To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Tbh I was personally confident that Labor was going to lose here given at the time the Local member Fiona Phillips didn’t seem to have cut through and Andrew Constance had more name recognition. It appears that the climate Independent preferences are what helped Labor improve in the ttp here.
This seat usually does not follow the national/state trend and is not a bellwether. In 2013 upon retirement of Joanna Gash, Labor had hopes of winning the seat despite a bad result statewide/nationwide.
This seat and Lingiari i did not want to make a prediction as it is more determined by local factors.
@Spacefish the southern Illawarra/Shoalhaven area were badly hit by Black Summer and the scars of the bushfires probably lives on in for most residents. Liberals voting against climate action and ditching net zero will not help them here as it could be taken as a sign that they don’t care about the environment and disasters.
@spacefish i think it was the national and statewide swing against the liberals. if the polls pre campaign had held constance would be the member for gilmore, dutton the member for dickson and posssibly even the pm.
obviously there was some leakage and protest vote against Mundine as there was a 55-45 vote in favour of the right in 2019 yet the left overcame it to win 52.2-47.5. if scomo had not intervened the liberals would probably still hold gilmore.
@Nimalan,
Fair enough, I just personally thought at the time given Labor’s dire polling nationally and with the individual mrp poll and the super small margin Labor would be too busy sandbagging other electorates.
@Tommo9,
If that was the case then why didn’t Gilmore swing to the Labor in 2022 and Liberals have only just dumped net zero.
@John,
Labor would’ve likely held onto the seat in 2019 if Scomo hadn’t got involved but I’m not sure Gilmore would’ve being able withstand the Labor tidal wave.
Sorry Liberal would’ve held on not Labor
@Spacefish Andrew Constance’s candidacy would’ve been a big factor. 2022 was when he was strongly for climate action and was critical of Scomo which resonated well with everyone in the electorate given the PM at the time literally didn’t hold a hose to the situation. In 2025 Dutton is seen as even worse as a PM candidate and Constance this time was parroting nuclear and also said we needed to withdraw from Paris, which I imagine didn’t fly well with the population and of course there was the Teal which took votes from the Libs and preferences went Labor’s way.
The result in 2025 shows there is no sure thing
A bad result for the Libs in 2025. Swing against the Liberals in Gilmore much worse compared to neighbouring seats. Liberals had swings towards them in Whitlam and Hume, and Labor only had a small 1% swing in Eden Monaro. Maybe a reversion to the norm in Gilmore and nationally will see this seat change hands in 2028.