ALP 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Craig Crawford, since 2015.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Barron River covers the northern suburbs of Cairns, including Smithfield, Redlynch and Kuranda. Most of the electorate lies in the Cairns local government area, with small parts contained in Douglas Shire.
History
The electorate of Barron River was first created for the 1972 election. At most elections this seat has been won by one of the parties who won the election.
Bill Wood won the seat for the ALP in 1972. He had previously sat as Member for Cook since 1969. He lost Barron River in 1974. He later served as a member of the ACT Legislative Assembly from 1989 to 2004.
Martin Tenni won Barron River for the National Party in 1974. He held the seat until 1989, when the seat was won by Lesley Clark of the ALP, as part of the Labor Party’s return to government after decades of conservative rule.
Clark lost to Lyn Warwick of the Liberal Party in 1995 before returning to the seat in 1998. She retired in 2006.
Steve Wettenhall was elected for the ALP in 2006. He was re-elected in 2009, and served as a parliamentary secretary from 2009 to 2012.
In 2012, LNP candidate Michael Trout defeated Wettenhall. Trout was felled in 2015 by Labor candidate Craig Crawford. Crawford was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Bree James (Liberal National)
- Craig Crawford (Labor)
- Ben Campbell (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Peter Eicens (One Nation)
- Denise Crew (Greens)
Assessment
Barron River is a marginal Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Craig Crawford | Labor | 12,385 | 39.5 | +6.0 |
| Linda Cooper | Liberal National | 12,092 | 38.5 | +7.9 |
| Aaron Mcdonald | Greens | 4,134 | 13.2 | +0.7 |
| Susan Andrews | One Nation | 1,852 | 5.9 | -10.9 |
| Adam Rowe | Informed Medical Options | 575 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Jenny Brown | United Australia | 345 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,059 | 3.3 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Craig Crawford | Labor | 16,653 | 53.1 | +1.2 |
| Linda Cooper | Liberal National | 14,730 | 46.9 | -1.2 |
Booths in Barron River have been divided into three areas: centre, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 58.8% in the centre and 59% in the north. The LNP polled 52.1% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the south to 17.6% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 17.6 | 59.0 | 5,866 | 18.7 |
| South | 12.3 | 47.9 | 2,641 | 8.4 |
| Central | 17.0 | 58.8 | 1,851 | 5.9 |
| Pre-poll | 11.1 | 50.2 | 13,668 | 43.6 |
| Other votes | 12.8 | 54.1 | 7,357 | 23.4 |
Election results in Barron River at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
I reckon the LNP margin will be fairly secure, at least 5%. Maybe not as high as the 9.5% achieved by Michael Trout at the 2012 landslide victory.
LNP gain.
@Feel the Bern agree and I think it will be higher than in 2012.
Latest polls released today covering 14-19 Oct (as reported in Wikipedia) show the LNP lead narrowing to 53/47. Mid Oct it was 58/42.
I still wouldn’t put it past the LNP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A few more idiotic antics like the one we discussed above should do it.
All things being equal this should be a lnp gain
…… then again?
feeling like the perhaps overly optimistic prognostications by some pro-LNP commenters on here will begin to look silly if this 53/47 poll is an indication of anything to come. seats like this one could be coming back into play with a 2PP that competitive, and there’s a high chance of a hung parliament.
@Midnight Citizen well even if it’s 53-47% the margin here is 3.1% and the swing is gonna a fair bit bigger in North Queensland than in SEQ so 10-15% isn’t that bad of a prediction. I reckon about 13% LNP.
@Nether Portal i agree that the swing in north queensland will be high, but in cairns/FNQ? not so much. right now i think ALP holds on in cairns, mulgrave, and cook, this one will be close if the ALP is actually in with a decent shot statewide but right now still an LNP gain.
The swing 8n Cairns will be less than Townsville
@Midnight Citizen heaps of people have already voted and are already gonna vote before Saturday, Labor is not within a decent shot statewide at all. They will lose, they have already lost.
It seems like people are forgetting that the poll was conducted by Resolve Strategic, which is notably very Labor-leaning (they’ve always had the LNP TPP about 3% under what other polls say).
The LNP TPP statewide should be at least 56%. A few weeks ago I would’ve said 59%.
@Mick agreed, but still big and bigger there than in Cairns itself.
I agree with Midnight Citizen and Mick. Labor will hold on to Cook and Mulgrave – not sure about Cairns – and the swing in these seats will be less than the statewide swing.
It’s ironic that of the four candidates running for the LNP in the far north that the best one has attracted by far the worst publicity.