Evelyn – Victoria 2026

Liberal hold

From what I’ve heard, Bridget Vallence is quite popular here and from what I’ve seen does have a decent social media presence. I see her in no trouble whatsoever, especially considering the fact that the federal seat of Casey (which includes all of Evelyn) swung to the Liberals in a particularly bad election for them.

@ James
This seat is a bit like parts of Hughes (Shire part) or the Hawkesbury. It is full of Anglo Tradies and small farms. This seat is trending right longer term. This is one of the few parts of Melbourne where Dutton may have had some appeal.

@Nimalan – agreed. Not sure if you have the same opinion but I have seen on social media Aaron Violi is quite popular and got a decent sophomore surge to hit the general Labor swing in Victoria.

I do think Aaron Violi is popular, young and talented. However, i think Casey is not really a seat that Labor should target these days. They last won it in 1983 before expansion of parliament along with Flinders which these days is pretty much unwinnable. La Trobe on the other hand is a seat that Labor will target longer term especially given rapid ethnic diversification and urbanisation so while La Trobe and Casey are neighbouring their trejectories are different. Aston is a better seat for Labor as it is more urbanised closer to the city and has more ethnic diversity.

This seat is very anglo and has a lot of tradies so I would be surprised if One Nation does well through here.

“I should have said this seat is predominantly anglo population”

@ Spacefish
I agree this is an area that ONP should campaign since it is Upper House Region is one that ONP needs to win a seat.

Fun Fact, Daniel Andrews will be the first ever Labor leader who won a Majority to have never won this seat at least once. The three other Labor leaders who achieved this feat John Cain Snr, John Cairn Jnr and Steve Bracks won this seat atleast once. In 2002 Labor won this seat by 0.3% despite the boundaries being more Pro Labor in 2018 and 2022 Labr was not able to win it including when it was an open seat in 2018. In 1982 Labor won Evelyn by a bigger margin than in 2002 despite a narrower statewide vote. I dont think Labor will ever win this seat again like Casey and Federal seat of Flinders i think it is now permenmently right wing. Whenever Labor gets their next 2002 and 2018 style results subject to boundaries they way win Croydon and Polworth but not this seat or Morwell. Unlike Rowville which seems to have seen Peak Liberal and now softening i think Evelyn could be considered a leadership seat for Libs as it is Teal proof as well.

This seat might be Labor/teal proofed but if this cycle were taking place at a lower point for the Coalition and higher point for Labor it wouldn’t be ONP proof, but their rise could prove to be a short-term proposition in the overall scheme of things

I grew up in the neighbouring seat of Monbulk so know this seat reasonably well. To me, Mooroolbark, Montrose, Chirnside Park, Lilydale all feel pretty demographically similar to Croydon/Kilsyth/Parts of Mooroolbark which make up the seat of Croydon.

The only reason I can think of for them diverging politically is slightly increased density in Croydon, but that area is no Box Hill, Glen Waverley, Ringwood level of densification. Seville, Wandin and Coldstream also differentiate this seat and are very right wing now. Perhaps those areas have moved further right over time.

I can see One Nation doing well here.

@Adam, I feel Lilydale is kind of different as it acts more like a Large Regional Town that is close knitted yet a hub for the Yarra Ranges. Whereas, Mooroolbark feels more like a Melbourne Suburb especially areas near the train station and activity centre as it is more diverse including a sizable Burmese Community.

@ Maxim
Great point i forgot this seat is certainly not ONP proof and if Labor was in a better cycle this could be an ONP V ALP seat and winnable for ONP even if it not winnable for ALP or Teals. The only seats which i think are Labor proof, ONP proof and Teal proof are Bulleen and Warrandyte. All the rural Liberal seats such as Narracan or Benembra are not ONP proof.
@ Marh/Adam
I think Marh is correct that Lilydale is a bit different and does feel like Regional servicetown while places like Croydon, Kilsyth are clearly more outer suburban. Adam is correct the semi-rural areas especially Gruyere and Coldstream are rock solid Liberal areas more so than the affluent parts of Croydon such as Croydon Hills and Croydon North. I feel Croydon hit peak Liberal and is now softening at is just more suburban so has more centrist voters and a little bit more ethnic diversity. I think Croydon can be won in a future landslide provided it does not take in Warranwood or the Manningham Green Wedge and stays purely urban. The old Kilsyth which Labor won in 2002 did not go North of the Maroondah Highway so had more Pro-Labor boundaries. In 2018 Croydon also took parts of Ringwood North which made it harder to win despite a Labor landslide.

Bridget Vallence seems quite popular local member which could help her hold. Something I’ve noticed around the electorate is some of her signs don’t really show the Liberal Party on it and the colour is a lot lighter.

I could this being prime ON territory except that there is a well established Liberal incumbent and Labor are on the down rather than the up (as in SA). There seems to be a big evangelical christian presence in this part of the world so ON might tune into that.

@ Redistributed
I agree ONP would normally be strong here but Labor is down. However, i dont think this is a religious area about 50% of the people have no religion much higher than state and national average. There is virtually no Religious minorities here so those with a religion will be some form of Christian. I think the this area is quite nationalist and Anglo tradies which is why ONP will appeal here and this area if moving further away from Labor. I would Knox and Casey councils are where the Evangelical Christian prescence are but in the Casey Council that is balanced out by having an above % of people of minority religions.

@Redistributed,
Nimalan is correct on Knox and Casey councils are where the Evangelical Christian presence, I believe the most religious seat is Rowville followed by Cranbourne. While this electorate is anglo older and tradie demographics its very established and cost of living pressures don’t seem to be impacting this electorate as much as other parts of the state. Although like what has been said above this seat would be quite nationalistic so that would definitely get some cut through.

I think this area is becoming more Right Wing as more Nationalist Voters have moved into the Casey area probably appealed by the fact it is amongst the whitest areas in Melbourne with probably at around 90% White alongside more affordable and larger homes when compared to other areas in the Eastern Suburbs.

@Spacefish
yes Rowville and Cranbourne have the most pentecostals. The two Narre Warren seats also have that demographic. If you look at election results even during the Bracks era in the Casey LGA seats you will note that FFP used to do well. The Wall for the right wing is that those cities are extremely diverse as well with other religions as well.
@ Marh
Nether Portal actually did a table see link below and this area was among the least diverse. Although i think Mornington Penisula is least diverse area in Victoria but is more Peri-Urban while this area is mostly suburban and has direct rail to Melbourne city so it would attract those who are nationalist but want to access the Melbourne Job market, hence this area is trending right. I feel it is a bit like the London Borough of Havering which Reform UK now actually manages and is the most White borough in London.
https://jumpshare.com/share/lI5Kn8WKiNcI8h1o7sK3

@Nimalan I think unlike Lilydale, even Havering has saw a massive growth of working class racial minorities moving in meaning this area has a ‘low contact intergroup threat perception’ which is from the spillover from the massive growth of racial minorities in the Barking and Dagenham area (it’s Whites British proportion dropped from 80% in 2001 to 30% in 2021) and they had high percentages voting Leave. I think closest equivalent in Melbourne would be Pakenham with its spill over being from Casey but even then the key difference is Casey/Clarinda is a massive growth area and the white population isn’t dropping there yet unlike Havering, and Barking and Dagenham area .

@ Marh
Good point Barking and Dagenham has been a dramatic drop in White British population especially as ethnic communities are displaced due to gentrification in Inner London and they are moving outwards and this is now probably showing up in Havering which is only 66% White British high for London while i think Yarra Ranges is probbaly about 85% Anglo Celtic and 95% White.
I do agree Casey council has probably seen the fastest diversification in Australia but as a growth area unlike Havering the White population is still increase in absolute numbers just much less as a %. Pakenham is also seeinng rapid diversification but it is white population is growing as well. I feel the growth areas in Outer Melbourne have diversified faster than the Middle ring Eastern suburbs the high property prices mean those areas are only accessable to wealthier immigrants. I feel the parts of Melbourne such as Inner West (Footscary, Yarraville) or Inner North (Fitzroy, Carlton North and Abbotsford) are actually more White than 20 years ago due to gentitification.

@Nimalan, interesting that Pauline Hanson made a press conference and said that Australia cannot be multicultural and said “We are a multiracial society, but we must be monocultural,”. I think what Pauline Hanson supports is something a bit like the last years of White Australia Policy and John Howard’s ‘One Australia Policy’ during his first stint as opposition where the belief is that the only non-whites they would accept be Christian, Assimilated and kept in a small number. This would probably be appealing to the Outer Suburban, Regional and Rural White Conservatives such as this seat.

@ Marh
It is actually not that different to what she said in her infamous 1996 maiden speech when she said “Abolishing the policy of multiculturalism will save billions of dollars and allow those from ethnic backgrounds to join mainstream Australia, paving the way to a strong, united country…… I must stress at this stage that I do not consider those people from ethnic backgrounds currently living in Australia anything but first-class citizens, provided of course that they give this country their full, undivided loyalty.” So her position from 1996 was the same she opposed multiculturalism but accepted people of non European backgrounds to be able to be assimilated into the majority irrespective of biological race. I think the Populist Radical Right movement across the Western world have been able to change the narrative from race and skin colour to culture/civilisation. I think for many people on the right attacking someone for the biological race is unacceptable but for criticising religious or traditional practices in seen as acceptable For example insulting a South Asian such as myself for their skin colour is a Red line while encouraging them to eat a Bunnings sausage which may conflict with religious dietary requirements or asking them to celebrate Christmas even in a secular manner is probably seen as an invitation even it is seen as deeply ignorant. Today unlike in 1996 someone like Rita Panahi who has Muslim heritage but gave up her religion would be invited to join One Nation. I think the right wing in Australia would love to see an Australian version of Ayyan hirsi Ali and i think a future Hanson will invite them to join.

@Nimalan, I think the rule within RW Nationalist is more that non-whites proportions must be kept small and the community must adhere to their ‘values’ and even then they are only treated as ‘Honorary whites’ which was actually a policy during Apartheid South Africa to treat certain ethnic groups mainly East Asians in granting certain rights and privileges enjoyed by the whites at the time. Even then many Australian Nationalist (especially Ultranationalist) still thinks they are not ‘Full-on Australian’ as evident from the recent interview from the Australian ultranationalist Sam Bamford with Joanna Howe and her Husband with Bamford and Howe’s tensely arguing what is an ‘Australian’.

@ Marh
I did see the Sam Bamford debate with Joanna Howe and her husband. I think Sam Bamford debate with Joanna Howe and her husband and i think Sam Bamford points are nonsense. He argued that people who are Anglo-Celtic, European or Indiengous are ethnically Australian. I think in a country like like Denmark you could say there are people who are ethnically Danish as Denmark is a nation state with a titular ethnicity which is not the case in Australia. According to Sam Bamford defintion someone such as a Swedish Family who migrated to Australia in their mid 30s with children would be the same ethnically as someone who lives in the Torrest Strait Islands who speaks their native language and lives a traditional way of life, while someone like Ashton Agar (who shares same ethnic background as myself) but is Default Aussie passing would be seen as less Australian than the Swedish family that just migrated and speak with thick accent. Sam Bamford said Joanna Howe children were half Indian and half Australian even if they are culturally assimilated, are Christian celebrate Christmas, eat Beef and Pork, have Anglo sounding names and end up marrying Anglos, to be that is like the One Drop rule so if someone has One Drop of Non European blood except indigenous they would be a permement minority so then you cannot actually argue for assimilation as sharing religion and cultural markers with the majority is not enough as you cannot escape having genetics from certain parts of the world. In a way he is actually saying there will be permenent hireachy based on genetics which even shared cultural traits and religion cannot overcome.