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Tbh I was personally confident that Labor was going to lose here given at the time the Local member Fiona Phillips didn’t seem to have cut through and Andrew Constance had more name recognition. It appears that the climate Independent preferences are what helped Labor improve in the ttp here.
This seat usually does not follow the national/state trend and is not a bellwether. In 2013 upon retirement of Joanna Gash, Labor had hopes of winning the seat despite a bad result statewide/nationwide.
This seat and Lingiari i did not want to make a prediction as it is more determined by local factors.
@Spacefish the southern Illawarra/Shoalhaven area were badly hit by Black Summer and the scars of the bushfires probably lives on in for most residents. Liberals voting against climate action and ditching net zero will not help them here as it could be taken as a sign that they don’t care about the environment and disasters.
@spacefish i think it was the national and statewide swing against the liberals. if the polls pre campaign had held constance would be the member for gilmore, dutton the member for dickson and posssibly even the pm.
obviously there was some leakage and protest vote against Mundine as there was a 55-45 vote in favour of the right in 2019 yet the left overcame it to win 52.2-47.5. if scomo had not intervened the liberals would probably still hold gilmore.