LNP 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Michael Hart, since 2012.
Geography
Gold Coast. Burleigh covers the southern Gold Coast suburbs of Palm Beach, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Varsity Lakes and Miami.
History
The seat of Burleigh was created for the 1992 election. It was held by the National Party until 2001, and then by Labor from 2001 to 2012.
Judy Gamin won the seat for the National Party in 1992. She had first been elected to the seat of South Coast at a 1988 by-election following the retirement of former National Party minister Russ Hinze.
South Coast was abolished in 1992 and replaced by Burleigh, and Gamin won the new seat. She was re-elected in 1995 and 1998 before losing to the ALP’s Christine Smith at the landslide 2001 election.
Christine Smith was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
Smith was defeated by LNP candidate Michael Hart in 2012. Hart has been re-elected three times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Michael Hart is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Burleigh is a very marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Hart | Liberal National | 11,743 | 39.7 | -10.0 |
| Wayne Bartholomew | Labor | 10,609 | 35.9 | +1.7 |
| Rachel Mebberson | Greens | 2,753 | 9.3 | -6.8 |
| Georgie Batty | One Nation | 2,114 | 7.1 | +7.2 |
| Ingrid Weber | Legalise Cannabis | 1,085 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Scott Wallace | Animal Justice | 948 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Carlo Filingeri | United Australia | 321 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,297 | 4.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Hart | Liberal National | 15,143 | 51.2 | -3.7 |
| Wayne Bartholomew | Labor | 14,430 | 48.8 | +3.7 |
Booths in Burleigh have been divided into three areas: central, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote on election day in all three areas, ranging from 51.4% in the centre to 54.2% in the west. Yet the LNP won thanks to polling 52.4% in the pre-poll and other votes, which made up 75% of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 12.1 | 47.4 | 2,543 | 8.6 |
| Central | 12.8 | 48.6 | 2,450 | 8.3 |
| West | 8.7 | 45.8 | 2,067 | 7.0 |
| Pre-poll | 8.8 | 52.4 | 14,686 | 49.7 |
| Other votes | 8.4 | 52.4 | 7,827 | 26.5 |
Election results in Burleigh at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
The map looks really weird. Out of curiosity Ben, How many seats do you estimate Labor won on the election day vote in 2020?
All seats less than 3%?
Yeah it’s an interesting one.
No need for estimate, I can say exactly. It’s 58 Labor, 28 LNP, 3 KAP, 2 GRN, 1 IND, 1 ON. That’s a change of 6 seats to Labor from LNP.
The actual results however:
Seats:
ALP: 52 (+4)
LNP: 34 (-5/-4; note: Jason Costigan defected from the LNP but lost his seat of Whitsunday to the LNP)
KAP: 3 (+0)
GRN: 2 (+1)
ONP: 1 (+0)
IND: 1 (+0)
NQF: 0 (+0/-1; note: Jason Costigan defected from the LNP but lost his seat of Whitsunday to the LNP)
Primary vote:
ALP: 39.6% (+4.1)
LNP: 35.9% (+2.2)
KAP: 2.5% (+0.2)
GRN: 9.5% (-0.5)
ONP: 7.1% (-6.6)
NQF: 0.2% (+0.2)
TPP:
ALP: 53.2% (+1.9)
LNP: 46.8% (-1.9)
The booth map for TPP here seems to suggest a Labor victory, or is missing some key-booths.
The guide below displays the Fradgley Hall Community Centre polling place that seems to be missing from this guide. This is where LNP largely inched in front of Labor 4,812 to 4,177.
https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/burleigh
The map isn’t missing any booths. “Fradgley Hall” was the main pre-poll booth in 2020 so doesn’t belong on the election day booth map. If you look at the table above the map, you can see that Labor won a majority of the 2PP in all three sub-areas, but the volume of pre-poll votes is much more. That other link has included the pre-poll booths on the map but I don’t think that makes sense. The election day booth map gives a sense of relative geographic trends, and pre-poll booths draw from all over the seat.
Its been reported in the Australian Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster is expected to be the LNP’s candidate for Burleigh, with sources tipping current Mp Michael Hart to retire.
LNP Mp for Burleigh Michael Hart has officially announced he won’t be recontesting the next election.
Correct about Vorster, very much been groomed for years by the McGrath faction.