Australia to help Labor win. I know think this has meant that any Moderate Liberal who stands up to Islamphobia/defends Multi-culturalism will be eaten alive on Sky After Dark
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2028/hasluck2028
The rise of One Nation could make the (now former) Coalition parties redirect resources away from the larger cities and sandbag their own seats in rural, provincial and outer-suburban electorates. This would be at the expense of defending their metropolitan seats.
I don’t think the rise of One Nation would threaten sitting independents or quasi-independents (should they choose to rerun) in the rural electorates of Indi, Mayo, Calare and Kennedy. One Nation runs on an anti-major party platform and attracts disaffected or protest voters. The sitting MPs are already the main non-major party option.