Bundaberg – Queensland 2024

Very curious that this seat exists as the hole of the donut that is Burnett. In this regard it is like no other seat in Queensland. I wonder if consideration had ever been given to splitting the seat and merging the eastern half with the Bargara side of Burnett, and the other half going with the Gin Gin – Agnes Water part of Burnett. Such an idea may run counter to the seeming desire to consolidate provincal city centres in their own seat – the seats of Hervey Bay, Gladstone, Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns all seem to be drawn in this fashion, whilst Toowoomba is split in half. I wonder what a future redistribution here may look like. Maybe if Callide needs more electors the ultimate knock-on effects would see Bundaberg as we know it change.

Labor barely won it at the last election. I would say LNP regain.

@Ben – minor typographical error “Election results in Pullenvale at the 2020” should read Bundaberg not Pullenvale… unless Brisbane has decided to take over here too. Keep up the good work though!

Still well over a year to go, but with current polling trends, you’d think the LNP would re-gain this seat again.

Thanks PO, Bundaberg was my first guide to write and I used the BCC guide as a template.

@ NQ View the dynamic between Bundaberg and Burnett is unique for now and has been for some time, but I suspect that if the larger regional electorates continue to fall behind the provincial cities, Rockhampton and Keppel may be forced into the same sort of situation.

To name the worst offenders – Mirani, Burdekin, Callide, Gregory and Traeger are doing quite poorly at keeping up with growth in the southeast of the state. Mundingburra in Townsville is the same, although it’s provincial. Elsewhere such as the Fraser Coast and Toowoomba region are doing more than fine.

When I’m bored I try to look at how these seats may be redistributed in the future assuming they continue to trend negatively, and I struggle quite a bit to come up with boundaries that make sense (with the assumption that parliament will not be expanded again so soon, and that no regional seat will be lost in favor of SEQ).

I got off on a bit of a tangent above and forgot to include any of my thoughts on Bundaberg – This seat is surely an LNP gain. I’ve spent quite a bit of time here in the past and it’s no more the Labor stronghold it once was. Even a tiny swing to the LNP statewide will send it back their way. I was shocked as it was when Labor took it in 2020.

This seat can entrench its sitting mp.. I would not assume this is a certain lnp win

Over 12% of Bundaberg are over the age of 75 (#2 in Queensland for people aged over 85). This is yet another division like Hervey Bay (#1 Aged Over 85+ in QLD) where Labor can attribute a lot of their success at the last election to the elderly staring down their own mortality at the height of the pandemic and thanking Palaszczuk’s strong Covid posturing at the ballot box (Early Voting Centre).

https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/bundaberg

Again, like Hervey Bay, It is likely that there will be a receding of the tide here from 2020, let alone the fact that only ten votes needed to go the other way for LNP to hold onto this one last time.

Mick might be right though. There is a considerable chance of a sophomore surge getting Smith back over the line again.

I rate Bundy as a tossup or narrow LNP gain despite its ultra-slim margin. I wrote in the QLD election guide thread that Nicklin, Caloundra and Hervey Bay would probably be the first to flip back to the LNP. The first two are normally Liberal stronghold seats. Hervey Bay swings back and forth but there was a retiring LNP member in 2020. As @SEQ Observer alluded to – the hard border and pandemic politics played into Labor’s favour in seats with a large elderly population.

QLD does have some oddly shaped electorates that are a collection of small towns in between regional cities e.g. Mirani, Burdekin, and Burnett, on the other hand, encloses Bundaberg. You also have one each for Cairns, Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton and separate ones for their suburbs. NSW doesn’t have regional electorates (e.g Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Albury, Wagga Wagga) that are as geographically small as their QLD equivalents.

LNP have preselected Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers CEO and Qld Horticultural Council chair Bree Watson as their canidate. I agree with some of the sentiment that it would be foolish to completely write Labor off here. It has a strong Labor history in this seat and the recent years (Dr Death, member failing to pay her rates etc) aren’t really a fair reflection of it. However if the statewide polls are to be belived then I would think the LNP would certainly be favourites at the moment. But with incumbency, sophmore surge, and the seat with a strong Laor history. I think there will be resistance rather then then just the typical pendulum swing by just judging the margin.

@nightwatcen if they can’t overcome a 7 vote deficieir here they won’t be in government in QLD I can guarantee that. Should be a definite pickup for the lnp

I remember Albury nsw. Labor won narrowly and held the seat for 10 years. This is the unknown factor in non Brisbane seats… the personal vote

I could see the LNP gaining this (which they will) but then possibly lose this in 2028 if the LNP are on the nose and are a 1 term government. But that would also probably require the Coalition to be in power federally which is unlikely (or at least they would have only been in power for a few months since an election in 2028 federally is probable) and likely will be the last big test for a premier Crisafulli before he tries for a 2nd term which has not occurred successfully since Joh in 86′ for the conservative side.

If the LNP win in 2024 and lose this in 2028, This potentially will become the longest string of 1-term MP’s in the states history, unless anyone can name other examples at a state or federal level that changed hands after 1 term 4-5 successive times?

The federal seat of Bass also has a record of being an ‘ejector’ seat. It has changed hands after 1 term on 3 consecutive occasions (1993-1998 and also 2013-2019).

Yoh An,
A good example of polar opposites.

Bundaberg has elected just 2 Lib/Nat/LNP MPs since 1896 and it doesn’t look like there will be another one for a long time.

Labor will especially be done here if former MP turned independent, Jack Dempsey runs here and polls 10% and those preferences go to the LNP

@Ben Raue can you unlock a guide for a Townsville-based seat? I’m curious as to see how they vote.

C’mon man, I’m trying to make a living from this stuff. If it’s so useful for you, please sign up. It doesn’t cost much.