Burleigh – Queensland 2024

LNP 1.2%

Incumbent MP
Michael Hart, since 2012.

Geography
Gold Coast. Burleigh covers the southern Gold Coast suburbs of Palm Beach, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Varsity Lakes and Miami.

History
The seat of Burleigh was created for the 1992 election. It was held by the National Party until 2001, and then by Labor from 2001 to 2012.

Judy Gamin won the seat for the National Party in 1992. She had first been elected to the seat of South Coast at a 1988 by-election following the retirement of former National Party minister Russ Hinze.

South Coast was abolished in 1992 and replaced by Burleigh, and Gamin won the new seat. She was re-elected in 1995 and 1998 before losing to the ALP’s Christine Smith at the landslide 2001 election.

Christine Smith was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

Smith was defeated by LNP candidate Michael Hart in 2012. Hart has been re-elected three times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Michael Hart is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Burleigh is a very marginal LNP seat.

2020 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Hart Liberal National 11,743 39.7 -10.0
Wayne Bartholomew Labor 10,609 35.9 +1.7
Rachel Mebberson Greens 2,753 9.3 -6.8
Georgie Batty One Nation 2,114 7.1 +7.2
Ingrid Weber Legalise Cannabis 1,085 3.7 +3.7
Scott Wallace Animal Justice 948 3.2 +3.2
Carlo Filingeri United Australia 321 1.1 +1.1
Informal 1,297 4.2

2020 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Hart Liberal National 15,143 51.2 -3.7
Wayne Bartholomew Labor 14,430 48.8 +3.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Burleigh have been divided into three areas: central, south-east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote on election day in all three areas, ranging from 51.4% in the centre to 54.2% in the west. Yet the LNP won thanks to polling 52.4% in the pre-poll and other votes, which made up 75% of the total vote.

Voter group GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 12.1 47.4 2,543 8.6
Central 12.8 48.6 2,450 8.3
West 8.7 45.8 2,067 7.0
Pre-poll 8.8 52.4 14,686 49.7
Other votes 8.4 52.4 7,827 26.5

Election results in Burleigh at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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21 COMMENTS

  1. The map looks really weird. Out of curiosity Ben, How many seats do you estimate Labor won on the election day vote in 2020?

    All seats less than 3%?

  2. Yeah it’s an interesting one.

    No need for estimate, I can say exactly. It’s 58 Labor, 28 LNP, 3 KAP, 2 GRN, 1 IND, 1 ON. That’s a change of 6 seats to Labor from LNP.

  3. The actual results however:

    Seats:
    ALP: 52 (+4)
    LNP: 34 (-5/-4; note: Jason Costigan defected from the LNP but lost his seat of Whitsunday to the LNP)
    KAP: 3 (+0)
    GRN: 2 (+1)
    ONP: 1 (+0)
    IND: 1 (+0)
    NQF: 0 (+0/-1; note: Jason Costigan defected from the LNP but lost his seat of Whitsunday to the LNP)

    Primary vote:
    ALP: 39.6% (+4.1)
    LNP: 35.9% (+2.2)
    KAP: 2.5% (+0.2)
    GRN: 9.5% (-0.5)
    ONP: 7.1% (-6.6)
    NQF: 0.2% (+0.2)

    TPP:
    ALP: 53.2% (+1.9)
    LNP: 46.8% (-1.9)

  4. The map isn’t missing any booths. “Fradgley Hall” was the main pre-poll booth in 2020 so doesn’t belong on the election day booth map. If you look at the table above the map, you can see that Labor won a majority of the 2PP in all three sub-areas, but the volume of pre-poll votes is much more. That other link has included the pre-poll booths on the map but I don’t think that makes sense. The election day booth map gives a sense of relative geographic trends, and pre-poll booths draw from all over the seat.

  5. Its been reported in the Australian Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster is expected to be the LNP’s candidate for Burleigh, with sources tipping current Mp Michael Hart to retire.

  6. LNP Mp for Burleigh Michael Hart has officially announced he won’t be recontesting the next election.

  7. @Am it will certainly pull a decently high Greens first-preference vote as far as Gold Coast divisions are concerned. Potentially, one of their highest outside of Brisbane even. However, it is not at all an Easy Greens gain. If the tide does not go out on Labor, contrary to what some are speculating now, it will be a close classic 2CP race between LNP and Labor. Neighbouring Currumbin will be much the same. Mermaid Beach is also likely to follow the trend of Burleigh and Currumbin.

  8. @Am, I think the Greens will be happy with anything above 12% here. They certainly won’t win or even come close.

  9. In hindsight, Labor missed their chance in 2020. They held it before the Campbell Newman landslide and had a solid candidate but were weak on prepolls and postals.

    In 2020, I actually thought that the Gold Coast seats would swing to the LNP. I wrote in the Currumbin thread that I probably watched too much media reporting about how the hard border during Covid would hurt Labor as it shut down the tourism industry and made it difficult for those who wanted to cross the border for work or see family.

  10. I dont know the Gold Coast that well so it will be great if someone can assist here. Is it possible that as Ocean Front land in SEQ becomes more scarce with population growth the remaining areas such as Burleigh are becoming more desirable and better for LNP. During the Beattie/Bligh years Labor held quite a few seats in the Gold Coast now they only hold one, Gaven which does not have any waterfront.

  11. @Nimalan the Gold Coast has always been conservative.

    Just for clarification: do you mean that if voters from, say, Surfers Paradise move to Burleigh Heads, would it benefit the LNP? I guess it might benefit the LNP but I don’t know how much difference it would make. Surfers Paradise as an electoral district is very much a blue-ribbon seat but the suburb of Surfers Paradise itself is actually only like 58% LNP (though nearby Main Beach is over 70% LNP).

    The Gold Coast is affluent and it has large numbers of people who used to live in other cities (this is one of the reasons why the Gold Coast is known as a graveyard for sports teams, e.g Gold Coast United, the soccer club that was once owned by Clive Palmer, went broke and no longer plays in the A-League). It is very popular for tourists as I’m sure you know.

    The Gold Coast also has a large ethnic population for a non-capital city. It notably has large Brazilian, Chinese and Japanese communities, and the most common languages other than English spoken at home on the Gold Coast are Chinese, Japanese, Portuguese and Spanish. Like other parts of South East Queensland, it also has a large New Zealander population, including a large Māori community (the Gold Coast actually has more Māori people than Aboriginal people).

  12. @ NP
    Agree that Gold Coast has been conservative. During Beattie/Bligh years the ALP held a few seats in Gold Coast including waterfront ones.
    What i was trying to explain is that as SEQ grows the demographic that 20 years ago may have afforded to purchase a property in Surfers Paradise may now only afford to buy in Mermaid Beach and those who wanted to live in Mermaid Beach and priced out may now purchase in Palm Beach in the Burleigh electorate. So in essence affluence maybe moving South especially as Ocean front land is limited in SEQ. That is a phenomenon we see in other cities and cities grow and people and affluence are pushed outwards. I wonder if that maybe happening in the Gold Coast and making it weaker for Labor compared when Beattie/Bligh were in power.

  13. IIRC there was speculation that the Gold Coast would be most resentful of travel restrictions. Maybe that’s why the COVID vote that got Labor over the line in e.g. Hervey Bay wasn’t enough here.

    I’m still a bit perplexed as to why the Gold Coast has a reputation of lots of young socially progressive (as much as a “party” kind of city implies) renters living there but the Greens haven’t been able to make a meaningful push. Guess the retiree and white shoe brigade vote is too strong. IIRC Greens sat the council elections out and the local branch has been focused on crossing the border to firm up Mandy Nolan in Richmond. McPherson is actually one of the Greens better LNP held federal prospects looking at 3CP but similar to Fairfax and Fisher, there will be quite a challenge to bring down the LNP vote even if Greens can take 2nd place.

    In the state election, if the tide is going out on Labor, will be good to test if Greens can take 2nd place in Burleigh (or Mermaid Beach).

  14. I think Gold Coast is a hotbed for Centre-Right poltics as every voting booth on the Gold Coast voted No on The Voice despite the large size for a regional city but then support for SSM is around or just a bit above the national average. I think a lot are of wealthy old money retirees on the coast and Lower Middle-Middle Class Battlers inland and much less in proportion on younger white collar professionals.

  15. This one I thought Labor would win in 2020. LNP were so lucky to hold on. I think Hart retiring this time is the right move, as Vorster’s profile will be enough for them to hold onto the seat – coupled with the swing to the LNP, this time.

    Is Hermann an outside chance for a portfolio?

  16. The Greens have announced their Burleigh candidate as Hunter Grove-McGrath, getting in before the ALP (Currumbin Candidate also announced)

  17. Don’t think anyone in here has made note of the fact yet that the Legalise Cannabis bloke standing for this division is the star and creator behind the television series Wilfred. Not the first time Burleigh has had a celebrity candidate.

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