NAT 4.4%
Incumbent MP
Martin Cameron, since 2022.
Geography
Latrobe Valley. Morwell covers most of the City of Latrobe, specifically the towns of Morwell, Moe and Traralgon. Morwell electoral district also covers the towns of Boolarra, Churchill, Newborough, Tyers and Yallourn North.
History
Morwell has existed as an electoral district since 1955. It was first held by the Liberal Party until 1970, and by the Labor Party from 1970 until the 2006 election, when it was won by the Nationals.
Morwell was first won in 1955 by Liberal candidate Jim Balfour. He became a cabinet minister in 1964, and in 1967 moved to the new seat of Narracan. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a cabinet minister until 1977.
Balfour was succeeded in Morwell by fellow Liberal Archie Tanner. A former amateur boxing champion, Tanner held the seat for one term, losing Morwell in 1970 to the 27-year-old Derek Amos of the ALP.
Amos held the seat until his resignation in 1981, when he was succeeded at a by-election by the 31-year-old Valerie Callister, also of the ALP.
Callister retired in 1988, and was succeeded by Keith Hamilton, who served as Minister for Agriculture and Minister for Aboriginal Affairs.
Hamilton retired at the 2002 election, and was succeeded by Brendan Jenkins. He held the seat with a 4.9% margin. In 2002, the Liberal Party polled 19% of the primary vote, with the Nationals polling 12%. The Nationals had been the primary opposition to the ALP in Morwell as recently as 1996, but in 1999 the Liberals had become the main opposition, with the Nationals not contesting the seat.
In 2006, the Nationals polled almost 28% of the primary vote, with the Liberals on 14%. After preferences, the Nationals’ Russell Northe won the seat with a 2.2% margin. Northe was re-elected much more comfortably in 2010, with no Liberal opponent. He narrowly won a third term in 2014.
Northe resigned from the Nationals in 2017 to sit as an independent, and narrowly retained his seat as an independent in 2018.
Northe retired in 2022, and Nationals candidate Martin Cameron won the seat of Morwell.
- Natalie Acreman (Victorian Socialists)
- Martin Cameron (Nationals)
- Brendan Clarke (Family First)
- Rochelle Hine (Greens)
- Tracie Lund (Labor)
- Casey Murphy (One Nation)
Assessment
One Nation will be hoping to take some Nationals territory here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kate Maxfield | Labor | 13,601 | 31.4 | -6.8 |
| Martin Cameron | Nationals | 9,902 | 22.9 | +14.1 |
| Dale Harriman | Liberal | 6,710 | 15.5 | +0.3 |
| Allan Hicken | One Nation | 2,648 | 6.1 | +6.1 |
| Sharon Gibson | Independent | 2,515 | 5.8 | +5.8 |
| David Snelling | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 2,044 | 4.7 | -1.1 |
| Rochelle Hine | Greens | 1,830 | 4.2 | +0.5 |
| Tracie Lund | Independent | 1,206 | 2.8 | +1.0 |
| Alex Maidana | Freedom Party | 900 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Brendan Clarke | Family First | 749 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Jessica McAuliffe | Animal Justice | 687 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Lisa Proctor | Independent | 469 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 3,526 | 7.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Martin Cameron | Nationals | 23,541 | 54.4 | +8.4 |
| Kate Maxfield | Labor | 19,720 | 45.6 | -8.4 |
Booths have been divided into five areas: Moe, Traralgon, Morwell and the rural remainder split into north and south.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of five areas, ranging from 56.7% in the south to 59.2% in the north. Labor won 51.1% in Morwell and 53% in Moe.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in Morwell to 14.4% in Traralgon.
| Voter group | LIB prim | NAT 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Traralgon | 14.4 | 57.3 | 4,864 | 11.2 |
| Moe | 13.4 | 47.0 | 4,806 | 11.0 |
| Morwell | 12.3 | 48.9 | 2,223 | 5.1 |
| South | 13.6 | 56.7 | 1,705 | 3.9 |
| North | 13.6 | 59.2 | 1,252 | 2.9 |
| Pre-poll | 16.3 | 56.3 | 24,866 | 57.1 |
| Other votes | 18.3 | 51.4 | 3,845 | 8.8 |
Election results in Morwell at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Liberal Party.
It is a good thing for the Nats that their MP has had 4 years to consolidate. However they sre not of the woods and ON could be really competitive. One to watch.
Labor primary is going to be trash here. NAT vs ON with Labor preferences to get the Nats over the line.
Recent polling has One Nation getting a primary vote of 39% I would say if that’s accurate then the Nationals don’t have much of chance of holding here.
@SpaceFish, agree giving this is Coal Country. With the current environment, the Nationals would have to be full on climate denial and fully support the coal industry to stop the bleed to go to One Nation.
@Spacefish: The 39% result from the poll you referenced wasn’t the One Nation primary vote for Morwell. Rather it was the One Nation primary vote across four seats (Bass, Hastings, Pakenham and Morwell). The poll only polled an average of 71 voters per seat and was an SMS poll, which tends to attract respondents motivated to respond to polls in order to influence polling results, so the sample was hardly representative. SMS polls massively overestimated the One Nation vote in the 2026 SA state election. Therefore we shouldn’t be drawing conclusions for individual seats from this poll. https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10371-victorian-state-voting-intention-eastern-victoria-seats-october-2026
Based on the average of available polling, politicks.io has made a primary vote projection for Morwell of ON 38.3%, NAT 34.0%, ALP 14.2%, GRN 5.0%, Minor right 4.1%, other minor 2.6%. The model got a 2CP of NAT 50.1% vs ON 49.9%. I got a 2CP of NAT 50.23% vs ON 49.77%, assuming ALP and GRN preferences flow 70% to NAT. The NAT 2CP could be higher if the preference flows from ALP and GRN to NAT are stronger (in fact there were slightly stronger ALP and GRN to LIB over ON preference flows in the 2026 SA election), which could well be the case considering the Nationals have an incumbent MP recontesting.
In the 2026 SA state election, the Liberals got over 2/3 of preferences from excluded candidates in 3 of the 4 LIB vs ON contests. If the Nationals could get 2/3 of preferences from excluded candidates, the Nationals will hold if both One Nation and the Nationals poll between 30% and 40% in Morwell, which currently polling suggests will likely be the case. politicks.io’s statewide Coalition primary vote forecast is 30.9%. The combined Coalition vote in Morwell in 2022 was 38.4%, higher than the statewide average of 34.5%. Considering the Nationals have an incumbent MP recontesting Morwell, I think the Nationals primary vote in Morwell in 2026 will still be higher than Coalition’s statewide average, or at least on par with the statewide average. This suggests that the Nationals primary vote will probably be in the low 30s in Morwell.
Can One Nation poll close to or higher than 40% in Morwell? It could, however my analysis shows Morwell should better be considered as a toss-up between the Nationals and One Nation rather than a likely One Nation gain.
I would not be surprised to see quite a big jump in the Greens vote here. Their candidate Rochelle Hine ran in Gippsland in 2025. The Greens vote was well into the teens at many booths aroubd the Valley. Something to watch for.
@ Joseph
Like i said to you on the Hastings thread just because the Coalition vote was higher in a particular seat in 2022 than the statewide result does not mean it will be the case this time IMHO. The reason is the right wing vote is more fragmented this time than it has ever been at Victorian state election. In 2022 ONP only ran in 5 lower house seats and there was little coverage. Based on Federal results Morwell had the highest result for ONP see link below.
There are cases where many Labor won seats have a lower statewide vote than average such as Richmond (federally). Melbourne Ports and Griffith. This is because the left vote (Greens/Labor) is more fragmented than say in Cranbourne.
This time around seats like Ivanhoe, Albert Park, Eltham, Bentleigh and Mordiallic may have a higher Coalition primay vote than the statewide average as the right wing vote will not be as fragmented and ONP will underperform the statewide vote in those seats. The Right wing is a traditional coalition of farmers, small business, professionals and religious conservatives. Some parts of that Coalition are moving to ONP and some are cetainly not. There are fewer professionals in Morwell than the rest of the state. Remember Ivanhoe, Albert Park, Eltham, Bentleigh and Mordiallic have a high concentration of professionals and are typically Whiter than average you also dont have many Red One Nation voters in those seats hence even if Coalition dont win any of those seats the their statewide primary vote could very well be higher there
https://antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-mapping-one-nations-2025-federal-result/
It’s trickier to predict/forecast when the Coalition vote was split between a NAT and LIB as well – not all Liberals would by default become NAT voters
@Nimalan we are probably likely to see more Big L Liberals in the metro seats to move to ONP more on ideological grounds, but that could be more than offset by shifts in Labor or even GRN voters from 2022 swinging back to the Liberals.
As for Morwell, I think the Nats vote could hold up ok in Taralgan but there will be some big booths for ONP in Moe and Morwell itself along with the surrounding coal towns like Churchill and Yallourn North, a lot of that being at Labor’s expense
@ Maxim
I agree i do agree more Conservative 2022 Liberal primary voters will move to ONP but Libs can offset that with more fiscally conservative socially moderate Liberal voters as i call Tealish voters. Prahran is probably a good case where there are 2022 GRN voterns in the northern part and West of Punt Road who can move to a Jess Wilson led Liberal party they would have last voted Liberal in 2014 state or 2016 Federal election