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The Libs had their best shot of winning this seat in 2025 with really favourable boundaries and a strong candidate in Katie Allen. Of course, they blew it. This is a seat that is very hostile to Dutton. Glen Waverley was once among the safest areas for the Libs and half of blue-ribbon Higgins was put in. Even in 2007 and 2010, the Libs would have held on with current boundaries. Like neighbouring Menzies, the large and rapidly growing Chinese community will be key for the Libs to win this seat back. Future redistributions will likely push Chisholm into more Labor friendly territory and resemble older iterations. If Chisholm picks up Oakleigh and Clayton, it’s likely the Libs will never win it ever again without an expansion of parliament.