Queensland 2024

If the 7.2% swing was uniform (which it won’t be), the LNP would gain the following seats (from easiest gain to hardest gain, margin-wise): Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Redlands, Mundingburra, Aspley, Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel, Redcliffe, Cook, Mackay, Pine Rivers and Mansfield, but Labor would narrowly hold onto Gaven, the only non-LNP seat on the Gold Coast on the federal or state level, with Labor having won that seat from the LNP in 2017 and retaining it in 2020.

Believe it or not, the LNP’s first ever victory in Mackay (a seat that narrowly stuck with Labor after its landslide loss) is on the horizon, and the LNP’s first victory Rockhampton may well be possible too.

There are 18 seats in reach if the LNP gets a 7.2% swing statewide, though I predict that the swing will be larger in seats like Townsville and Mackay than it will in seats like Pine Rivers.

A 7.2% against Labor in Steven Miles’ own seat of Murrumba in northern Brisbane (in the Moreton Bay lLGA) would see his margin reduced from a safe 61.33% to a marginal 54.13% percent. If the polls get any better for the LNP then he could be in trouble, potentially being in danger of coming close to losing his own seat.

@np I reckon he might be remeber he’s been caught living to parliament and even though he can spin a tale to the media voters see through it

@John that may have some effect but I think a lot of people will let it slide given that, quote, “politicians lie all the time” (that’s not a quote from a specific politician it’s a quote from commoners, especially those who don’t know a lot about politics). Although one thing is he was caught lying and lying to Parliament is serious; indeed, if these were just accusations then it wouldn’t be as big of a deal. People in NSW still love Gladys Berejiklian despite the fact that she resigned over an alleged corruption scandal. She was even ranked as one of the most trusted politicians in Australia during her time in office. Then when corruption was serious in the NSW Labor government of Nathan Rees and Kristina Keneally, voters sent the government a message in 2011: that it was time for change, big change.

Nevertheless I expect that Steven Miles should be able to hold on to his seat but the margin will certainly decrease. Remember, this used to be a Nationals seat during the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era but then in recent times it’s become a safe Labor seat with the exception of the time the LNP won in a landslide in 2012.

Expect half the runner up candidates in the BCC election to contest seats on October 26

After the by election results on Saturday, there might be some Qld Labor MPs reconsidering if they will run again. Ipswich West and Inala were pretty ugly for the ALP. Big swings like that usually indicate a government deeply in trouble – maybe not 18% swing trouble – but not far away.
I am getting the feeling that this will be the epoch change election in Queensland – similar to 1915, 1957 and 1989. The timing is pretty similar too. There might not be a Qld Labor Government for quite some time after October.

redistributed,

Im not sure how you can be so confident about that. Everyone was saying that in 2012 for them only to lose after 1 term. And Crisifulli will likely make a few unpopular decisions which won’t make re-election easy in 2028. Even then. There’s no way I see them winning again in 2032 even with the Olympics unless they start to move towards the centre.

If there is a federal coalition government in time for the 2028 or 2032 elections. It will make it even harder for the LNP to be re-elected. I suspect the LNP will have to learn to adapt and move to the centre otherwise it is repeat 2015 again come 2028.

Federal Coalition government in May 2028 is not unlikely. Certainly by 2031 we will probably be on the other side of the political cycle federally.

‘… and the LNP’s first victory Rockhampton may well be possible too.’
Rex Pilbeam held Rockhampton ’60-’69 for the Liberal Party when the Seat was called Rockhampton South.
Pilbeam was Mayor as well, but he failed to get much pork barrel goodies from Brisbane and was defeated by Keith Wright, whose record is well remembered.

@banana it will be minority government Labor in 2025 with an outside chance minority or majority coalition and then definite coalition victory in 2028 though given the make-up of the senate the coalition would call a double dissolution before then if they got in in 2025

I’m amazed that anyone thinks an election in four years time has a definite outcome.

Agree We have no idea what the economic situation will be in 2028 so i dont know how we can make such a bullish prediction

@nimalan its not just the eonmony its how the govt is functioning and look how that worked last minority govt

@ John
Firstly, i dont even know if there will be a Labor minority government in 2025 or whether Labor will have a small majority. Labor can also fall into a minority government in 2025 even if they only loose 1 net seat to the Coalition and 3 seats to the Greens so that is not actually a great result for the Coalition if Labor is in minority due to losing seats to Greens and hardly anything to them. There are plenty of examples where the was a minority government which was successful and ended up turning into a majority government the following election (Steve Bracks, Peter Beattie, Mike Rann and Palasczuzk) all were in a minority governments and then won majorities at subsequent elections. The term between 2010-2013 probably had less to do with a minority government and more to with Rudd/Gillard rivalry.

@nimalna i can guarantee you they will lose more then 1 seat to the coaltion

i reckon they will lose about 10 seats to the coaltion creating a similar even seat number as in 2010

@ John
I gave a scenario where Labor could theoretically fall into minority government just by the Greens making gains without the coalition making significant headway. I am not actually saying that will happen. What i am trying to allude to is that a minority government does not mean that Labor is heading necessarily loose government in 2028.

@nimalan i will bet you my first born that labor goes into minority at best in 2025 after losing anywhere between 10-16 seats to the coalition. the liberals will be in government in 208 no doubt about it

@ John
I am not willing to bet anything unfortunately at this stage without knowing what the economic circumstances will be in 2025 let alone in 2028. Recent unemployment, inflation, wage growth and retail sales data was pleasing and Labor will be happy about it. The economy will determine the fate of the government not culture wars.

I think if a 2012 style wipeout is happening your most likely scenario would be this (Images)
https://ibb.co/82cDKdr
https://ibb.co/KwPKtFD

Basically for those that can’t view, I only have Labor down to 13 seats. (Gladstone, Morayfield, Murrumba, Sandgate, Nudgee, Bulimba, Bundamba, Jordan, Inala, Algester, Toohey, Waterford, Woodridge) Some of these are coin-tosses, But this is the bloody Mary style scenario for Labor. Labor only hold Gladstone outside of SEQLD.

LNP on 71, I have the Greens on 5 seats but they lose Maiwar considering an LNP landslide probably is enough to take it. The Greens would win Cooper, McConnel, Miller and Greenslopes + South Brisbane.

Sandy Bolton would lose Noosa under the landslide as well. but all other crossbenchers retain their seats. But One Nation will get a close race vs LNP in Mirani.

This is the scenario if Labor is facing 2012. Do I expect seats like Ipswich, Sandgate, Stretton, Logan. etc. to fall? Probably not, but could if it is as bad as this scenario.

LNP 71 (+37 from 2020)
ALP 13 (-39 from 2020)
GRN 5 (+3 from 2020)

Others same, but IND is 0. (-1)

You know Labor got problems when Daniel t says they gonna get wiped out

@Daniel T this would mean that Labor holds some seats they lost in 2012 but loses Mackay and Rockhampton which they somehow held onto in 2012. But I’ve been predicted Mackay and Rockhampton to fall for a while now, before the Ipswich West by-election.

Also @Daniel T you forgot Maiwar. The Greens will hold on to Maiwar.

A week is a long time in politics….. there is no certainty of a lnp win let alone a Landslide

@Daniel T
I think Sandy Bolton will hold Noosa as an independent.

The ALP has an issue with late endorsements because the amount you can spend becomes capped at $60,499.10 for a candidate and $95,964.09 for a party in a seat after April 2. Expenditure before that is uncapped. The ALP has an advantage because union donations (and other third party organisations) can be up to $90,748.65 per seat but no more than $1,043,087.97 across the state – so maximum donations in slightly less than 12 seats. However there’s a few loopholes in third-party donations, especially those that can be contrived so that their stated purpose doesn’t seek to influence a vote for or against a particular party or candidate, it just works out that way. Although the ECQ is getting touchier about that provision being abused. But direct donations run straight into the expenditure cap.

If we’re doing random predictions then here’s a few (I’m not doing easy picks like Caloundra):
1) ALP won’t take Whitsunday (not only don’t they have a candidate, there’s not even a candidate on the horizon) and will lose Mackay (mostly due to changed demographics as a FIFO hub);
2) With Barry O’Rourke stepping down the ALP will almost certainly lose Rockhampton, more for the organisational chaos than anything else;
3) Capalaba is line ball for the ALP;
4) The Greens will pick up McConnel from the ALP;
5) The LNP will pick up Gaven from the ALP;
6) Greenslopes is an extreme risk for the ALP going to The Greens;
7) I think Bulimba will shift from ALP to LNP solely on the back of the crime issue;
8) Aspley and Springwood have always been a funny set of paired seats – similar demographics but wild swings based solely on local issues. I think they’ll both go to LNP with similar swings;
9) I’m uncertain about Cynthia Lui in Cook but I think she may hold the seat for the ALP, leaving her and Glenn Butcher (Gladstone) as the only two Labor Members outside of South-East Queensland.
10) Mount Ommaney is an incredibly difficult seat to read. It always reminds me of Chatsworth – it’s rusted on for one side until someone actually puts some effort in and then it’s rusted on for the other side. Rinse and repeat.

@Mark Yore I’m predicting that of all the seats based in one city, the LNP will hold every seat in every single city except Brisbane and Ipswich.

To be clear, there are seats entirely based in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Townsville, Ipswich, Cairns, Toowoomba, Mackay, Rockhampton, Bundaberg and basically Hervey Bay given that Fraser Island has quite a small population. On an election map insets are required for those cities, with Wikipedia’s format being insets for Brisbane-Gold Coast-Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast, Townsville, Cairns, Toowoomba, Mackay, Rockhampton and Bundaberg (Hervey Bay is left out simply because Fraser Island is visible enough but if Hervey Bay loses it in a redistribution then it needs an inset). Queensland election maps have more insets than any other state or territory election maps. NSW has them for Sydney-Wollongong and Newcastle-Maitland-Central Coast, Victoria has one for Melbourne-Geelong, Western Australia has Perth-Mandurah and the Peel Region, South Australia one for Adelaide, Tasmania has one for Hobart and the NT has them for Darwin-Palmerston and Alice Springs. Federal election maps have insets for Sydney-Wollongong, Melbourne-Geelong, South East Queensland (Brisbane-Gold Coast-Sunshine Coast-Ipswich), Perth-Mandurah, Adelaide, Newcastle-Central Coast, Canberra, Hobart, Townsville and Darwin.

I think people need to be careful basing the projections on a bye-election swing. I’m not suggesting the LNP are not favorites they are. But using the bye-election swing when that swing probably will at least halve and won’t necessary be in unison at a general election doesn’t necessary add up to a 2012 rout. Paul Williams wrote the other day, If a state election were held this Saturday, the LNP would win about 53 of the state’s 92 seats which is a clear majority and a win. But it’s far cry from the 73 seat projection win Daniel T speculated.

PN, 71 not 73.
Also it isn’t my final prediction, it is just based off what COULD happen if Labor does not get their act together and the cost of living or youth crime crisis gets worse before October.

Right now if the election was held today I would say Labor lose about 20-25 seats. And the LNP will win around 60 seats.

But again, the map was to show what could happen. To be clear a 54-46 TPP would not result in my map. It is more if the LNP blow out to 58-42 or 59-41, I think there will be larger swings in different areas.

But what is clear is I expect the LNP to do better in the seats rather than the TPP. so I can see LNP win a large majority with a lower base TPP.

@ Mark Yore:
” With Barry O’Rourke stepping down the ALP will almost certainly lose Rockhampton, more for the organisational chaos than anything else;”
O’Rourke had to threaten to pull the pin to get Albanese to reverse the decision to pull funding from the Ring Road. Members in Rocky who can’t get a fair bit out of the Pork Barrel don’t last long, though O’Rourke is the first ALP Member to fall at this hurdle for a while.

@Political Nightwatchman
“I think people need to be careful basing the projections on a bye-election swing. ”

Ipswich West is a combination of outer suburban/Rural.
Going back to 1974 results, a Sitting Member losing here means their Party’s vote has collapsed.
So, it’s a bell wether seat:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_district_of_Ipswich_West#Election_results

I imagine whoever wins govt will change the redistribution frequency to every 2 elections after the next one

The Greens have started their election campaign today by announcing six candidates: Jaimyn Mayer in Clayfield, Katinka Winston-Allom in Cooper, Rebecca White in Greenslopes, Holstein Wong in McConnel, Liam Flenady in Miller and Andrew Kidd in Moggill. I think they’re all first time candidates, except for Winston-Allom who ran in Cooper in 2020 also.

The Greens also say they’re running to win 10 seats at the election. Presumably they think these are the six most likely seats. Unsure where the other four would be, perhaps Bulimba, Stafford, Ferny Grove and one other, based on their results in the federal and council elections.

I would figure the Greens will name some seats outside Brisbane to forestall criticism as an “inner city” party. In a similar way that they sometimes name less winnable Coalition seats to forestall criticism as “only running to take Labor seats.”

It’s a fact of the electoral mathematics that the Greens can only gain Labor seats and can only gain inner-city seats in this election. That won’t be the case in every election until the end of time, but it is in this one.

@wilson yea an I’m running for president at the us election

Agree John, I think a target of 10 for the Greens is overly optimistic. Even those 6 initial targets are not all guaranteed, I reckon the Greens will only be competitive in two (Cooper and McConnell) with the other four as long shot targets.

John, You can’t run for president, you need to be a natural born citizen and aged 35 or over.

I also expect the Greens will win more than 5 seats because Miles is not charismatic and will not sway young voters from switching to the Greens. Labor wouldn’t dare to be ambitious without losing voters to the LNP

Agree Yoh An,
Although i am interested if the Greens make the 2CP in Mogill

John, what a fatuous comment. Every party is allowed to show ambition and target multiple seats if they want. You’ve added absolutely nothing to the discussion.

And Yoh An and Nimalan, I expect better of you than to support nonsense comments. There’s nothing wrong with setting a high target, and nobody said any of those targets are guaranteed. It’d be arrogant and frankly dangerous for anyone to think a target was guaranteed, that’s why nobody has done so here.

@ Wilson
I want to apologize unreservedly i did not mean to be disrespectful to either the Greens or yourself. Let me explain my comment and my perspective. I agree that there is nothing wrong with showing ambition. However, as resources are scarce for any political party there has to be prioritization. In 2019, the Labor party review found they targeted too many seats. I have said before for the 2025 Federal election Labor probably should not be tempted by Moore and look at sandbagging the WA seats it gained, Labor should probably focus on Leichardt and sandbagging Blair than winning Capricornia/Flynn/Herbet etc. Longer term yes they can attempt to win those. I have also said for the Liberals even if they win government in 2025 i think Reid, Swan, Boothby and Chisholm are unlikely to be gained for that election but certainly longer term they can. For the Greens i think Wills is much more likely to be gained than Cooper.

Agree Nimalan, I’m not sure if the same can also be applied to the recent BCC election where the Greens may have spread resources too ‘thinly’ by trying a broad target strategy. Perhaps if they stuck to just 2 or 3 seats (Paddington which they narrowly won alongside Walter Taylor and Coorparoo), they might have been able to win all three.

I believe trying a broad outreach type strategy whilst good in principle, can open a party up to more attacks (as also seen by the BCC election where the LNP launched a barrage of attack ads). Using a smaller, fine target approach is better in this sense as it limits the amount of damage an opposing party can inflict.

Other than Miller the Greens target seats are all overlapping seats with their federal held seats. Agree with Wilson – I assume the remaining targets not yet announced are two of Ferny Grove, Stafford and Bulimba. Everton and Chatsworth have tiny overlaps but are LNP held so could feature in announcements.

These are all areas where Greens will need to campaign heavily anyway just to retain their seats. So I don’t think its too ambitious or a waste of resources to go hard.

Plus it’s normal for Greens to say their upper bound goal for winnable seats publicly, but when you look more closely at resourcing see less ambitious expectations for winnable seats. Last QLD election they declared a bunch of seats winnable but only really targeted the same seats as 2017 (Maiwar, South Brisbane and McConnel).

The interesting thing is Greens may end up with more seats than Labor had going into the 2015 election they won.

@daniel (sarcasm)

I think the benefits of a small target strategy can be overblown and cause opportunities to be missed. Certainly a party’s resources can be stretched thin by running too many major campaigns, but if it’s looked at from a long term perspective rather than a short term one, strong campaigns are necessary in some areas to seed the ground for a future victory, even if it doesn’t result in winning the seat in that same election. For example, the Greens ran a strong campaign in Griffith in 2019 before winning it in 2022. And you never know what might fall under the right circumstances. if Labor had held back resources in 2022, they wouldn’t have achieved surprise victories in seats like Tangney and Hasluck, which were crucial to them achieving a majority government.

Most expect this election to be a bad one for Labor. I’d say the four Labor-held seats that the Greens announced candidates in today (Cooper, Greenslopes, McConnel, Miller) should all be considered realistic gains if Labor is indeed on the nose with the public. Let’s remember that in most of the council seats corresponding to these areas, the Greens had no problem winning primary votes at Labor’s expense, their issue was with winning votes from the LNP. This should make it easier for them to win at state level, as there are usually much higher Labor primaries available to swing votes from, plus no OPV assisting the LNP.

The LNP-held seats (Clayfield and Moggill) are probably not as favourable targets if the perception of the LNP gaining government in this election proves correct. But as above, an active campaign could set the Greens up to potentially win them if the honeymoon ends for the LNP in 2028. And as blue avatar John pointed out, these electorates overlap with the Greens federal seats, so they may help with retaining those.

@Wilson Clayfield and Moggill won’t be targets. The last council elections actually saw swings away from the Greens in Hamilton (overlapping with Clayfield) and Pullenvale (overlapping with Moggill). Yes the partially overlap with the federal Greens seats of Brisbane and Ryan respectively which the Greens narrowly gained from the LNP on Labor preferences but you have to remember they take in more conservative suburbs and a lot of the booths the LNP won in 2022 in both seats are in those respective seats.

Moggill is hard for the Greens to win because it’s got some semi-rural suburbs like England Creek, Lake Manchester, etc (essentially anywhere west of Pullenvale). I guess it’s sorta like some Sydney suburbs (e.g the semi-rural suburbs of Dural and South Maroota in the Hills District are even more conservative than the rest of the Hills which is a blue-ribbon region).

Based on the by election results anything held by less then a 10% margin would have to be considered vunerable

Fair point Wilson, as the Greens in BCC did gain votes from Labor in the ALP held state seats (primarily Greenslopes and Miller but also McConnell, so if that trend is replicated then under CPV the Greens should be able to flip them.

The only question mark is if the LNP gains votes from Labor instead of the Greens, which would make it tougher for them to gain those seats. However, I don’t think that will occur since the voters in these inner-city districts are usually hostile to the LNP and are unlikely to back them even in a favorable election year.

@Yoh An Moggill definitely isn’t inner-city. Ryan is considered inner-city because it has some inner-city suburbs that overlap with the Greens state seat of Maiwar.

NP, I didn’t intend to include Moggill as my list of ‘inner city’ seats – only the four that Wilson was referring to (namely Greenslopes, Miller, McConnell and Cooper).