Narracan – Victoria 2026

LIB 12.9% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Wayne Farnham, since 2023.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Narracan covers the Shire of Baw Baw and north-eastern parts of the Cardinia council area. Narracan covers the towns of Warragul, Narracan, and a number of smaller rural towns between Melbourne and the Latrobe Valley.

History
Narracan was first created at the 1967 election. It has been held by the Liberal Party for most of that time, except for the period from 1999 to 2006.

Narracan was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Jim Balfour, who had previously held the seat of Morwell from 1955 to 1967. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government until 1977.

Narracan was won in 1982 by John Delzoppo of the Liberal Party. He served in a variety of Opposition frontbench positions during the 1980s, and when the Liberal Party won power in 1992, he was elected Speaker, serving in the role until his retirement in 1996.

In 1996, Narracan was won by Florian Andrighetto, also a Liberal. Andrighetto held the seat for one term, losing Narracan to the ALP’s Ian Maxfield in 1999.

Maxfield held the seat for two terms. He increased his margin to 6.8% in 2002, but a swing of over 9% in 2006 saw him lose to the Liberal Party’s Gary Blackwood. Gary Blackwood was re-elected three times, and retired in 2022.

The 2022 election for the seat of Narracan was delayed due to the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist days before the election. A supplementary election was held in early 2023, and was won by Liberal candidate Wayne Farnham.

Candidates

Assessment
One Nation would be a serious threat to the Liberal Party here.

2023 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Wayne Farnham Liberal 16,741 45.0 -10.6
Alyssa Weaver Greens 4,132 11.1 +5.1
Tony Wolfe Independent 4,110 11.0 +11.0
Sophia Camille De Wit Democratic Labour 2,641 7.1 +7.1
Leonie Blackwell Freedom Party 2,254 6.1 +6.1
Casey Murphy One Nation 2,246 6.0 +6.0
Annemarie McCabe Independent 1,437 3.9 +3.9
Michael Abelman Liberal Democrats 1,325 3.6 +3.6
Brendan Clarke Family First 1,089 2.9 +2.9
Austin Cram Animal Justice 849 2.3 +2.3
Ian Honey Independent 381 1.0 +1.0
Informal 2,619 6.6

2023 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Wayne Farnham Liberal 23,568 62.9
Tony Wolfe Independent 13,903 37.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas: Warragul, central, north and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against an independent) in all four areas, ranging from 52.9% in Warragul to 66.3% in the west.

Voter group GRN prim LIB 2PP Total votes % of votes
Central 11.7 59.8 7,288 19.6
West 11.9 66.3 2,910 7.8
Warragul 16.0 52.9 2,418 6.5
North 11.8 62.5 1,722 4.6
Pre-poll 10.6 63.0 18,360 49.3
Other votes 8.7 70.7 4,507 12.1

Election results at the 2023 Narracan supplementary election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent) and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and independent candidate Tony Wolfe.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. There was no Labor candidate here last time so I would be interested to see how well they do long the Princess Hwy booths.

  2. Labor has strength is the small township of Erica. However, this seat is unwinnable these days all of the La Trobe valley has moved out and the seat has moved West. Unlike Monash, there is coastal townships with tree changers.
    Drouin-Warragul are moe marginal. However, it is probably not worth the effort for Labor to win it. In a future election subject to boundaries Labor can target Croydon and Polwarth.However, Morwell and Narracan are two seats that Labor won in 2002 they will probably never win back.

  3. This is one to watch because of the potential One Nation surge.

    The seat used to be more Labor-friendly than the state average but has shifted conservative over many election cycles. It is now out of reach for Labor.

    I think along the Princes Highway, between Bunyip and Moe, there is a sizeable ‘red’ One Nation vote. They are historically Labor-voting and likely to work in manual labour or as tradies but will vote One Nation. These include those who voted Labor last election but can’t bring themselves to vote Liberal.

  4. @ Votante
    I disagree it is not the same seat that Bracks one twice. Each of the redistributions (2002, 2014 and 2022) improved for the Liberals as each time the seat moved West and progressively lost the La Trobe valley to the point there is none of it left. Once you get into Moe the demographics change dramstically. Drouin-Warrugul are bit more marginal as it more urbanised. On current boundaries i am not sure if the Libs would have won it even in 2002. So i dont really feel Narracan has changed except boundaries and consquenly level of effort. Morwell on the other hand is probably the one seat i can say for show has shifted right over the last 20 years. We can see overalapping Federal electorates (Monash/Gippsland) show same trend.

  5. I think the Northern Part of the Seat is an example where it is quite touristy such as Noojee did not translate to a left-wing vote but rather a Right-wing vote unlike places like Macedon and Dandenong Ranges even Halls Gap due to a strong camping and trout fishing culture.

  6. Labor will be seriously hurt here by the issue of road conditions. The Princes Freeway has had numerous issues with large potholes. The Labor vote will be likely a long way short of the 35.5% they received in 2018 – they possibly might end up in third place as I can see ON doing well here – probably not well enough to win but quite likely a vote with a 2 at the front possibly more. ON have selected Ben Lucas, a Baw Baw Shire councillor since 2020 as their candidate.