Queensland 2024

Not to make the assumption that all crime is robbery, but that’s just an example.

Labor seems to be really struggling in QLD with a new poll showing no improvement however it is still a year away but I’m doubtful of a change in their favour.

Another scandal and another coverup.

I would very surprised if Annastacia Palaszczuk is the Labor leader come Election time. if the reports are to believed, there is a good chance Palaszczuk would be dumped in the coming months or even weeks.

@patrreon rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship won’t stop it from sinking they’ll need 26 mps or 50% if you like to cause a spill

There’s murmuring of a leadership change, I personally think its not going to change substantially there may be an initially jump in Labor but I don’t think it would be enough and it seems Labor isn’t doing itself any favours. Its worth mentioning that the media is being relentless in QLD against Labor and that seems to be taking affect as well.

There’s ongoing speculation of Annastacia Palaszczuk as well as Dan Andrews resigning. They’re the only two pandemic-era Premiers left. I doubt there are plotters in the party looking to replace Palaszczuk. It seems that she can go the full mile. Of course, a broken clock is right twice a day.

She definitely won’t resign before the referendum. If she leaves after the referendum, her successor will have less than a year to campaign. Last-minute replacements before elections or with the intent of winning the next election don’t do well e.g. Rudd, Gillard, Turnbull. If she stays till the election, she will have clocked up more days as Premier than Peter Beattie.

I want to come back to something upthread. I was was thinking about it at the time, but a number of things happening over the past month or so has got me thinking about it again. The ‘nuclear option’, e.g. ALP putting Greens behind LNP on the ‘how to vote’ cards.

What I can’t see is what the downside is for Labor? There might be a handful of voters who are so upset by this they switch from Labor to Green – but if they are so upset about Labor putting the Libs over the Greens they probably aren’t preferencing the Libs above Labor anyway. For the already Greens voters, what do they do? Pref the Libs, continue to preference Labor or put in an informal vote? If, as I suspect, they continue to pref the ALP then no issues, if the ALP stay above the Libs and there are a lot of Green informals then no issue, only if the Greens pref the Libs then there is an issue. Add to this, some recent by elections with no ALP candidate haven’t exactly screamed out that ALP voters automatically see the Greens as fellow ideological travellers. Couple this with what is happening in the Senate now, where the Greens are essentially holding Labor hostage which they feel they can do due to the preferencing deal(s).

So what am I missing, where is the actual downside for Labor in putting the Greens last (well at least below the Libs)?

@Mostly Labor Voter

At the minimum, I suspect it will at least be a death sentence for Labor in any seats that are Labor vs Green on 2pp, where there are nearly f*** all risk of going to the Liberals (even if Labor preferences the Liberals and Labor somehow falls 3rd).

Obviously they are giving up on South Brisbane if they do that, but I don’t think the effects of this will be restricted to State Level QLD. Noting that these types of seats are very educated and politically aware, this will impact Labor vs Green 2pp battles in several state and federal seats whom will definitely learn one way or the other that Labor has gone “nuclear” (even if they are far far away from QLD).

I will list relevant seats (that Labor still holds)

– VIC: Northcote definitely, possibly Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray (even without Liberal preferences this time)
– NSW: Summer Hill, possibly Heffron once the Libs fall 3rd (but I think it’s a bridge too far)
– WA: Fremantle (State only)
– Federal: Cooper, Wills, Canberra, Sydney (esp. after next redistribution that pushes it west)
– Probably more if the Liberals also go “nuclear” at that level of govt like VIC 2022 and QLD 2020

This could even be the move that kills Albanese’s personal vote in Grayndler given there are huge amounts of Green voters at Council/State who votes for him. That alone doesn’t look like enough to unseat him due to the Western parts of Grayndler, particularly after the upcoming redistribution.

Also, remember that Warrandyte and the inner Brisbane seats are fundamentally different in nature.
The Average Labor voter in Warrandyte != The Average Labor voter in Cooper/McConnell etc.

If you look at the “Teal” areas in Northern Sydney/Vaucluse in NSW State, the nominal Liberal vs Labor and Liberal vs Green 2pp were not *that* different. In fact Greens did better than Labor on this measure in Pittwater, Manly and Vaucluse (though these are also different to Inner Brisbane and Warrandyte). Yes, HTV for Labor and Greens both put each other over the Liberals but given OPV, there must have been a substantial amount that didn’t get the HTV (or even some that did) and just voted 1.

(That said, the Greens 2pp in Warrandyte was far lower than I personally expected. Just before 6pm, I predicted 38 vs 62 but they got 29 vs 71)

I don’t think Labor need to be concerned about a 52-48 LNP lead in the polls at this point in the state election cycle. If it hits 54-46 to LNP that’s when things are looking bleak for labor. If Labor isn’t above 51% TPP by June next year that’s when to start speculating a loss. The preferred premier numbers are the biggest sore point for Labor at the moment. The biggest point of hope for them is that Crisafulli has very large ‘Don’t know’ percentage in terms of approval much like Frecklington did, so his approval could sour very quickly in a campaign period.

I don’t see Palaszczuk resigning this term, if she wins the next one she’ll probably end up second longest serving premier in Queensland before calling it quits or being rolled.

At this stage, my best guess is Labor takes a narrow majority. If the greens do well in Brisbane a minority is almost certain, if its less than 3 they’ll try and work with Katter. Otherwise they’ll just govern in minority given how a greens coalition in Queensland would kill their vote outside of Brisbane.

Thanks for the considered reply Leon, but I am not sure I agree 100%.

There are certainly some seats there which will may well fall, but I think though we agree on Warrandyte Labor voters not being the same as the inner urban ones (although it wasn’t just Warrandyte it was Willoughby too), which is is probably my biggest point. There is a danger that being too close to the Greens will spark lots of those voters shifting to the Coalition, and any losses averted in the inner city will be swamped by suburban losses. But the coalition, due to the Teals, are having the same problems so it might be a moot point.

But I certainly don’t see the Greens becoming the main left wing party if the ALP go nuclear, I think that is pretty fanciful. The Greens rely on Labor preferences just as much as the other way (and quite frankly are less likely to get them).

If Labor take the nuclear option, they undo any goodwill the Greens might have towards them in the event of a hung parliament. That isn’t to say the Greens would support a LNP minority government; they’d probably just remain neutral and vote against any government formation, unless one side made very significant concessions to them. Essentially, Labor would be sabotaging their own chances of remaining in government, given the 2024 election looks quite close on a 2pp basis. They don’t have a lot of friends on the crossbench, as I’d imagine both One Nations and the Katters would side with the LNP in a hung parliament. So perhaps it’s a question of whether Labor prefers some power or no power, since Queensland only has one house of parliament.

I don’t really think Labor would get a lot of benefit out of preferencing the Coalition above the Greens. They risk losing a seat to the Coalition, which is shooting yourself in the foot if there’s a minority government, and they risk presenting the Coalition a free gift to win (some) inner-city seats, which is one of the demographic areas where the Coalition are having difficulties at present. Why would Labor want to give the Coalition a leg up in this demographic?

I’m not really convinced that such a move is necessary either. Is the perception of being too close to the Greens really such a significant vote driver to the Coalition? Maybe in some seats, but I doubt it’s a front-and-centre issue for why voters would be changing their vote from Labor to Coalition in the first place.

Additionally, the ‘nuclear option’ leaves Labor more open to attack from the Greens that Labor would rather the Coalition than the Greens. Preference order generally indicates some kind of ideological preference. The Greens could more credibly tie Labor together with the Coalition or some of their policies, and I doubt this would go down well with Labor/Greens swing voters.

Still think some on have exaggerated Labors plight. A favourable poll to the LNP and their primary vote is only 37%. They have to win 13 seats to form government in in their own right. And they need to make inroads into Brisbane which means there no sure bet. David Crisafulli polling numbers aren’t that great. A year is a long time in politics though so I will acknowledge time for a change factor could work in the LNP’S favor.

Labor successions have squeaked out another term with Paul Keating, Jay Weather, Jay Weatherill, Morris Iemma and to a lesser extent Anna Bligh. I still think Peter Beattie would of won in 2009 with a 22 seat majority. While no doubt the polling numbers are down. I tend to think murmurs of change in Labor are those believing renewal is the best way forward.

@Wilson – goodwill is a two way street. What the Greens are doing in the Senate at moment also risks losing the goodwill of Labor.
@Greens Political Party Supporter – I tend to think the idea of Labor being too close to the Greens will play out in a specific way. Either the Greens will force Labor to drop something that they went to the election with, or force something through that will put a lot of Labor voters off. Only then will it become an issue. In the current climate, I reckon the Greens forcing a rent freeze through while mortgagees have seen repayments go up would be exactly the scenario that would see Labors support drop unless they started putting the Greens last.

Last guardian essential poll i saw on rent freezes showed support at 61% among Labor voters and even 55% for Coalition voters, so I really doubt that. If Albo wants to tank support for rent freezes I imagine the best thing he can do is pretend to support it, like he has with the Voice.

or Palaszczuk for that matter. She’s not exactly a midas touch lately either

@labor voter labor will always preference the greens above labor because if they don’t greens will use it against them and when it comes to getting there bills up they tend to rely on them for support.
@furtive. I bet everyone who said yes is a renter.thats just like saying who wants a pay increase anyone who’s an employee is obviously gonna support it. Palaschuk is going down one way or the other changing the leader won’t save them

55% of coalition voters are renters? 61% of labor voters are renters?

@furtive i should clarify that the majority of people dont own a rental property and are either renters or probably know somoeone who is i.e kids etc. those people have a vested interested in the matter. also theres the fact if you put rent freeze on people are less likely to invest in porperty causing a housin shortage and that makes the situation worse. people who rent those properties have costs i.e mortagaes to pay and they do get a freeze on theres do they. as a renter myself i can see this thats why you have a rental agreement which stipulates the rent

John, I believe most people who rent properties won’t be owning a home (and hence not having any mortgage) simultaneously. There may be a small portion of people who are renting because they are re-building their own home and need a temporary place to stay.

@yoh an still noone who has an investment property would be saying yes to that. its easy to support a rent freeze but youve got to remember the majoirty who do arent billionaires or corporations they are mum and dad investors who have a mortage on the property and they dont get a mortage freeze or 2 year payment terms on repairs or costs assocated with the property

Yes John, the overwhelming majority of the population has a vested interest in rent freezes. That’s why they’re popular and why MLV’s post about it hurting Labor is ridiculous.

well it would be economic suicide thats why thats just like asking people if theyd like a freeze on their power prices or groceries or mortgage of course people are gonna say yes.

i see. remember to remind voters of that on the doorstep if they get any funny ideas about anything possibly getting better.

Labor preferencing the LNP over the Greens would work if Labor is actually well ahead of the LNP (e.g. currently in WA) and they’re keen on stopping the Greens from winning more seats. Labor may “accidentally” increase LNP’s seat count but it could be a risk they could take to blackmail the Greens.

A problem for Labor is that they generally don’t rank highly on minor parties’ preference order. Left-wing parties like Animal Justice and socialiast parties preference the Greens ahead of Labor whilst right-wing parties like UAP and One Nation preference LNP ahead of Labor. There’s a good reason for Labor to try to get itself above the Greens on the LNP’s HTV card and above the LNP on the Greens’ HTV card. Normally this is the case with some exceptions (e.g. Victoria, 2022).

I think I should make it clear. The point of the post wasn’t to suggest that the rent freeze would push people from Labor to Liberal, only that it was the kind of policy that if Labor conceded it would flag their closeness to the Greens and might (would?) hurt them. We already know from recent by elections that Labor voters don’t rush out and vote Greens when Labor aren’t on the ballot, and anything that smacked of backing down could see a significant movement, particularly in seats where it really matters. See Carbon tax.
I do think though that in the current climate it would be a lot less popular than the current polls have it (see Voice, The), and even if it is popular it doesn’t mean that implementing it would be popular for Labor, which was the point of the post.

I meant the point of the example, the point of the post was to suggest putting the Greens last wouldn’t obviously be a negative for Labor.

@votante they won’t preference the libs over the greens because they are arch enemies and 2 any seat that the greens get the preferences labor will already have been ruled out in they would rather deal with the greens then the libs and then there’s the issue that the greens would use it against them to win labor seats

Question: will Queensland have a redistribution for 2024 or nah? They haven’t had one since 2017.

Latest Redbridge poll for Qld is absolutely dire for Labor. 2pp is estimated 45-55 in the LNP’s favour, with Labor on 26 – yes, as in two-six – on primary vote. But looking at the demographic breakdowns probably makes it look even worse.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5jRAZJbIAAT4HC?format=jpg&name=large

Going simply by the 2pp pendulum they’re looking at losing roughly 20 seats straight up. But they’re getting squeezed on all sides. They’re almost level pegging with the Greens among renters *across the entire state*, and 18-34 year olds openly prefer the Greens.

It’s going to be very interesting to see a) if Labor can turn this around (I doubt it), and b) the furniture they decide to save. Do they try to salvage the traditional marginal 2pp matchups as best they can, or do they give up on beating the LNP entirely and focus entirely on stopping the Greens (knowing it’ll probably be harder to dislodge them than LNP incumbents in 2028)?

One thing’s for sure and that’s palaszczuk’s key-jingling wishy-washy politics, building stadiums and hosting the olympics, pandering to racists and so forth while largely ignoring the housing crisis and other concerns of Labor’s traditional base has finally come back to haunt her.

And actually they’re gonna have to ask themselves what they plan to do about Katter and ‘others’ in Northern Queensland as well. They might be even harder to beat in 2028 than the Greens.

Greens getting 34% of the 18-34 votes across the State, most likely means high 40s among the age in Inner City Brisbane seats. Save to assume, that Grace Grace in McConnell and Jonty Bush in Cooper must be very worried.

If only there were more detailed polling. The age groups should be like this and include separate ones for men and women of each group.
18-24 (young adults)
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+ (retirement age)

Furtive, surprisingly 26% primary was what Labor achieved in the 2012 landslide defeat, and the LNP won 60%+ 2PP at that election. I guess the major parties’ votes are being squeezed from both sides, Labor losing support to the Greens amongst young voters and the LNP losing support to One Nation and KAP in North Queensland.

Yeah on these numbers it’s not a 2012 wipeout, but a decisive loss without question. WRT secular decline, obviously the LNP prefer their own bums on seats but neither Katter or ON really pose any serious threat to the LNP legislative agenda. They’re more or less ideological travellers even if ON is ‘a bad look’ to some swing voters. But Labor hates the Greens and everything they stand for in the very core of their being. I think they’re very unlikely to relinquish seats like Cooper regardless of the broader strategic concerns.

The poll says Crisafulli will win in a landslide.

It also shows that many of Brisbane’s young people are now as woke as many of Melbourne’s young people given the high Greens vote among under 25s. Interestingly in NSW (even Sydney except inner-city Sydney) even though the Greens got most of their support from these people, the Coalition and Labor have still been the main choices for first preferences. I remember seeing polling that showed Gladys and even Perrottet having high ratings among under 30s in NSW. But then of course NSW is the Greens’ weakest state in terms of primary vote (I think; also remember the NT is not a state but a territory).

@ Nether Portal to answer your earlier question there will not be a redistribution in QLD before next year’s election.

I personally think that we should be doing them a bit more often than every 8/9 years, especially given the state’s speed of population growth, but nobody seems to mind all that much.

Laine, nsw and Victoria also do their state redistributions every 8 years and federal redistributions are also every 7 years unless a state changes its apportionment before the full 7 years are up.

@ Yoh An that’s true, I think I just had the smaller states on my mind at the time of writing.

Redistributions aside though I think the LNP are favored to win next year’s election as of right now. The idea of a landslide is still far from coming to fruition but it feels as if Labor is losing more ground ever so slightly as the time passes.

@laine they do it after every 2 elections.same as Vic and NSW. The population growth inst universal across QLD. And there is the clause that if more then 1/3 go outside quota deviation it is also triggered though this has never happened yes I’d say so labor is past its shelf life of 3 terms ad they will lose. It won’t be a wipeout like 2012 but it some ways that’s good as govts that have too much power often lose. Look at Howard in 07 and the sa and QLD liberals also look at labor in WA despite controlling both houses and 9/10 seats in the LA there plummeting in the polls. I don’t think it will be enough to lose but the libs now have hope
.@yoh an I think the states are the same whenever new seats are added.

@Laine the margin of 12% and the TPP swing of 8% shown in the poll is considered a landslide. If that poll was 100% accurate then the LNP’s TPP in Queensland would be exactly the same as Labor’s TPP in Victoria in 2022, both 55%.

I am not sure how reliable Redbridge is for opinion polling. With all due respect, they do very interesting analyses on voting by demographics and long-term voting intentions. The 55-45 2PP coupled with 26% primary vote for Labor seems really bullish for the LNP and really dire for Labor. It shows 10% for ‘other’ and it seems quite high (One Nation is its own category). Who is this ‘other’? KAP, independents, Cannabis and UAP?

I do agree with the general sentiment that LNP will gain seats to get into a minority government at the very least. I also sense the Greens will pick up a seat, most likely Cooper. Grace Grace might just hang on in McConnel. The risk for her is that the LNP preferences the Greens, then take a back seat and let the Greens fight Labor.

Crisafulli not being known is unsurprising. He isn’t Tim Nicholls, a former Treasurer or Campbell Newman, a Lord Mayor so of course them two were known when they were leaders heading into an election. There was talk that Chris Minns was unknown at the start of this year, and yet he became the Premier of NSW.

@Votante Chris Minns was only recognised by 60% of people in his own seat of Kogarah compared to 80% in Kogarah who recognised Perrottet, according to a poll. In fact I do recall the same poll showing that both Perrottet and Minns were more recognised in Perrottet’s seat of Epping than in Minns’ seat of Kogarah.

In NSW, the Labor Party formed a minority government because the Coalition government was still popular. Perrottet was no Gladys but he still consistently was preferred Premier over Minns. The TPP in NSW is also disproportionate; normally 54% would get you a good majority and that’s what Labor got in SA in 2022 (in Victoria, Labor got 55% in 2022 and in WA they got 69% in 2021), but they fell two seats short of a majority. In contrast, Gladys had 52% TPP and a majority in 2019 and Baird had 54% and a comfortable majority in 2015. So NSW Labor got a minority government but still a higher TPP than Queensland and the NT where Labor won majorities. I’d like to see a Gallagher Index of the 2023 NSW state election.

Gallagher index is here: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51490

Disproportionality is up a bit but nothing like it was during the last Labor government.

But you can’t really compare one party’s seat results to a 2PP result. 2PP by definition reduces down to two parties but a parliament doesn’t work like that. I don’t know how you can talk about these numbers without using the word “crossbench”. The crossbench in NSW now is enormous, much bigger than at those other elections.

Labor won the 2PP in a clear majority of seats, but that includes 6 seats won be the Greens or independents.

The other factor is that Labor fell just slightly short in a bunch of seats. In this post I show how there was a remarkably large number of seats the Coalition narrowly won. If those close races split evenly Labor would’ve won a majority: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51307

I don’t think any of those factors tell you anything about Minns’ “popularity” as much as the fracturing party system and a bit of bad luck in specific races.

NSW is disproportionate but not in Labor’s favour. I agree that 54% 2PP is pretty high for a party that didn’t achieve majority. I saw the NSW pendulum and there are 8 LNP seats with margins under 2% whilst Labor has 2 of them.

@Nether Portal, Chris Minns was unknown to 60% of his own electorate and that was in March. I suspect it was a journalist-run straw poll done on the streets of Kogarah one weekday. Opposition Leaders being unknown is nothing new.

I don’t think Crisafulli’s unknownness will hurt his chances because the ‘it’s time’ factor and the growing baggage are dragging down Labor. Housing and cost of living especially with inflation (which is slowly subsiding) are also damaging the Labor brand.

The only reason Labor is doing so poorly is because the people have lost trust in the premier to handle the youth crime crisis, there is simply no trust there anymore. People want change because they are getting sick of these bad boys/thugs running around and smashing peoples cars and seriously hurting others.

Cost of living is more of a federal issue (same with inflation), the main focus of the state government is keeping crime rates low, delivering on infrastructure, getting more tourism, and making sure our schools are doing as well as they should be, and of course holding the feds to account which rarely happens when it’s same party.

It will narrow at the end, Premier is no Bligh, nor is Opposition Leader a Newman. But anything from 42-51 LNP seats seems the most likely outcome.

She won’t resign because she does not think anyone in her cabinet will do a better job, and she will argue she won the ”unwinnable” election of 2015 and will claim she can do it again.

Fentiman has a chance but Miles doesn’t have the ”feels” and ”charisma” to win statewide. Dick is more charismatic but I don’t see him doing as well with women voters like Fentiman would.

I think anymore ”big” youth crime incident in the next 12 months will further move the LNP ahead in the polls especially if Labor is seen as not acting. But I really don’t see the LNP getting to 60 TPP.

@votanye there will be an lnp govt one way or the other. kAP and ONP will not back a labor govt no matter how much they say they arent committed to automatically siding with lnp they are just haggling for a better deal. It would be political suicide not only for them at a state level but federally as well especially in regards to Bob Katter in kennedy

Crisafulli today has (predictably) backflipped on the treaty process in Queensland, which means that it’s going nowhere if we assume the LNP take power next year as the polls currently suggest.

Are he and Dutton trying to win points by turning on the bare minimum they had previously committed to less than a week after the referendum? I guess I get it since it’s still on everybody’s mind, but it gives the impression their commitments are shallow and that they waited for an excuse to throw it all in the bin.

@laine good. now its time for pesutto to grow a pair and do the same shout out to mark speakman in nsw for also ruling it out. sa liberals need to scrap the sa voice in 2026