Queensland 2024

Pretty disastrous poll for Labor. The only silver lining for them is that the LNP primary of 44% is still lower than the 49.7% they picked up at the 2012 election, so Labor will save more seats than at that election. But still looking at huge losses.

Also notable that the Greens primary of 15% is 5.5% higher than what they achieved in 2020. Given that it’s unlikely any significant part of that swing is going to be in regional or rural areas, this doesn’t bode well for Labor in McConnel or Cooper, and might put their other inner Brisbane seats at risk too.

Agree Wilson. 5% doesn’t seem like much but if that increase is proportional on their previous vote (for every 2 votes they got in 2020 they pick up another in the same seat) then they’re going to get a very big haul. It will look a lot more like that than a uniform 5% swing everywhere.

I wonder how previous Greens swings compare to various models (uniform/linear, proportional, “target seats” only).

Blue avatar John, in 2020 the Greens primary went backwards (from 10% to 9.5 %) and yet their seat count rose (from 1 to 2), reflecting a geographic concentration of their vote. Who knows if the concentration will continue, but recent history does bode well for their prospects in their target seats held by Labor.

Here’s my map of the election, inspired by the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) in America, which is used to measure how much a state or congressional district leans to either the Democrats or the Republicans as well as to predict who will win a specific electoral race by categorising each region. You can view the map here: https://jmp.sh/ZpNIRXHQ

The categories I’ve used are: slight lean, lean, likely, safe and solid. The Cook Index only uses seven categories in total: solid Democrat, likely Democrat, lean Democrat, tossup, lean Republican, likely Republican and solid Republican. However, I’ve added extra categories and obviously the parties on my map are Australian not American. The darkest seats are solid seats while the lightest seats are slightly leaning seats.

In short: the map doesn’t look good for Labor. Every LNP seat won in 2020 is either safe or solid, and three marginal Labor seats (Bundaberg, Hervey Bay and Nicklin) are also safe. On my map, Labor is now mostly concentrated to Brisbane, with only two Labor seats outside Brisbane (Gladstone and Ipswich). Ipswich West, which the LNP won at a by-election, is rated as a likely LNP seat. The KAP has held onto its three seats, Sandy Bolton remains the independent MP for Noosa and the Greens have retained both of their seats and gained two extra seats from Labor, while One Nation has lost its only seat in Parliament after the LNP defeated Stephen Andrew in his seat of Mirani. Steven Miles’ own seat of Murrumba is classified as a slightly Labor-leaning seat, while David Crisafulli’s seat of Broadwater is a solid LNP seat.

I think the LNP will finish first in Cooper (they nearly did in 2020) but the Greens will finish second and Labor third allowing the Greens to win that seat against the LNP. It’s probably hard to see on the map but I’ve put McConnel as a likely Greens seat and Cooper as a Greens-leaning seat.

I still think the factor of Jonty Bush’s personal vote in Cooper is a significant factor in whether the seat will flip. She’s very popular in a lot of the electorate, even amongst Greens/LNP voters.

The Greens/Labor margin in Cooper is small enough that I don’t think Bush being a strong local MP (I certainly have a lot of respect for her despite being a Greens supporter) is enough to save the seat for Labor, especially with the Greens doing so well (relatively) in the polls and Labor doing so poorly.

On today’s YouGov poll you would expect the Greens to have a rather good chance at Greenslopes and Miller too, beyond the obvious possibilities of Cooper and McConnel.

I think the Queensland election will be similar to the recent NZ election, where Labor suffers a large swing against it (in primary and 2PP terms). Most of the vote will go to the LNP, with Greens and other right wing minor parties soaking up the rest.

@Caleb Thank you. LCQ would be a very real threat to the ALP vote in Pumicestone, Ipswich, Logan and Murrumba. Their preferences will probably have a decisive role in Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Gaven and Redands.

Looks like someone has finally put some effort into their strategy.

Miles’ approval rating is even worse than Campbell Newman’s and Anna Bligh’s when they lost government. I really don’t know what that means come election time. Like obviously it’s extremely bad on the face of it, and the conventional wisdom is that a premier this far underwater in approval ratings has no chance whatsoever of retaining government. but does it also mean voters have space to change their minds once they’ve got actual party platforms to consider? or is that generalised hatred for miles just going to be refocused even further into direct anti-Labor sentiment and plunge the ALP primary vote even further in the dirt? Do the polls narrow or worsen from here, I guess is what I’m asking. How much of the furniture can still be saved. I really don’t think there’s any question of a fundamental turnaround.

Miles also came right out and admitted that he expected to lose the next election, and again, conventional wisdom might suggest that’s a really bad idea insofar as giving party volunteers a reason to bother doing anything this election cycle, but also I kinda feel like there’s really no point in pretending either.

Looks like One Nation has announced more candidates in North QLD.

Geena Court – Cairns
Peter Eicens – Barron River
Brenda Turner – Hill
Michael McInnes – Mulgrave

Also, they seem to have replaced their Townsville candidate (Joanne Lynam) with Ric Daubert. They have removed any mention of her from the info for their Townsville event, and replaced it with him.

@Furtive Lawngnome one doesn’t concede defeat prematurely, WA LIBERALS found out the hard way with Zack Kirkup

What I don’t get about Steven Miles (who basically just conceded the election, a stupid move even for someone who secretly knows they had no hope, as Caleb pointed out Zak Kirkup knew he wasn’t going to win against Mark McGowan but he shouldn’t have publicly said it as it makes it seem as if you don’t care or aren’t putting in any effort). I also don’t understand why he admitted he expected bad results at the Inala and Ipswich West by-elections but didn’t try and change voter’s minds. Has Labor just had enough of governing Queensland?

Even in bad situations, you can’t just give up on voters because they will leave you if you do. Chris Hipkins lost a landslide in New Zealand in 2023 (in fact Labour did so badly that they even lost a few working-class, safe Labour seats in Auckland such as Mount Roskill, which fell to National for the first time in history, and Jacinda Ardern’s old seat of Mount Albert was just 0.05% away from falling to National for the first time ever). The polls knew that, and I’m sure he did. But he didn’t just concede to Christopher Luxon before election night. He conceded on election night like a leader traditionally would when the results are clear (for some reason he’s still Labour leader and now Opposition Leader).

Even in a situations like what happened to Kristina Keneally, Anna Bligh, Tony Abbott, Lara Giddings, Adam Giles, Colin Barnett or even Zak Kirkup, you can’t just concede before the election.

My map should be updated now. After this I expect Labor to hold only like 12 seats and I expect a huge swing in Gladstone given that it’s a regional area and Labor is becoming more Brisbane-centric.

@ AA

Thanks for the information. I recognised Geena Court as she ran in the 2022 Federal Election for ONP in Leichhardt, with a small swing towards her.

It’s curious that ONP is running a candidate in Hill against KAP Member Shane Knuth. They didn’t last election and normally tend to stay away from contesting/wasting resources in KAP Seats. ONP contested Mt Isa in 2015 against Robbie but haven’t run against Shane Knuth since… Rosa Lee Long (ONP) held Tablelands! But the 4 seats mentioned are all contiguous, so I guess it makes sense to contest them all. As an aside, I’m surprised KAP doesn’t poll stronger in Mulgrave with the lower half over-lapping with Kennedy (Bentley Park southwards).

Yes I’m surprised ONP is contesting Hill against the KAP. Although they have previously said they would run a candidate in every seat.

Also, Ric Daubert is running in Hinchinbrook, not Townsville. Not sure if Joanne Lynam is still running in Townsville.

Geez with the way QLD ALP are imploding at the moment I’ll be surprised if they emerge as a credible opposition. At this rate they’ll end up in the political wilderness for yonks, maybe even permanently in some of the regional seats north of Brisbane.

Miles is absolutely hopeless. Even Palaszczuk would’ve gone down fighting knowing that she would be defeated, unlike Miles who’s done a Zak Kirkrup and conceded without even trying. Miles and his ‘whatever’ stance towards everything from Olympics to youth crime to everything is just a joke overall. Forget about the regions, if Labor could even keep half their seats in the city from the Greens then that would be a win of sorts.

Can somebody explain to me why One Nation seemed to do so well in SEQ in the 2017 election and why they fell away so much in 2020?

covid

@Redistributed as me, Nimalan and several other users pointed out, One Nation tried to focus more on UAP-style issues like COVID-19 restrictions, lockdowns and vaccine mandates. Restrictions were often needed, lockdowns were sometimes needed but often went for unnecessarily long periods of time, and everybody’s vaccinated against COVID. Plus, lockdowns were mostly a city issue, whereas One Nation’s base is in regional and rural areas with disillusioned voters who are culturally working-class and a more socially conservative than the average Australian and who are opposed to mass immigration and certain climate change policies like ambitious cuts to carbon emissions (net zero). They’re also very supportive of the agricultural and mining industries as well as introducing nuclear power, so One Nation sees a lot of backing from them. But One Nation decided to focus more on things like COVID-19 and being a “freedom-friendly minor party” as well as some members going on about global government control and other conspiracy theories which led voters to leave them. Some One Nation voters only voted One Nation because they didn’t know who to vote for and they knew Pauline Hanson from the 1990s.

One Nation’s vote only increased in 2022 nationwide because they ran in 149/151 seats, about three times more than they did in 2019. In Queensland their vote actually decreased because they ran in most Queensland seats in 2019 and lost votes in 2022. One Nation’s vote increased in a lot of urban seats (mostly because they hadn’t contested many of them in 2019) but it decreased in regional and rural seats.

Another factor with One Nation as I’ve pointed out before is Pauline Hanson’s personal vote as she’s been a well-known figure among Australians ever since she was first elected to Parliament in 1996.

Anyway, the average TPP polling for the LNP at the moment on the state level is 51.05%, but that goes back between both Labor Premiers of this current government (Steven Miles and Annastacia Palaszczuk). The average LNP TPP since Steven Miles has been in office is currently 52.5%, while between the 2020 state election and the resignation of Annastacia Palaszczuk it was 50.3%.

Personal approval ratings are bad too. Steven Miles is now more unpopular than Palaszczuk ever was, and he’s now even more unpopular than Anna Bligh when she lost a historic landslide, being reduced to seven seats, meaning they couldn’t even form a full soccer or cricket team (while the LNP could have formed an entire league).

Nether, Your map was similar to mine except you gave a few more seats to Labor, But we seem to agree that Bancroft falls before Murrumba. I can tell you as a former resident of Bancroft, there will be a monster swing (possibly 15-20%) because of youth crime (big issue in developing areas like North Lakes) and this is the area the murder of Emma Lovell occured.

Development also a big issue because most residents are fed-up with the North Lakes golf course fiasco. the developers pulled out last minute so the council did not get a vote on it. However the LNP back in 2020 did promise to not allow it, whether they will promise again this time is their decision. but conventional wisdom says it would be smart of them to do so.

Labor is done, Miles is just a complete joke.

Interestingly he will be the first male to lose an election as Labor leader since Nev Warburton in 1986. (Goss technically won 1995 but a by-election after a disputed result switched the balance of power)

Will Crisafulli’s support for a 75% emissions cut cost him in regional QLD (outside Brisbane, SC and GC)?
The critics probably will vote for KAP and ONP and send preferences to LNP anyway. I doubt that in 6 months it would be as big of an issue as those on social media and Sky News make it out to be. I still think crime and law and order, the Olympics and cost of living will be bigger issues.

Well it looks like we’ll have 8 parties for the QLD Election with Family First applying to register. It would be pretty tight for any other parties to apply to register with under 6 months to go until the election.

The recent YouGov Queensland state poll recorded a 56% 2PP for the LNP, equivalent to a 9.2% swing towards the LNP. This will mean a 21-seat loss for Labor to the LNP on uniform 2PP swings (excluding Inala, plus LNP retaining Ipswich West), without even considering the loss of inner Brisbane seats to the Greens. Psephologist Kevin Bonham has given a seat estimate of LNP 57 ALP 27 Greens 5 KAP 2 ON 1 IND 1 based on this poll, which points to an LNP landslide victory.

Queensland Labor only holds three non-Brisbane seats with a margin greater than 10% (Maryborough, Mulgrave and Gladstone). Since swings against Labor will be larger outside of Brisbane, Labor is heading for a wipe-out in regional Queensland, on track to lose all but three seats outside of Brisbane. Even seats like Cairns (which the LP/NP/LNP has won only once), Mackay and Rockhampton (which the LP/NP/LNP has never won), are now at risk. Labor needs to stem the loss of support in Brisbane as much as possible to not make the 2024 state election a 2012 repeat, which polls so far show it won’t be.

@Joseph I think that seat count looks a bit generous for the ALP. They could be in for a bigger whipping than the ones the Nationals/Liberals got during the Beattie years, although maybe not the disaster of Anna Bligh vs Campbell Newman in 2012. If they start sandbagging their seats now they might get somewhere near that number but I think they could be wiped out in the regions particularly given Queenslanders on a Federal level have all but deserted the ALP and Miles just doesn’t care about the job now.

I imagine that 75% will be reduced once they get it

or just ignore it like labor has

@Joseph but Labor won’t hold Maryborough and they’ll probably lose Mulgrave too.

@Daniel T yeah I did see your map a while ago I did remember it was similar to mine. Murrumba might stay slightly because of Steven Miles being Premier but he would still be in big trouble — no, that’s an understatement, he’ll be in deep, deep shit. He could lose his own seat.

I have a feeling that Gladstone might become marginal after this election and potentially winnable for the LNP in the future.

This election could potentially be like 2011 in NSW which was a massive landslide for the Coalition but they held on for three more terms and relatively-narrowly failed to win a fourth but some seats were realigned. Some Western Sydney seats like Camden, Parramatta, Penrith, Riverstone and Winston Hills (partially overlapping with the old Labor seat of Toongabbie and the old Liberal seat of Baulkham Hills) are now very competitive, as are seats like Gosford, Port Stephens and The Entrance, along with some other Sydney seats like Coogee, Drummoyne and Ryde. Drummoyne and Ryde are good examples of this: these seats are now both marginal Liberal seats (note the retiring member factor in both seats in 2023) that I expect the Liberals to retain in 2027 but they used to be Labor seats. They also both have large ethnic communities, including large Chinese, Italian and Korean communities. Then there’s Bathurst which Labor lost in 2011 after the retirement of Gerard Martin with a record swing seeing the Nationals win 73.7% of the TPP vote and it’s now a seat Labor will never win again (the current margin is 73.6% for Paul Toole, the Nationals MP since 2011 and former Deputy Premier under Dominic Perrottet); indeed, the Nationals TPP vote in Bathurst has been over 65% at every election since 2011.

I think those who are offering predictions how long Labor will be in the wilderness ought to remember 2012 and 2015. Many people believed after the 2012 rout that Labor were finished in Queensland for at least a decade, yet they came back to power within three years because the LNP made a plethora of very unpopular moves in government. Granted, Crisafulli seems less extreme than Newman and you’d hope the LNP would have learned from their past mistakes, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll be in power for the next 2-3 terms. One possible scenario is, if the cost of living crisis doesn’t get better over the next four years, then 2028 will lead to the end of multiple incumbents at all levels of government, including whoever is running Queensland at that time.

@wilson crisafulli isn’t Newman.libs lost because of Newman

There is no upper house and if the Liberal get a bit too confident as they might shoot themselves in the foot, however from observation Crisafulli seems to be a lot more cautious then Newman ever was.

@Votante, I suspect it won’t change the vote much at this stage as so much is probably baked in, but might bump up ON a little and keep some LNP vote floating to the Greens. I don’t think the issue goes away though – I think these policies do bleed directly into cost of living, I think most people intuitively get that.

@Wilson, the danger for Labor is not a 2011 type wipeout, it is a 2011 type wipeout and the Greens picking up 4 or 5 (or more) seats. That would be harder for Labor to recover from in the way they did in 2015.

Don’t you mean 2012 not 2011? 2011 was the year NSW had a state election (which the Coalition opposition won in a historic landslide), while 2012 was the year Queensland and the NT had elections (both of which saw comprehensive victories for the Coalition (technically the LNP and the CLP, respectively) opposition defeat aging incumbent Labor governments, with the Queensland election being a historic landslide for the LNP).

It’s interesting to imagine what QLD politics would be like if Labor were the 3rd largest party and Greens formed opposition.

But if the bottom falls out as badly as 2012 for Labor and they’re winning back all Brisbane seats they won then, then not sure the Greens could stop that happening in all their target seats (on 2012 results LNP would win all of them except South Brisbane). They’d be positioned to pick up some of the “fed up with Labor” vote in the target seats (and send it back to Labor on preferences) but most of that vote is going blue.

The best case scenario for Greens is Labor takes a bit of a hit in Brisbane and comes 3rd in Green target seats, but doesn’t lose large chunks of their vote to the LNP. In this scenario Labor are still going to hang on to a whole lot of seats in Brisbane and will remain ahead of the Green seat haul.

Crisafulli needs to win 12 seats to win majority – the 3 Townsville seats, 4 Cairns area seats, Mackay, Keppel, and the seats that clearly seem to be COVID specials (Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra) get him there. Not to say he won’t win any seats off Labor in Brisbane, just that he doesn’t need to. Crisafulli’s grip on government will still be very secure if he has a big cushion of “Very safe LNP” seats in the North, whether Labor has 35 seats or 7.

@John me, @Daniel T and a few others have predicted that Labor would win like 12 seats, better than 2012 because they would hold on to some seats they didn’t in 2012 (such as Waterford and Woodridge) while they would lose the three regional seats they somehow held in 2012 (Mackay, Mulgrave and Rockhampton), plus they won’t have South Brisbane which will go to the Greens.

Also, the good thing about Crisafulli and his appeal is he may be able to have a good appeal on the Gold Coast since he lives there but also on North Queensland (namely Townsville) since he was born and raised up there (he was the member for Mundingburra from 2012 to 2015, and now the member for Broadwater since 2017). And if he sweeps the Gold Coast and Townsville that alone is enough for Labor to be reduced to just a bare majority of 47 seats (51 (excluding Ipswich West) – 3 (Mundingburra, Thuringiwa and Townsville) – 1 (Gaven) = 47), so if you add in some other seats then technically Labor could still win most Brisbane seats but lose government (in 2015 both major parties fell short of a majority because Labor swept most of Brisbane plus all of Cairns and Townsville, while the LNP swept the entire Gold Coast and the entire Sunshine Coast plus all of Toowoomba).

From what I can gather, I see the LNP falling short in Cairns, Ferny Grove, Rockhampton, Mansfield & Oodgeroo.

@john np if Daniel t says it you take it seriously too. Him and mick up about 99% of the hard rusted on left vote on this site

I personally think the appeal of any opposition leader is a rather minor factor in an election. Governments lose elections. Oppositions don’t win them. Labor will lose this state election on their record and merit, not because of any perceived appeal presented by Crisafulli.

“would hold on to some seats they didn’t in 2012 (such as Waterford and Woodridge)”

@Nether Portal

Labor’s then Woodridge Mp Desley Scott retained Woodridge in 2012 on a 5.8% margin.

@Caleb

LNP will retain Oodgeroo. I know they have a new candidate in Amanda Stoker. But I just see how they could lose that seat on the pendulum swing what’s going on now. I also think it’s exaggerated the chances of a independent taking the seat. Independent Claire Richardson didn’t even make the the two party preferred at the last state election.

@Political Nighwatchman sorry my mistake. Waterford they didn’t win in 2012 though.

@John yeah when a Labor supporter says it’s bad for Labor it’s bad for Labor.

@Caleb Labor won’t gain any seats from the LNP so Oodgeroo is definitely not going to Labor. Also, I see the LNP winning all those seats after what happened in Ipswich West and the massive swing in Inala.

@NQ View I would argue that occasionally the opposite can happen. In NSW, Labor formed a minority government but both leaders were viewed favourably (Perrottet being preferred Premier in the polls). In Victoria on the other hand, Labor won the last election but both leaders were viewed negatively (with Andrews being preferred Premier in the polls).

@neither portal Yeah. My point wasn’t about favorability ratings though; it was about the personal appeal of the opposition leader effectively being the greatest deciding factor in an election. I’d argue nobody has ever worn this distinction in Queensland – not Goss in 1989, certainly not Borbidge in 1995/96, not Beattie in 1998, not Newman in 2012 and not Palaszczuk in 2015. The only one federally who may come to find is Bob Hawke in 1983.

@N P Ipswich West was a By-Election so the swing was exaggerated

@NQ View I see. Yeah I agree on that, I don’t think the Opposition Leader’s popularity has ever decided an election.

@Caleb I still expect them to hold onto Ipswich West. Potentially they could sandbag it in the future.

Agree NP, the large swing (10%+) in these by elections is indicative of a landslide result – similar to the Ryde, Cabramatta and Penrith by election for NSW prior to the 2011 landslide loss for Labor and also the Stafford/Redcliffe by elections held prior to the 2015 election loss for Campbell Newman and the LNP in Queensland.