Northern Territory 2024

Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Northern Territory election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election.

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Table of contents:

  1. Electorate profiles
  2. Redistribution
  3. Contact

Electorate profiles

Seat profiles have been produced all 25 Legislative Assembly electorates. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.

You can also use this map to find an electorate and view the seat guide.

Redistribution

A redistribution of electoral boundaries is conducted before every election.

The 2023 redistribution took longer than planned. A second draft needed to be conducted after a significant amount of growth in enrolment numbers in remote electorates. The process then needed to be restarted due to an error in officially announcing the original process.

No seats were abolished, created or renamed in this redistribution.

There were no significant shifts in electorates between regions – the number of seats in the Darwin-Palmerston area remained the same, and there was no changes to the border between urban and rural regions despite a significant imbalance in enrolment numbers.

The most significant shift was in the increasing population in the Palmerston area. Spillett was redrawn from a seat that was partly based in Palmerston into an entirely Palmerston-based seat, meaning that this city now includes four whole electorates.

There should be a word of caution about how redistribution margins are calculated.

There are very few local polling places used in the Northern Territory. Many seats only have one booth, and some don’t have a single booth. It is rare that a seat has two or three booths. Quite a few electorates have large shares of the vote cast via mobile polling teams, and we don’t have precise data on where those votes were cast. This makes it difficult to precisely determine which voters come from a particular part of an electorate when transferring a share of an electorate to a neighbouring seat.

In addition, the last election was conducted in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of the vote was cast via pre-poll, which also makes it hard to geolocate those voters.

So while I have estimated how margins have changed, it is more difficult to be precise than in other elections.

You can see a summary of the changes at this blog post, and the below map shows the changes between 2020 and 2024.

Contact

If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.

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    4 COMMENTS

    1. @John the betting markets had the CLP in front of Labor for the first time about a week ago. And with two polls released now, both showing the CLP leading Labor with roughly 55% TPP and 40% of the primary vote it looks like the CLP are set to win the NT election. Note that the Territory is small population-wise (it’s Australia’s least populous state or territory) so opinion polling is typically scarce unfortunately. I hope someone does a preferred Chief Minister poll and a satisfaction rating poll for Eva Lawler and Lia Finocchiaro.

    2. the following seat should be safe for Labor
      Gwoja, Fannie Bay, Sanderson, Karama, Johnston, Nightcliffe, Wanguri and Casuarina. the rest could potentially be lost

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