Queensland 2024

Nether Portal, I think you have a very narrow definition of targets. As I said above, running a campaign knowing you’re not going to win the seat this time around can still be useful strategically.

@Wilson have a look at my target seat maps. They aren’t narrow.

Link: https://jmp.sh/aXqreMVA

Heaps on there. So far I’ve done federal seats and state seats in NSW and WA.

I’ll do a map of Queensland target seats later today.

Yeah, I looked at your maps. I stand by my above comment.

Wilson, I believe NP is the opposite of you – he/she is overly optimistic on projections for LNP gains and appears to be pessimistic on possible gains for Labor and the Greens.

NP, also you were incorrect with your earlier comment that the Greens suffered a loss of vote for both Hamilton and Pullenvale wards. They actually achieved a small primary vote swing (2-3%) in Hamilton to finish in 2nd place instead of Labor who made the 2CP count in previous elections.

Yoh An, I don’t understand your comment directed at me. I’m not the opposite of Nether Portal because I’m not pessimistic on the LNPs potential gains at all – actually I think they’ll gain several seats from Labor, possibly into the double digits. Also, I don’t think Labor will gain a single seat, and I think the Greens only have a realistic chance in 4-5 seats, and will probably only win 2-3 of them. I wouldn’t call that overly optimistic based on what you’ve predicted above.

I’ve made a map of Queensland state targets seats. You can view it here: https://jmp.sh/Zfup7mj3 (apologies for the labels being messed up, the website I used must’ve messed it up).

Purple seats are major party targets, turquoise seats are teal targets (or potential losses), yellow seats are Greens targets, pink seats are One Nation targets (or potential losses) and magenta seats are KAP targets (or potential losses). The darker the shade, the more targeted the seat is. Seats that are light blue are LNP seats that aren’t in play, red seats are Labor seats that aren’t in play, green seats are Greens seats that aren’t in play (Maiwar and South Brisbane) and maroon seats are KAP seats that aren’t in play (Hill and Traeger). Not much red can be seen on the map, however.

Although it’s widely predicted that the LNP will win this election in a landslide, I decided to add a few targets that Labor will need to win if they want to retain government in an upset victory. However, the vast majority are seats the LNP will be targeting, and that’s most Labor seats.

Almost all of the top target seats for the LNP are marginal Labor seats in regional cities: Barron River, Bundaberg, Cairns, Caloundra, Gaven, Hervey Bay, Mundingburra, Nicklin, Thuringowa and Townsville. The coastal seat of Keppel in Central Queensland is also a top target. Only three top target seats for the LNP are in Brisbane: Mansfield, Pumicestone and Redlands, all marginal Labor seats with a history of being won by the LNP. The only other top target seat is the safe Labor seat of McConnel, which is a top-priority Greens target.

Plenty of marginal and fairly safe seats also made the list of high-priority targets but fell short of the top-priority target list. These include the regional Labor seats of Mackay and Rockhampton, both of which are seats the LNP has a good chance of winning for the first time in history, as well as the regional Labor seat of Maryborough. The only red seat (Labor seat not in play) outside Brisbane and Ipswich is Gladstone, even though I predict there could be a huge swing there which would make it competitive in the future as Labor becomes more and more focused on Brisbane and less and less competitive in regional areas.

As for the other Greens targets: in addition to the top-priority target of McConnel, I’ve also put Cooper as a mid-priority target and Miller as a high-priority target. The KAP might face a small challenge from the LNP in Hinchinbrook, while One Nation will face a moderate challenge from the LNP in Mirani (if the LNP finishes first or even just slightly close in second then One Nation will lose because Labor and Greens preferences will flow to each other and then to the LNP). Teal independent Sandy Bolton might face a small challenge from the LNP in Noosa while LNP shadow minister and former Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls could potentially face a moderate challenge from a teal in Clayfield (but I would expect that even if a teal holds on, Tim will still win because his views tend to align with the Moderate faction of the Liberal Party, for example he voted to legalise abortion and euthanasia in Queensland).

Overall, the LNP’s top target regions are Central and North Queensland, which includes David Crisafulli’s home city of Townsville. The Greens will mostly focus on the inner-city suburbs of Brisbane that overlap with their three federal seats, while Labor will be trying to fight off challenges from the Greens in the inner-city and the LNP in the regions and the outer suburbs, and I suspect Labor will also need to campaign hard in some of their safe seats in Logan and Ipswich after the shock result of the by-elections in Inala and Ipswich West. I’ve put Inala as a red seat (not in play) and Ipswich West as a high-priority target (Labor will be trying hard to regain it while the LNP will be trying hard to increase their margin in a working-class seat that Labor held for so long without much difficulty).

Nether Portal, the Climate 200 movement have no presence in Queensland, so there won’t be any significant teal campaign in Clayfield.

@Yoh An I’m indeed a he. And I guess maybe I’m more pessimistic about Greens gains because I look at historical trends and swings a lot as well as federal, state and local results. But also I doubt Moggill will be a good target for the Greens for the same reason Pullenvale wasn’t (and still isn’t): suburbs like Brookfield, England Creek and Lake Manchester won’t vote Greens. If you look at the 2022 federal election results in Ryan you can see that most of the suburbs in the state seat of Moggill voted LNP and if you look at the results of the Voice referendum you can see that they also mostly voted No.

As for Coalition and Labor gains I tend to be more open-minded because again, I look at historical trends and swings as well as other election results. I’m a Liberal member but I’ve always tried to cover elections without too much bias, and my redistributions don’t favour the Coalition in every seat (my NSW one just happens to in most seats and that makes sense since the last few happened to benefit Labor).

@Yoh An, thanks for the correction. The Greens did indeed get a swing to them on primary votes in Hamilton. However, on a TCP basis, the LNP had a swing to them in Enoggera, Hamilton, Pullenvale and The Gap, which were all LNP vs Greens contests overlapping at least partially with federal Greens seats. The LNP even got a small swing to them in The Gabba which is a safe Greens ward. However, I will point out that the TCP swing to the LNP in Hamilton was very small at just –0.7% and the LNP actually had a very small swing against them on primaries (–0.5%), so the TCP swing to the LNP in Hamilton is a result of the Labor primary vote dropping 3.0% which saw them slip to third place.

@Wilson isn’t Sandy Bolton a teal?

NP, Sandy Bolton was elected before the ‘teal’ movement began so she is considered different to the current crop of urban independents. I would say she is like Indi MP Helen Haines, who does vote in a similar manner to the teal independents but is technically not considered part of that group.

Nether Portal, am I reading your map right when you say that Ferny Grove, Bulimba and Greenslopes are Coalition targets, Chatsworth is a Labor target, Clayfield’s going to get a remotely serious teal candidate and Maiwar won’t be targeted at all?

@Yoh An oh okay I knew she was elected in 2017 but I thought she was now affiliated with Climate 200.

@Furtive Lawngnome my definition of a target seat is broad and that’s why different shades are used.

* I didn’t mean to include Greenslopes, that’s just a mistake I made (I’ll fix the map later when I have time because the text is buggered up too). Bulimba and Ferny Grove are distant targets but maybe not as winnable anymore, but margin-wise they still technically are.
* Chatsworth isn’t really a Labor target nor is Everton in fact there really aren’t Labor targets but if Labor were to very surprisingly win government with an increased majority (it’s very unlikely that Labor win this election and there’s virtually no chance that they’ll get an increased majority) then they would need those.
* Clayfield is somewhat tealish or small-l-liberal to a degree but Tim Nicholls is a good member so I think he’ll be able to hold on.
* Greens seats seem to be solid unless they’re in areas where they traditionally got a lot of support from teals (if a teal contested Ryan he/she would’ve won with a bigger margin than the Greens do, and it’s probably the same in Brisbane but not Griffith), protest voters (people who were dissatisfied with the major parties and particularly their leaders that decided to vote for the Greens thinking they were a legit third party before discovering they had stupid policies) or hippies if they’re a declining demographic in that area (in some towns (not Byron Bay) where there was once a big hippie culture the Greens vote is going down and the Coalition vote is going up because the Greens are increasingly leftist and hippies are increasingly less common in those towns (usually small rural communities in the middle of the bush, but again, not ones near Ballina and Byron), but the city isn’t the same).

So for the reason that Greens seats are usually solid I think the Greens would hold Maiwar and South Brisbane with increased margins.

Maiwar has a pretty significant teal vote for Queensland. more to the point there are centrists, protest voters and the generally politically disengaged everywhere in Brisbane, many if not most of whom voted either Labor or Greens last election and may well reconsider this time. A lot of 2020 voters simply voted on the basis of who was treating COVID seriously (at the time) and who wasn’t. The Greens have consolidated their vote among young inner city renters but those people are increasingly finding that they can’t actually afford to remain inner city renters anyway. Statewide polls are predicting a near double digit 2pp swing to the LNP this election. Maiwar’s 2pp isn’t that big to begin with. I agree that the Greens are generally better at holding seats they’ve already won despite general left/right election trends, but it’s at least possible if not likely to flip.

Unless the climate 200 people suddenly decide to bombard Clayfield out of nowhere, this close to the election date – and I don’t see why they would when all the political headwinds are in the LNP’s favour – there will not be a teal/independent candidate in Clayfield that will do anything remotely noteworthy.

In regards to the general discussion on the Greens: I think Ben Messenger’s probably right that what the party says are their target seats and what they realistically hope to win are probably two different things, and they likely won’t put too many chips into Moggill or Clayfield. They’re really only going after the Labor seats. Labor probably suspects as much, and also suspects it’s not likely to retain government no matter what it does. It’s possible, maybe probable, given the practical reality and the ideological priorities of modern Qld Labor, that they basically give away everything north of Gladstone, if not most of its marginal ALP/LNP seats (and government, obv), for the sake of sandbagging every seat the Greens could possibly do well in. McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller for sure, but also Bulimba, Stafford and Ferny Grove too.

@Nether Portal “green seats are Greens seats that aren’t in play (Maiwar and South Brisbane)”
South Brisbane is a tricky seat to predict, mostly because The Greens and ALP have been so close in primary votes and it’s LNP preferences that decided the result. In 2020 the LNP directed preferences to The Greens (or more correctly directed them away from Jackie Trad); this election they may well direct them away from The Greens or issue a double-sided HTV.
If you look at the 2020 results you can see that the LNP preferences weren’t reliable, because a significant proportion of LNP voters are willing to vote against the HTV rather than vote for The Greens. If the LNP preferences the ALP I expect to see a much larger proportion of votes transferred this time.
There’s also a couple of local issues – how long Amy MacMahon will be sidelined after her car accident; what the impact of crime will be in the Eastern part of the electorate; and the impact of planning decisions in the Western part of the electorate. Add to that the bubbling mess that is the Olympics and you have an electorate that is not only hard to read but also subject to vote-changing issues.

@Furtive Lawngnome “The Greens have consolidated their vote among young inner city renters but those people are increasingly finding that they can’t actually afford to remain inner city renters anyway.”
Yep. In the long run South Brisbane is more likely to go back to being an LNP/ALP fight simply on the back of planning policy.

Furtive, while I wouldn’t put it past Labor to take the unusual step of surrendering to the LNP in order to fight the Greens, there are significant risks to that strategy even outside of simply losing the election. Not only will it trigger a revolt from every Labor branch north of Gladstone, and from every marginal seat MP, it has the potential to alienate a lot of Labor members and voters who don’t think the Greens are as bad or worse than the LNP and would be disgusted with such a capitulation. Having fewer enthused volunteers in 2028 would be a real hindrance to their chances of winning back government then.

@Wilson Volunteer morale is an actual thing and if there’s a hint of a “North Queensland Line” then I think there’s a lot of people who’ll just sit the election out. One of the serious problems the ALP has is the lack of involvement for average branch members – all of the decisions about preselections and policy are completely out of their hands.

More importantly you’ll end up with the Labor Party not having any organisational structure north of Noosa, which impacts tremendously on their ability to gain Federal Seats in Queensland.

Fighting smaller enemies and sureendin to big ones is political death loon at the coalition they’re looking to fight in Labor heartland athe expense of real seats

My predictions:
LNP: 62
Labor: 22
Greens: 4
Katter: 3
One Nation: 1
Bolton: 1
LNP to win between 56-58% of the TPP

I suspect LNP gains within Brisbane LGA will be quite limited. At most Aspley, Mansfield and Lytton imo.

That won’t matter though because LNP gains in the regions, plus a few more (Nicklin, Caloundra, Redlands, Redcliffe) will definitely deliver them a majority with a few to spare (just in case for a MASSIVE shock in Moggill and/or Clayfield)

I think Labor will be lucky to have 3 in the regions after this election. (Mulgrave, Gladstone, and maybe Cook despite the margin)

For non-Brisbane SEQ seats, I find Capalaba, Gaven, Macalister, Springwood, Pine Rivers or Pumicestone difficult to read.

For Greens targets, I predict Cooper, McConnel, Miller and Greenslopes will be won off from Labor. Council issue of not taking enough from LNP probably will NOT be an issue in these state seats

good point about South Brisbane. an anti-Greens HTV would make that a hard retain too. It’s pretty tough to predict how many seats the Greens will have in the next parlilament. They could end up with 6 if everything falls into place, or they could end up with none despite 20-30-40% PVs in many Brisbane seats and a double digit primary vote statewide.

@Leon I think Pumicestone will fall to the LNP before Redcliffe does, even though neither of those are within Brisbane. I’d throw Stafford, Ferny Grove and Bulimba into that list as dark horses on election night. They’re seats no-one talks about but the demographics have changed significantly.

Gaven, Caloundra and Nicklin will be mostly a case of tidying up loose ends in the growth areas on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

Springwood and Aspley are difficult seats – they’re hard to shift unless there’s a major local issue and then they swing violently. Mount Ommaney is another one of those odd seats – the demographics scream LNP but it’s been ages since the LNP put any effort into it. It reminds me a lot of Chatsworth, remaining Labor forever until a serious tilt by the LNP was made and then it crumbled.

I think Kurwongbah is just a bridge too far, as are the south-western Brisbane seats. The same goes for Cook and it may be the last outpost for Labor in North Queensland. I think it will be hard for the LNP to hold Ipswich West if the local residents feel that the ALP has been sufficiently punished.

The Greens will take McConnel and potentially lose South Brisbane. Having Sandy Bolton in Noosa basically inoculates the seat from being picked up by The Greens.

I expect One Nation will lose Mirani to the LNP and fail to gain any others.

I don’t think South Brisbane is very at risk for the Greens. The Greens have been consistently very strong in that area in recent years and Labor is not expected to do well at the next election. The Greens shouldn’t need
a favourable LNP HTV to win there like they did in 2020.

Maiwar is a bit more of a risk than South Brisbane given that it could plausibly fall in a strong election for the LNP, but I don’t think it really demographically lines up with other LNP targets and so it probably only falls if the LNP are making significant gains from Labor across Brisbane too.

The Greens should win Cooper and McConnell, especially given Labor’s general troubles, and should be extremely disappointed if they fail to win those. Anything beyond those would be a nice bonus for them – Greenslopes and Miller are at least plausibly within reach, though just how winnable they are will depend on resourcing. The Greens will make a lot of noise about targets beyond those (as always) but there is little real chance anywhere else and they would be wise not to spread themselves too thin.

@Mark Yore

I expected Redcliffe to go before Pumicestone tbh because:
– Effectively a 16-year incumbent retiring (As D’Ath also served on Federal Petrie)
– Ali King’s sophomore surge in Pumicestone
– A mismatch in demographics between the Pumicestone (old) and the LNP candidate (young) there (seemingly NOT a parachute but her background makes her look more suited for Maiwar or something imo)

I hear flooding in the Centenary Suburbs changed the demographics and the house prices there so I am doubtful Mount Ommaney will be that good for LNP. That said, I did see a string swing to LNP in Jamboree at council so I will put that on my “In Doubt” List.

Any knowledge on Macalister?

@leon I think k cook is gone whether to the lnp or kap as a protest vote. Any further loss to the Labor primary vote especially if there is preference discipline between onp, kap and lnp.

Cook consists of areas which are very strong for
Labor except Mareeba

@Leon Yvette is a negative in Redcliffe and underperformed locally even when she was a Federal Member. That’s why I think the swing there this time will be less than the average.

Pumicestone is a weird seat and there’s no way to redistribute it to make any sort of reasonable boundary. In the long term you can only hope that the Bribie Passage closes up so Bribie Island will be connected by land to Caloundra. 🙂 Ariana Doolan is an interesting (young) candidate but then again Wyatt Roy was only 18 when he won Longman and that covered much of the same area. I can see Doolan being feted by some of the older residents as their long lost grand-child much as Wyatt was.

Cooper is a hard call – it’s almost a clone of Maiwar except for the tail that heads out to The Gap. The votes change substantially once you get past Ashgrove and you could argue that the boundaries of both seats could be redone as an inner-urban and outer-urban split, basically moving Mount Cootha from Maiwar into Cooper and Red Hill, Paddington and Milton from Cooper into Maiwar.

Mount Ommaney is still an expensive area – the only below-average area is Darra and that’s gentrifying fairly quickly, much as Oxley has already made the jump. There’s quite a few industrial sites in Darra and Sumner but the land value will push them further out. And since Brisbane has a fascination with water no matter how bad the flooding gets I can’t see the demographics changing a lot. It’s the Brisbane equivalent of Sydney’s “Harbour glimpses”. This area is mostly new money and the flooding is nowhere near as bad as West End or New Farm. Jess Pugh was a good candidate for the ALP and has had consistent swings to her over three elections.

Macalister is best described as the good bits of Beenleigh with Eagleby sitting in the middle. It has strange boundaries because it crosses the freeway and will probably get hacked to pieces in the next redistribution. The LNP has made some interesting choices regarding preselection timing and there’s no candidate yet for Macalister. Across all seats they’re probably a bit ahead of the ALP at the moment though. While I can’t see this seat changing the TPP is only 9.54% so it’s not a lock for the ALP.

I wouldn’t regard anything under 10% as a safe seat. What is going to be interesting is seeing if any more sitting members step down due to health issues/needing to spend more time with the family/an opportunity in the private sector/giving back to the community.

@mick so is traeger formally my Isa as there is a strong labor vote in my Isa but these people deserted labor for the KAP which is why they could do the same in cook. And 2-3 point soff labors primary anyd strong preference discipline could help KAP or lnp

Traeger has a strong KAP vote at a state level because of Bob Katter (overlap with Kennedy federal electorate) and the Katter family name recognition. Cook is an interesting one because there’s not much overlap with Kennedy. Will be interesting to see how the KAP performs there, especially because their candidate has resigned and they haven’t found a new one yet.

I’m more interested to see how they perform in Thuringowa, as their candidate is quite high profile and popular (as the organiser of youth crime victim rallies). I suspect the KAP will get a significant swing to them in that seat. Especially taking from the already declining ONP Thuringowa vote. Mundingburra is a toss-up because the candidate isn’t as well known. And it seems ONP has taken advantage of a lack of a KAP candidate in Townsville, and are starting to campaign with a community candidate in that seat.

@Leon I think the LNP has a reason behind preselecting Ariana Doolan in Pumicestone, especially given her background in environmental advocacy. They’ve given her this seat because she’s a local and it’s a small margin (easy change of her getting in). They will probably give her environment portfolio down the line, to try improve the LNP’s general image to inner city voters.

There is an issue when they pre-select someone younger than even me (and I always thought I was the youngest on this website at 22) Because I feel they only do it to try and win over ”Gen Z”. Well we care about the ambitious policies/ideas. Why do you think my generation was obsessed with Bernie Sanders? Because it is the policies like education that appeal to these people.

Running a young candidate for the sake of running a young candidate who like has not held a significant job where they are held accountable or other public services like, Barrister, Police officer, lawyer, attorney, big business owner, etc. I feel they are less qualified then those candidates that have.

The only people it may win over is all those that went to school with the candidate and the teachers, but everyone else in the electorate? probably not.

I admit I have thought about running someday, but it would be way into my 30’s 40’s when I actually achieve something. I believe representing people in parliament is a huge privilege and honor and the way politicians act these days. even more so. It is not for the faint hearted. And the people of the electorate should come first. I for one, would vote in parliament what I believe my electorate wanted even if I disagreed with the policy because being a self-serving politicians is precisely why people are are angry at government nowadays.

Obviously there was Wyatt Roy in this region, but he apparently won because of his opponent’s gaffe, I personally doubt that, I think getting rid of Rudd cost them Longman in 2010.

@daniel because unlike the ALP liberals 99% of the time select a candidate at a branch member vote. Unlike Labor where you need to be tapped on the shoulder or in with the unions

I think Miles can hang on.

There’s strategy in letting the Greens more or less do their thing in their area. Attacking them heavily in the media but not actually throwing good campaign resources at McConnel and Cooper. I’ve been convinced by others here Moggill is a bridge too far but Clayfield could be interesting yet (and Greens have motive to campaign heavily in both even if they’re not winnable). He should then be able to hold the Brisbane based seats with a suburban focused campaign, win back Ipswich West and maybe even shake up Glass House, Chatsworth (where Greens can juice the anti LNP vote) and Oodgeroo (Stoker is not a good candidate choice).

Of course Labor may very well devote resources to fending off Greens and pretending to be Greener than them to hang on in those areas. Miles as a left faction attack dog would be inclined to do that. Then there’s a chance of Aspley, Mansfield and others going blue.

It’s outside Brisbane where they are most likely to lose. Nicklin is gone and probably Caloundra and Hervey Bay too. Bruce Saunders is a prodigy and can hold onto Maryborough. Labor may be able to work with the narrative that Crisafulli abandoned Townsville to hold the 3 seats there but it will be very tough. Not seeing how they hang on in Mackay either but I said the same thing in 2020. Strelow stops Rockhampton going blue. Not basing it on much but the Cairns area seats seem like they’ll be fine for Labor.

All that to say I don’t think the Miles government is moribund despite the March results.

@John

I think Miles should be able to hold a lot of Labor’s Brisbane-based seats, albeit with reduced margins. Although I think Mansfield will go blue on the fact the LNP selected an Indian community figure (Pinky Singh) to run, and there’s a large Indian community in that area.

Oodgeroo will be safe LNP for a while. I think there would’ve been a decent chance of an independent vote growing if the Toondah Harbour project wasn’t vetoed by Plibersek. But now there’s no chance of an LNP loss there, especially with youth crime a growing concern. I think this will turn Capalaba blue too, especially given how the media is giving Don Brown a hard time over recent crime events.

Glass House won’t be going Labor’s way for a while, especially if they don’t scrap the proposed highway through homes in Elimbah. That’s quite a contentious local issue in that area.

I agree that it’s difficult for Labor to hold on in the regions. Nicklin, Hervey Bay and Bundaberg are probably gone to the LNP. Labor will definitely lose Thuringowa, Mundingburra and Townsville. Rockhampton will be interesting especially with Strelow in the mix. Maryborough and Cairns based seats probably hold for Labor. Especially given the controversies with Yolonde Entsch in Cairns.

I think the election will be very tight, probably an LNP win, but not as much of a landslide as 2012.

@AA a lot of Mansfield suburbs already vote LNP such as Rochedale.

@John Cairns is likely to go to the LNP, but the other Cairns seat, Barron River, is definitely already gone, so are all three Townsville seats. Bundaberg, Hervey Bay and Nickin are gone. With Stretlow in Rockhampton it doesn’t matter much because this isn’t NSW where they have OPV, it’s Queensland. Queensland has FPV. If Labor voters go to Stretlow and preference Labor then it benefits them but not if the LNP gets preferences from Stretlow and of course One Nation. Mackay is likely to be gained too.

i think miles iss toast did you se him at albos press conference yesterday wasnt at all interested in the announcement was tooo bust looking at his phone this guy was put in offfice by the unions to help them out before alp got smoked. hes worse the palaszchuk

There’s no evidence to suggest that picking an Indian Australian candidate will deliver Mansfield to the LNP.

The Indian Australian population in that electorate isn’t that big according to census data, with Indian not making the top 5 ancestries, only 4% of the population being born in India, and only 5.7% and 5.6% with their father and mother respectively being born in India. In fact, in every single one of those categories, Chinese Australians rank higher.

Also, the LNP have run Indian Australian candidates multiple times in the seat of Tarneit in Victoria, an electorate that has more than five times the percentage of Indian-born people that Mansfield does, and it hasn’t even come close to delivering them the seat. It seems like it takes more than just an Indian name to appeal to Indian Australian voters.

I’d say the aspect of Pinky Singh’s background that’s more likely to influence the electorate is that she contested McConnel last election, so that she has probably only moved to Mansfield in the past few years. That might undercut her ability to appeal to voters if they see her as a blow-in from the inner city, rather than a genuine local.

@wilson anything under 10% magin would have t be considered marginal based on the by elction results in what are normally heartland seats including labors safest seat in inala

I sense LNP will, most likely, stumble across the line and get a slim majority. It won’t be an emphatic win with a high 2PP like that of SA Labor in 2022 or NSW Labor in 2023.

I wouldn’t write off Greenslopes, McConnel and Cooper for Labor just yet. One of them will likely flip but not all three. There are a few unknowns. What are the odds that left-wing voters or local/federal Greens voters will vote Labor to avoid handing the LNP a majority? How likely will the LNP preference the Greens ahead of Labor?

Labor does have the option to attack the Greens. This would help Labor sandbag regional seats. This is because the Greens are very unpopular to regional voters, even in Labor-held seats, who see them as ideologically opposed to them. It would be even easier for Labor if the LNP preference the Greens and they could link the two parties together.

I might have a different prediction in 6 months.

Barring a Latham-style handshake incident or some other major gaffe from the LNP I don’t see anything other than a majority LNP government in Queensland unfortunately.

Labor’s bleeding to the LNP in the regions and Greens in the metro area. It’s almost as if they’ve lost the plot and can’t get anything right. Do job investments in the regions and invest there heavily and you lose the inner-Green votes, appease the latter and you offend the regional folks who’d direct their votes to LNP and ON. It’s almost as if metro Brisbane and everywhere outside of it are on the polar opposite ends of the political spectrum in that state. Of course that’s an observation from an interstate commenter like me but I’m sure locals would know better.

I’m not trying to sound like a unabashed Labor supporter but they’ll need all the help they can to sandbag their metro seats as well as those in Ipswich and Logan. Forget about hunting seats, they’ll be lucky if they can keep the likes of Gladstone, Mulgrave, Cook, Pumicestone, Mackay after this election. Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Mundingburra, Thuringowa and Townsville are virtually all gone, Gaven possibly too given it’s on the GC. They need to save the likes of Greenslopes, Cooper, McConnel from the Greens if they want to even have a chance of being a credible opposition. Miles won’t last the distance and Murrumba will probably see a by-election soon after which could be a toss up.

Unless if in some fantasy dream Labor could concoct a minority or a coalition with the Greens who looks like they’ll have much to gain this time, October 2024 is already shooting ducks in a barrel for Cristafulli and co.

Tommo9, how does investing in the regions lose voters to the Greens in the city? I don’t understand how that equation works.

@Wilson they would need to be more centrist in the regions whereas the inner-city will want them to be progressive.

Nether Portal, that might be true for social policy, but how does it relate to investment?

@Nether Portal @Wilson I was referring more generally to jobs and a bit of social policy. A lot of regional QLD are like coal heartland and want jobs and coalmines opened and the industry to continue, but if Labor appeases to them they’ll lose the inner-city audience who’s shown they’re not hesitant in voting Greens to send a message. On the other hand if Labor leans to the Greens’ environmental policies then they stand to lose the regions to LNP, KAP, ON etc.

Also things like youth crime, if Labor takes a centre-left approach and work with Greens you’d have people in Cairns, Townsville, Ipswich, GC coming out with baseball bats. But lean into the overhype about it in the regions like how the LNP and Courier Mail is portraying it and the Greens will come out swinging with ‘draconian’, ‘breach of basic human rights’ etc.

I’ve never seen such a polarising divide in state politics in a while. Whatever Labor does, they just can’t win!

@Tommo9 I think if Labor are happy to govern in minority with Greens support, the latter path is the obvious strategic choice and in my view only path to retain government. Greens will do better in their target areas but in most seats those votes go back to Labor as preferences. Losing a seat to a minor party that will likely give you confidence and supply is not the same as losing it to the opposition.

The real question is whether Labor are going to be willing to pursue that strategy or are they willing to sacrifice government to give Mark Bailey and Grace Grace 4 more years in their seats.

@ John
It would better for Labor to go into the Opposition than sign a deal with the Greens in a state like QLD where there a lot of white working class voters and there is decentralized population so if they loose seats outside SEQ, they can be in permanent opposition and may only end up winning Inala, Woodridge, Algester, Bundamba, Waterford, Sandgate and Nudgee (maybe not even the last 2)