Queensland 2024

The issue in Victoria is that the working class seats in Victoria are very ethnic the only real pick up for the Liberals being anti-treaty is Hastings which part of it is white working class so while they may pick that up they stand to loose a bunch of affluent seats to the Teals or Berwick there there is a rapidly growing South Asian community in the Southern part of the electorate. It is very different to QLD which is a decentralized seat with much more white working class voters.

The number of Registered Parties for the upcoming QLD 2024 State Election has decreased with the Civil Liberties & Motorists Party [Motorists] having their registration cancelled on 13th October 2023. This now leaves 8 parties currently registered for the 2024 election. They are:
-ALP, LNP, KAP, GRN, ONP, AJP, IMOP, LCQ (Legalise Cannibis). The first 5 parties have current representation in the house.
Motorists join SFF Qld (cancelled Dec ’22) with NQF and UAP as being de-registered during the current (57th) Parliament of QLD. For the record, Motorists stood 16 candidates at the last election with the SFF 3, NQF 5 and UAP 54 respectively.

2020 was a high with 12 parties registered and running, with 2017 at 6, and 2015 at 7, compared to the current 8.

Upon researching candidates announced so far, I’ve come across the ‘Democractic Party of Queensland’. Never heard of them before. Their website is mostly devoid of information with a few broad generic policy ideas currently listed. Under the ‘About’ section is mentioned the following:

“The Democratic Party of Queensland (DPQ) is a political party in Queensland with a highly talented team, resources and capabilities to competitively contest all 93 electoral seats in the 2024 Queensland state election. The party is applying for inclusion in the Electoral Commission of Queensland register of political parties.”

Until they actually get registered with ECQ, I won’t take it seriously but could fill the small hole the UAP has left vote-wise. Make of it what you will, but things are slowly picking up a pace election wise.

–Party Watch Update–
Also, I think the LNP selecting candidates this far ahead has forced other right-wing parties hand to start their processes earlier. KAP has publicly called for candidates and announced 3 so far (Cook, Mundingburra, Thuringowa) and ONP currently publicly calling for candidates. Cannot see anything for GRN (more focus on council 2024 election) nor AJP or IMOP or LCQ (most information still pertains to 2022 Fed Election, 2023 NSW or previous QLD elections respectively). Interesting to note the AJP was calling for members for meet the 500 threshold back in June.

I recall an article recently in which Palaszczuk apparently gave Labor party MPs until the end of October to announce whether they would be contesting next year’s election or retiring. I wonder if they will all hold to that now the deadline is passed? Asuming the LNP continues to gain momentum, I think she will face unexpected departures and not have much control over it.

On the other hand I think some of the LNP members feel it is safer to retire this election and so we will see more of those announcements over the next year or so than with Labor. Haven’t seen any indication of it but you’d think Fiona Simpson is about ready to call it quits.

I hadn’t heard of DPQ, I wonder if they’re a branding of a party I do recognise.

Poking around their website reveals some interesting things. Looks like they’ve got some sublet office space in the CBD (ServCorp). That suggests that a bit of money is backing them. Constitution dates back to early 2022. No authorisation tags on their website, which is fair. No details of any party officers yet (e.g. President).

Looks like they want to have a 1:1 discussion over email before taking membership applications at this stage. They’ll want to do something a little less time intensive in going for 500 (and you usually want closer to 700 on the books to filter down to 550, to account for people who’ve recently moved and such).

From what I’ve heard ECQ rego takes a long time. Still, they have almost a year.

Oh, and ABN lookup points to an unincorporated association dating back to late 2020, with postcode 4551 (southern Sunshine Coast).

So yeah, someone’s put in the long term groundwork to have all the organisational side of a party, but then is doing … absolutely no campaigning yet.

According to The Australian, Labor are targeting 13 seats they don’t currently hold: Burleigh, Chatsworth, Clayfield, Coomera, Currumbin, Everton, Glass House, Mermaid Beach, Moggill, Ninderry, Oodgeroo, Theodore and Whitsunday.

I think this will be a tall order without the Covid management advantage they had at the last election.

@ Wilson Whitsunday being listed as the token regional seat makes sense given its low margin and the lack of competitive seats elsewhere, but I don’t think they have any chance of winning it.

At this rate, I don’t think Labor will gain any seats next year. I’m expecting all seats changing hands to be Labor -> LNP and Labor -> Greens. Maybe a surprise Independent, Katter or even One Nation gain somewhere as well.

Cyclone Jasper is D-day for Labor if they screw up the management they’re finished

There’s an unusually large batch of incoming MPs from 2015 and many may call it quits at the next election, after three terms. Labor didn’t have this problem in 2017 as it was only their first term. Given the imminent change of government, many Labor MPs may choose to retire instead of facing an election. This will make things trickier for Labor because of the retiring MPs.

John, Cyclone Jasper isn’t even that bad, A Category 2 is nothing. If you want a severe cyclone look at Cyclones Yasi, Debbie and Ilsa, all were Category 4 or 5.

Disasters also do not usually affect the election. I’ll remind you Anna Bligh got boosts from Cyclone Yasi and the Floods. yet that was short lived. the LNP re-took a strong lead after installing Newman as leader.

good odds of the libs getting th nt and qld next year

@daniel t yes but if they screw it up it wil be a death sentence

@Wilson Given that the previous ALP candidate for Whitsunday has just taken up a position as Principal of Ironside State School in Brisbane it’s difficult to work out who will be the candidate. The branch structure is almost non-existent because ALP HQ jettisoned the first candidate last time and a large chunk of branch members walked as well and they haven’t rejoined – some of them joined KAP.

Mansfield has a good LNP candidate in Pinky Singh and former BCC Councillor Fiona Hammond stood down to run for the LNP in the solid ALP seat of Stafford.

I can’t see the ALP holding any seats in regional Queensland, let alone picking any up.

PS One of the problems in Queensland is that Council and State elections are on every four years – in the same year. So every twelve years you also have a Federal election rock up as well.

Fixed term’s doesn’t stop 3/4 of parliament to vote to dissolve or the government deliberately votes itself down to force an election if there is a good reason. I wouldn’t rule out a 2031 state election so it doesn’t fall near the olympics in 2032. Perhaps the opposition and government of the day can agree to force an election together for that reason because there may be little appetite to go to the polls just after the olympics ended. And especially considering there is likely to be a federal election just before the Olympics. There will be so much fatigue that year. I suspect 2031 election.

I can’t see the ALP holding any seats in regional Queensland, let alone picking any up.

@Mark Yore

Your prediction is garbage, and not even realistic. While Labor may not gain any regional seats they certainly will retain regional seats. Even in the 2012 state election they held on to regional seats in Queensland (Mackay, Mulgrave). And that election was when Labor faced a annihilation which the current polls are not showing Labor facing anything like that. I think your comment is a case of good old LNP cheerleading.

I suspect Labor will retain Brisbane seats better than they did in 2012, but do worse than 2012 in the regions.
I think Mulgrave and Gladstone will stay with Labor but I think that is the best they can hope for.
I must note that Mackay and Rockhampton are both way down the pendulum now (relative to pre-2012).

I always preference Labor over Liberals/Nationals btw, albeit I live in another state.

I suspect Labor will retain Brisbane seats better than they did in 2012, but do worse than 2012 in the regions.

@Leon

Where’s the polling or evidence to back it up? The latest statewide polling with the LNP leading only by 51 – 49 makes your prediction look very questionable that Labor will do worse in the regions then 2012.

Not sure how great a candidate Pinky Singh is, if it’s the same one who had a 5 point swing against her in 2020. Very unlikely Fiona Hammond wins Stafford either

Labor will still hold quite a few seats in regional QLD after the election as there is really no indication of even a comfortable LNP win so far let alone a large one… I believe they will ultimately form government, whether minority or majority, but I currently don’t see seats such as Cook, Mulgrave, Mackay, Rockhampton and Maryborough falling to them.

I’ve speculated on both Rockhampton and Mackay in their respective threads in the past but as of right now I’d still say they will stick with Labor. I spend much of my time in Rockhampton in particular and I don’t get the sense that this will be the year they finally turn their backs on the ALP. Keppel on the other hand, which contains nearby Yeppoon, I would consider vital to the LNP forming government.

@ Leon
I agree that Mackay and Rockhamption are now down the pendulum compared to pre-2012. However, we need to remember that One Nation is polling much better now than between 2004-2009 and that has impacted the TPP. The LNP did not really poll any better on primaries in 2020 than they did in 2009 in these seats so it is One Nation that has driven the improved TPP. There has not been signficant demographic change in these industrial change so a LNP win in these seats is reliant on a good ONP showing and a strong preference flow.
@PN, i am not prepared to make a prediction about how the regions will be for Labor. However, i have heard much commentary on this site that the LNP will do much better outside SEQ. I think much of this is based on the realignment theory that white working class voters will move towards the LNP while more affluent voters in places like Clayfield & Mogill will move towards Labor/Greens. It is also based on Federal results. I am not sure if this will necessarily be replicated at a state level.

*in these industrial regional seats.

@laine thres onloy about 3 regional seata they are guarnateed to hold in my opinion

Political Nightwatchman, a Redbridge poll covering August and September last year shows the following 2PP polling by region:

SEQ 53-47 to LNP
CQ 63-37 to LNP
NQ 55-47 to LNP

Of course, this hides a lot of complexity within those areas. In the South East, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Scenic Rim are all solidly LNP voting areas and can be expected to be dragging the LNP 2PP upwards, meaning Labor probably has decent numbers in Brisbane and Ipswich to keep things relatively close. Central Queensland might be poised for big swings to the LNP. The North seems less bad for Labor than I would have expected, and perhaps they’ll hold on to Cook even if they lose seats in Townsville and Cairns.

Mark Yore, what makes Pinky Singh a good candidate? She ran in McConnel last time and got a swing against her as Furtive Lawngnome pointed out. Having presumably moved to Mansfield between the last election and now, she can’t really claim she has deep roots in the area. That may not matter to all voters, but it does matter to some.

QLD Political Party Watch [2024 Update]

Well it snuck past me but another party has been de-registered (self-initiated). The HEART Party (IMOP) registration was cancelled last week. This means we’ve now lost UAP, NQF, SFF, CLM and now HEART (IMOP) since last election. Currently leaves 7 parties registered for the 2024 Election. As for prospective party DPQ, nothing on that front and time is running out for any others to get registered (such as the Progressives with their leader running in the upcoming Inala By-Election as an independent).

The Worst possible outcome for Labor would be a loss of 9 seats to the LNP (Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 0.01
Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Redlands & Mundingburra) I don’t see the Oppostion winning anymore in Brisbane as it’s essentially a Red Wall with a Green belt & could possibly lose their 4 remaining seats in the Capital (Chatsworth, Clayfield, Everton & Moggill).

Caleb, I think out of the four BCC based seats you mentioned – only Clayfield is at risk due to some of its suburbs (Wooloowin and Lutwyche) having a high-density environment that favours the Greens. The other three are located in more traditional suburban territory and also cover fairly affluent areas, so I don’t really see Labor or the Greens being competitive in those seats.

For other BCC based seats – I think Aspley, Mansfield and Mt Ommaney are all potential targets for the LNP as they are the most marginal and also overlap with the strongest LNP held wards at the council level.

The Brisbane City Council election will serve as a litmus test for Brisbane seats in October

Yeah agree Caleb, if the lnp suffer huge swings in the wards that overlap with state seats they hold or want to target as gains, then it would be a bad sign and be indicative they are struggling.

I’m not sure I agree, because people in Brisbane routinely vote differently between state and council elections, and the incumbent governing party is different in each election. A voting trend against the LNP council doesn’t rule out a voting trend against the Labor state government.

Not necessarily yes because they then vote differently in the federal seats as well

In an interview with 6 News yesterday David Crisafulli claimed that Labor has “rigged” the Queensland electoral system by introducing FPV, which is pretty funny given that he happens to be opposition leader in the one state where the Libs and Nats are formally unified.

Obviously the back and forth between OPV and FPV in Queensland over the years had been done for the incumbent party’s gain but you really have no excuses now…

We don’t want to hear idiotic claims of “rigging” like this. Please don’t try to import the American political climate to this country.

That aside, the closer the election gets the more I’ve started to wonder if Labor will manage to hold on in QLD. Steven Miles seems to have recovered Labor’s favourability somewhat and the LNP is largely recycling the same talking points that fell flat in 2020.

Better keep their fingers crossed and pray they manage to sneak into a slim majority solely off the back of regional QLD.

He is pulling Trump tactics and it will not work. I thought the referendum settled it. He is not democratic and he is positioning himself as a neo-nazi by reversing FPV which the people voted for in 2016 along with 4 year terms.

There has not been a referendum on the preferential voting system in Queensland.

Interestingly there was a federal referendum in 1988 regarding moving the electoral cycle into a Maximum four-year term for both houses but had failed with 67% No. Not sure if it was intended to be fixed. I wonder if there was a referendum would have passed today given:
– Queensland 2016 Year Fixed Term Referendum had passed
– Malcolm Turnbull’s 2016 Double Dissolution might have made voters think the election cycle caused instability
– Every State (except Tasmania) and Territory has adopted a four-year fixed term since then

@marh the difference is the states can do it by passign a law whereas the federal govt requires a referendum

David Crisafulli comments that Labor has ‘rigged’ the electoral system is quite hypocritical. If you actually know the backstory to compulsory preferential voting got reintroduced. The LNP despite all the rhetoric of believing in ‘small government’ and ‘limited government’. Introduced a motion in parliament increasing the Queensland parliament from 89 seats to 93 seats. This was done to solely benefit them electorally to stop another redistribution- which would of merged LNP regional/rural seats that couldn’t meet the quota.

After the motion was going to go through with the support of the crossbench. Labor state MP Stirling Hinchliffe proposed a motion amendment to reintroduce compulsory preferential voting. This had support of the crossbench and stunned the LNP. The LNP had been so outmaneuvered by there own trickery that it cost Lawrence Springborg his leadership.

LNP have whinged in the past about the voting system. They complained after the 2009 election, that the vote they received wasn’t proportional to the seats they got in parliament. Of course they didn’t want to address the flaw of having a National rural leader such as Springborg. Who didn’t make the necessary inroads in to Brisbane that they needed to, to win.

I apologise about my inaccurate statement about the FPV being at a referendum. I thought it was, I must have been thinking of something else because Mandela effect hit me and I thought there were 2 questions at the March 2016 referendum.

But either way. Why can’t Miles and Crisafulli agree to hash it out in a referendum? It solves this tug of war.

But either way. Why can’t Miles and Crisafulli agree to hash it out in a referendum? It solves this tug of war.

@Daniel T

No because its a waste of tax payers money when it can be done through the parliament. Terrible idea. Also the public doesn’t really care about this issue. They have had compulsory preferential voting for the last two state elections. And having compulsory preferential voting matches with the federal voting system. Which stops confusion leading to a higher informal vote. LNP won’t have a hope in hell in introducing Optional preferential voting if they have a minority government which is their likely option of getting into government. The crossbench including the independents and the minor parties won’t want a bar of it. Because they rely so heavily on preferences themselves which they benefit from compulsory preferential voting.

Crisafulli’s blustering on this issue is very obviously hypocritical and cynical, as is every Coalition MP, as is every Labor MP (just ask them to try to justify the changes to Melbourne councils, for example). In this case he’s a stopped clock that happened to tell the correct time for once. Voters should have a right to express their voting preferences such as they are, as they deem fit. If democracy is the principle you’re defending, as opposed to political pragmatics and how they just happen to break for your favourite party, then that much should be uncontroversial.

There’s nothing stopping the LNP from winning a majority government in 2024 even if they don’t have a majority in Brisbane. They need 13 seats for a bare majority and I think they will win at least 13 seats from Labor.

Queensland has a bunch of marginal seats on both sides. In ascending order of margins, Labor has 13 marginal seats: Bundaberg, Nicklin (Sunshine Coast), Hervey Bay, Caloundra (Sunshine Coast), Barron River (Cairns), Townsville, Thuringowa (Townsville), Redlands (Brisbane), Mundingburra (Townsville), Aspley (Brisbane), Pumicestone (Brisbane), Cairns and Keppel (Central Queensland). The LNP has 15: Currumbin (Gold Coast), Coomera (Gold Coast), Burleigh (Gold Coast), Chatsworth (Brisbane), Glass House (Sunshine Coast), Clayfield (Brisbane), Everton (Brisbane), Whitsunday (Central Queensland), Theodore (Gold Coast), Moggill (Brisbane), Ninderry (Sunshine Coast), Mermaid Beach (Gold Coast), Oodgeroo (Brisbane), Buderim (Sunshine Coast) and Southport (Gold Coast).

@NP they would be all but guaranteed the support of KAP and ONP in the event of minority anyway.

John, the LNP might be favoured to get the support of KAP and One Nation on confidence and supply, but I really doubt either minor party would support the LNP in the chamber on a bill to reintroduce OPV. It’d be like turkeys voting for Christmas. Particularly for Stephen Andrew of One Nation, because he has never topped the primary vote in his electorate, so he is reliant on strong Liberal preferences to keep his seat.

@wilson thats a completely difeernt thread. and personally i support FPV as it means the majority of voters get their prefered candidate. if the LNP were still 2 parties they would support FPV.

There’s still 229 days until 26 October, yet the LNP has already endorsed candidates in about half of the seats they don’t already hold.

So far the LNP has endorsed candidates in these seats: Aspley, Barron River, Bundaberg, Cairns, Caloundra, Ferny Grove, Hervey Bay, Keppel, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mundingburra, Noosa, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Redlands, Rockhampton, Stafford, Thuringowa and Townsville. They’ve also endorsed replacements for the sitting LNP MPs in Burleigh, Gregory and Oodgeroo.

Given that three only LNP MPs have indicated they won’t contest their seats in 2024 (and candidates have been preselected in all of those three seats), the LNP already have candidates in 54 of the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly, which is 58.06% of the seats in Parliament. In contrast, Labor hasn’t fielded any candidates for non-Labor seats yet, and the Greens haven’t endorsed any candidates in non-Greens seats either. Apart from incumbents, One Nation has announced their candidate for the Labor-held seat of Keppel, Katter’s Australian Party has announced their candidates for the Labor-held seats of Cook, Mundingburra and Thuringowa, and two unrelated independents have announced they will contest the election, one in Algester and one in Rockhampton.

I would imagine that Labor and the Greens don’t want to distract from their Brisbane council campaigns. I expect a raft of announcements sometime shortly after this weekend.

Latest state Newspoll:

Primary votes:
LNP: 42.0% (+6.1%)
Labor: 30.0% (–9.6%)
Greens: 13.5% (+3.5%)
One Nation: 8.0% (+0.9%)

TPP:
LNP: 54.0% (+7.2%)
Labor: 46.0% (–7.2%)

Approval ratings:
Miles: 38% approval, 49% disapproval
Crisafulli: 47% approval, 33% disapproval

Preferred Premier:
Crisafulli: 47%
Miles: 37%
Uncommitted: 20%

This would translate into a landslide victory for the LNP.

Yep. Miles has been getting a bad run and looks like it’s over