Monbulk – Victoria 2026

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9 COMMENTS

  1. This seat is the only Eastern Suburbs seat that Labor won in 2010 and 2014. As there are fewer Eastern Suburbs seats today than 2010 Libs need this one. This seat has more Liberal friendly boundaries than during the Bracks years but Labor has a better margin today than they did in 2006. This area is socially progressive, irreligious and is probably the safest seat in terms of crime rates.

  3. @ SpaceFish, The Greens come second in many of the Dandenong booths but they dont do well in Suburban areas (Knox council), Strong Liberal areas (Seville, Silvan and Narre Warren East). Also even if there is a 6% swing from ALP to LIB which is better than 2010 it will not put Greens in second place or knock Labor out of the 2CP. It is unlikely that Centrist voters who are unhappy about debt etc will swing to Greens.

  4. Clare Fitzmaurice is the Liberal candidate for Monbulk, she is a staffer for Anne Webster which interesting as she is a member of Liberal Party but works for National Party I’m not entirely sure if she’s a local but it shows you how desperate the Liberals are to get a candidate.

  5. I wonder if the Libs were hurt here last time by having a candidate – Gareth Ward – with the same name as the former NSW MP who has now been jailed for sex offences. People may have googled him and the wrong person came up but they didnt read further. I can see both Greens and ON doing well here. It could get messy.

  6. @ Reidstributed. Last time therre were actually swings against Labor in the booths that were already in Monbulk in 2018 due to loss of James Merlino personal vote. However, what helped Labor is that Labor got swings TO them in the booths which are in Knox council that were moved into the electorate from Bayswater and the abolished Ferntree Gully. This is due to change in effort level as you have often correcly pointed out. While Greens and ONP will do well here they will do well in different areas. I dont think there are Red One Nation/White Working class voters here this is more like the Federal seat of Macquarie the higher the elevation and the more Forested it it is the Progressive vote increases as you go to lower altituide agricultural areas it becomes more Conservative so in a seat like this i think the ONP will come from Libs and very little from Labor.

  7. If Wilson is indeed appealing well to the more higher income professional class then that could have some implications along the Tecoma-Belgrave corridor in particular, Labor don’t benefit from any pockets of diversity in this seat, but there is most definitely a more progressive tilt to the area being a tourism/alternative lifestyle area with environmental sensitivities. With proper campaign effort the Liberals are potentially a shot here but depends how well the sitting MP has worked the little towns/villages here

  8. @ Maxim
    I agree Wilson will appeal more to Tealish higher income Professional class which is why i agree with you to watch out for Eltham. I also agree that Monbulk, Eltham, Macedon and Bellarine 4 seats that Libs missed out in 2010 have virtually no ethnic diversity which Labor can rely on like Narre Warrens and Cranbourne.
    Regarding the Belgrave-Upwey rail corridor i agree there can be a swing but even in 2010 under Ted Ballieu Labor won those booths comfortably eventhough you can correctly say on current boundaries Libs actually won Monbulk in 2010.

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2010/monb2010