ALP 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Paul Mercurio, since 2022.
Geography
South-eastern fringe of Melbourne, including the western shore of Western Port. The seat covers Hastings, Somerville, Langwarrin and French Island, in the City of Frankston, and Mornington Peninsula Shire.
History
The electoral district of Hastings was created in 2002. At the time it was considered to have a notional Liberal margin of 7.3%, but was won in 2002 by the ALP candidate, Rosy Buchanan, who won the seat with 50.85% of the vote.
In 2006, a small swing to the Liberal Party saw Buchanan defeated by Neale Burgess. Burgess was re-elected three times, barely holding on in 2018.
Burgess retired in 2022, and Labor candidate Paul Mercurio won the seat.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Briony Hutton | Liberal | 16,415 | 39.8 | -5.0 |
| Paul Mercurio | Labor | 15,361 | 37.3 | -1.4 |
| Paul Saunders | Greens | 4,118 | 10.0 | -0.2 |
| Tyson Jack | Animal Justice | 1,736 | 4.2 | -1.9 |
| Janet Felicity Benson | Freedom Party | 1,235 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Tom Sabo | Family First | 1,001 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Camille De Wit | Democratic Labour | 833 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Robert Whitehill | Independent | 533 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 2,369 | 5.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Mercurio | Labor | 21,174 | 51.4 | +1.3 |
| Briony Hutton | Liberal | 20,058 | 48.6 | -1.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south.
Labor won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.3% in the centre to 54.3% in the south. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.5% in the centre to 16.1% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 9.5 | 51.3 | 4,864 | 11.7 |
| North | 9.7 | 53.8 | 4,834 | 11.6 |
| South | 16.1 | 54.3 | 3,580 | 8.6 |
| Pre-poll | 8.8 | 49.8 | 22,729 | 54.7 |
| Other votes | 10.9 | 52.5 | 5,543 | 13.3 |
Election results in Hastings at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Hastings was a surprise gain in 2022. Paul Mercurio as a high-profile candidate really helped Labor.
The Liberals narrowly lost not just in Hastings but also in Bass and Pakenham. Their campaign in outer SE Melbourne was flawed except in Nepean. The Liberal 2PP in Hastings went down by 9% from 2014 to 2022.
Votatne libs should regain Hastings in 2026. its future however will be determined by the redistribution. if it goes furher into frankston Labor should win it. if it goes into Casey then the libs should.
@ Votante
I do agree Hastings was a surprise gain in 2022 i did not have it on my bingo card. Whilst Hastings and Nepean are both based on the Penisula they have different demographics. Nepean has many super rich retirees who may have once lived in the Teal seats so it is quite affluent. Hastings on the other hand is more blue collar (not poor), Langwarrin is a middle class tradie suburb like much of the Shire, Hastings (township) is an industrial peri-urban town while the semi-rural parts of this seat are Liberal. I do agree with John that this should be a LIB pick up.
i was marking this as a close one given the candidate had some sort of profile for Labor.
The near misses and narrow Labor gains of 2022 will be most at-risk in 2026. I’m not sure how big Paul Mercurio’s local support as a politician is nowadays. In 2022, people knew him for his career in entertainment.
Nepean flipping Liberal in 2022 was no surprise. Sam Groth was a high profile Liberal candidate and a very low Labor margin.
i think the Libs can bank at least 11 seats. but i cant see them getting the 17 needed at this stage
It depends on few factors firstly, if Labor continues to lead in the polls and doesn’t trip up then they could hold here. Secondly, if the Liberal civil war continues then this will help Labor chances of retaining this seat. Thirdly, if the Liberal actually pull it together or the publics opinion sours on Labor then the Liberals will certainly pick this up. Finally, depends on the candidate they pick plus the local and state campaign the Liberals run. This seat is still in play for both parties.
This labor’s one of most marginal seat vs libs. If they aren’t winnings this they have probably gone backwards again.
Yeah i agree with Darth Vader if Libs are not winning Hastings they will probably go backwards again and may loose Croydon. On balance i stil think Libs will pick up at least 11 seats like John said one of which is Hastings
That effectively pushes Labor into minority government unless they can pickup 2 seats elsewhere. This is why it is in the Libs interests to preference the greens. Because that way it diverts Labor resources to seats like Richmond which Labor would be hoping to win, and defending seats like Pascoe Vale, Northcote, Preston and Footscray. Which means less resources to defend seats the libs are hoping to win. Labor may also face challenges in seats like Werribee, Point Cook and if Ian Cook runs again Mulgrave as well from Independents.
The nats best chances of a pickup will be Ripon and Bendigo East if Lathlean chooses to contest. They would be able to dump resources there as unless they face any serious ind challenges again they don’t really have any seats to defend so when you don’t need to defend any seats you go looking for new voters. Hastings or whatever it might be called will probably be more favourable to Labor in 2030 after the redistribution as it will likely move further in to frankston as it will be needing about 10% new voters once nepean and mornington are fixed.
I think a minority government for Labor in Victoria is less risky than at a Federal level or any state or territory (apart from ACT) due to the fact that there is no resouces industry in Victoria and some issues such as Republic/Foreign Policy are not relevant at a state level. Victorian Labor is already more progessive on climate and indigenous matters than Federal Labor.
Imagine a scenario where Allen and Carroll lose their seats but Labor retains govt. Who seizes power?
I think Colin Brooks is the next most Senior MP in the lower house and has a seat that is unlosable.
I wouldn’t be underestimate Labor’s campaign strategy or the potential for the Liberal campaign to fall apart. As I mentioned before, Hastings, Bass and Pakenham were surprise retains or wins for Labor in 2022. The Liberals narrowly retained Mornington against a teal.
Mornington Peninsula will be a battleground region. A large chunk of it is traditional Liberal heartland and so in theory, the Libs would need Hastings in their path to government. There are also teal-ish areas like Somers and Balnarring.
Isnt is Lily D’Ambrosio?
i thought it was Colin Brooks but Mill Park is an winnable seat for Coalition so i guess he could be premier in such as case.
Doubtful. They’ve never come close. It’s margin is similar to Bundoora. Oddly enough Bundoora is the place i want to live. They named a street after me.
Sorry John I meant to say Mill Park is not winnable seat. I agree Bundoora is a nice middle class part of Melbourne.
Factional warfare also would come into play. lily is of the dominant left faction while Brooks is on the right. Then it comes down to who has leadership ambitions not just who’s been around the longest. Then you’ve got union support that determines votes.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2026/bundoora2026
Isn’t that strange, they named a street in Bundoora after Darth Vader too.
@John: “Who seizes power?”: Most likely Gabrielle Williams (Dandenong). Dandenong is Labor’s second-safest seat at the moment, after Laverton.
Real talk there are heaps of streets with last names in this area it’s not surprising I know about 3 people who could do that
I think St Albans will be in top 5 safest seats post election for Labor on TPP basis
Without divulging my real name I know a Ross Court, Karrin Close and Teresa Street
I think safest seats post election. Would be Dandenong. Laverton Thomastown st Albans and Broadmeadows
I expect Korororit to have a further swing to Libs I think Labor will do better in Pakenham than Hastings