Senate count update – a left-wing landslide

The House of Representatives contest has been a very comfortable win for Labor, and this has also been reflected in the Senate.

One of the biggest deciding factors in the Senate is whether either the left or right can win a “4-2 split”, where their side can win four out of six. Almost all elections are 3-3 splits, although there are some senators (such as Jacqui Lambie) who don’t fit into the two sides.

The Coalition Senate majority in 2004 was built on 3-3 splits in every state in 2001 and 2004, and topped off by a single 4-2 split in Queensland in 2004. This was also boosted by Family First winning a seat that would have otherwise gone to the left in Victoria, producing another 4-2 split.

This election is the twelfth Senate election where each state elects six members. That means there have been 66 state contests for six senators from 1990 to 2022. In that time, the left has managed a 4-2 split just five times. But right now there is a possibility of a left-right split in five states, with the left leading in four of those states.

Right now, we are looking at a scenario where the left could possibly win four seats out of six in every state except Queensland (where they have replaced a 4-2 right split with a 3-3 split), as well as the 2-0 split in the ACT. This would lead to a very clear Labor-Greens majority, with some seats to spare.

In recent years, the dropping Labor primary vote has largely closed the door on the party winning third Senate seats in any state. Usually each state elects two Labor senators and one Greens senator. The Greens have now won a seat in each state at the last two elections, and will do so again in 2025. That in itself is notable – the Democrats and the DLP never achieved a full sweep of every state. So that 2-1 split on the left is maintained, but Labor is now potentially winning third seats off the right instead.

Meanwhile the Coalition still regularly won three seats in a state, although that trend faded in 2022. The Coalition won three seats in five states in 2019, but just two states in 2022. This year, the Coalition has no prospects for a third seat in any state.

In most of the close states, the contest is between Labor and One Nation. One Nation is also in a contest against ex-LNP senator Gerard Rennick in Queensland.

By my count, the Senate now looks like:

• Labor – 27-31
• Coalition – 26-27
• Greens – 11
• One Nation – 1-5
• Jacqui Lambie – 0-1
• Gerard Rennick – 0-1
• Others – David Pocock, Ralph Babet, Tammy Tyrrell, Fatima Payman, Lidia Thorpe

Labor and the Greens at a bare minimum will have half the Senate, but Labor is in with a chance of winning four other Senate seats, which could potentially give them three seats spare on top of a majority.

It is likely that Labor will fall short of the position where they could pass legislation without needing Coalition or Greens support – the only scenario where there would be an alternative path would be if Labor won every close race and Richard Colbeck missed out in Tasmania. But even then an alternative path to a majority would require the entire remaining crossbench to vote together, including Pocock, Hanson, Babet and Thorpe. That’s hard to imagine.

Finally, I have also taken all of the results since the introduction of the new Senate electoral system in 2016 for groups that polled over 0.28 quotas, and looked at their remainder of quotas after using up whole quotas, and whether they won one more seat.

The lowest vote share to produce a senator was One Nation in Queensland in 2016, when they polled 1.19 quotas and won two seats, followed by United Australia in Victoria in 2022, who polled 0.28 quotas. Once a group is over 0.4 quotas, they are more likely to win than not. No group polling under 0.6 quotas didn’t win a seat. The highest vote to not elect someone was Labor in Queensland in 2019, who polled 1.58 quotas and only won one seat.

New South Wales – 2 Labor, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens, Labor leading One Nation

NSW elected three Coalition, two Labor and one Greens in 2022.

The Coalition vote has crashed by almost 7 points, and Nationals senator Perin Davey will definitely lose her seat. The other five seats are solid. The final seat is a contest between Labor’s third senator and One Nation.

Labor and the Coalition will easily retain their first two seats each. The Greens’ Mehreen Faruqi is a clear front-runner for the fifth seat.

No party has ever failed to win a seat with over 60% of a quota under the current electoral system, so Labor are the favourite.

Labor’s lead over One Nation is currently 0.23 quotas. There is a substantial number of right-wing preferences between the Coalition, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarian, Family First and the Australian Christians.

On the other hand, there is almost a quarter of preferences with Legalise Cannabis and a fifth of a quota with other left-leaning parties.

Generally preferences don’t flow very strongly according to a how-to-vote card, and right-leaning voters tend to give their preferences less of a flow than left-leaning voters. But those left-leaning preferences will split between Labor and the Greens, with the Greens unlikely to reach a quota, and thus any preferences flowing to them can’t help Labor.

Right now Labor is in front but this could go either way.

Victoria – 2 Labor, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens, final seat Labor leading One Nation and Legalise Cannabis

Victoria elected two Coalition, two Labor, one Greens and one United Australia Party in 2022. That Greens senator, Lidia Thorpe, has since left the party to sit as an independent.

The Coalition and Labor shall each retain two seats with full quotas, with the Greens far out in front for the fifth seat.

Labor is not far out in front of One Nation and Legalise Cannabis.

There are quite a lot of right-leaning preferences available, while left-leaning preferences will be scattered between Greens, Labor and Legalise Cannabis. It is possible Legalise Cannabis could gain preferences from both the left and the right and get ahead of One Nation, but it’s more likely that One Nation will be Labor’s main rival.

There was sufficient votes amongst minor right-wing parties in 2022 to elect Ralph Babet off one of the lowest votes to elect a senator under the current system. Victoria has only experienced a small swing to the left since 2022, unlike other states.

Queensland – 2 Labor, 2 Liberal National, 1 Greens, One Nation leading Gerard Rennick

Labor only managed to win one seat in Queensland in 2019, producing a 4-2 split with three LNP, one Greens and one One Nation. They restored the 3-3 split in 2022, when the LNP was reduced to two seats.

In 2025, that 3-3 split has been repeated, producing an extra Labor senator compared to the class of 2019. The LNP has definitely lost their third seat, with competition between two minor right wing senators for the third right-wing seat: One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts and ex-LNP senator Gerard Rennick’s People First party.

The Greens are far out in front with the major parties each locking in two seats, but with relatively little in the way of a surplus.

The race for the final seat is between two right-wingers so it won’t have any grand effects on the balance of the Senate, but it will mean that One Nation will be deprived of a Senate seat they’ve held since 2019. One Nation has a lead of about 0.15 quotas, with about 0.59 quotas sititng with other right wing parties. There are quite a lot of left-wing preferences which could flow to Legalise Cannabis and potentially push them ahead of Rennick, but that would likely just have the result of locking in One Nation’s victory.

Western Australia – 2 Labor, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens, last seat Labor leading One Nation

The Liberal Party is just short of their second quota, and the Greens are also short of a quota, but they will win the fourth and fifth seats.

Labor leads One Nation by about 0.15 quotas, with quite a lot of preferences available. There are definitely more right-wing preferences, but some of those will go to the Liberal Party and many of them will scatter or exhaust.

South Australia – 3 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens

It’s hard to see this state producing anything but a 4-2 split for the left.

The Liberals and Greens are very close to winning the fourth and fifth seats, but Labor is also not that far away from winning the last seat. The closest rival is One Nation, but Labor is over a third of a quota ahead.

There are also fewer right-wing preferences. There are about one sixth of a quota each sitting with the Jacqui Lambie Network (Rex Patrick) and Legalise Cannabis, and I don’t think they will favour One Nation over Labor.

Tasmania – 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens, final two seats Liberal and Jacqui Lambie leading Labor

The Liberal vote in Tasmania has crashed badly, to the point where they could potentially only win one seat – something which I don’t think has ever happened to a Coalition ticket under the proportional electoral system, although it has happened to Labor a few times.

Kevin Bonham has done deeper analysis into likely preference flows and expects that Lambie will do best and win the fifth seat. It seems like Labor may do slightly better than the Liberals on preferences, but the Liberals have a decent lead now.

Australian Capital Territory – 1 David Pocock, 1 Labor

This is very clear. Pocock has won with a large surplus and Labor is just short of a quota.

Northern Territory – 1 Labor, 1 Country Liberal

As with every past election in the Northern Territory, this result is clear.