ALP 0.4%
Incumbent MP
Keith Wolahan (Liberal), since 2022.
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Menzies covers most of the Manningham council area, north-western parts of the Whitehorse council area and a small sliver of the Boroondara council area. Suburbs include Blackburn North, Box Hill, Bulleen, Doncaster, Templestowe and Warrandyte.
Redistribution
Menzies shifted west, losing Wonga Park to Casey, North Warrandyte to Jagajaga and Donvale and Park Orchards to Deakin. Menzies took in parts of Kooyong and Chisholm at the south-western corner of the electorate, including the area around Box Hill. These changes flipped the seat from a 0.7% Liberal margin to a 0.4% Labor margin.
History
Menzies was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. It has always been held by the Liberal Party for its short history.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Liberal candidate Neil Brown. Brown had previously held the marginal seat of Diamond Valley on two occasions, holding it from 1969 to 1972 and 1975 to 1983. He had served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1981 to 1983. Brown was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1987, and retired in 1991.
The Menzies by-election in 1991 was easily won by Liberal candidate Kevin Andrews, with no Labor candidate standing. Andrews was a strongly conservative backbencher, and pushed through a private members’ bill in 1996 overturning the Northern Territory’s euthanasia laws. Andrews has been re-elected ten times.
Andrews was appointed as a junior minister in 2001 and was promoted to Cabinet in 2003. He was originally responsible for implementing the Workchoices policy after the 2004 election, and then served as Minister for Immigration.
Andrews moved to the backbench after the 2007 election, but returned to the frontbench after Tony Abbott was elected leader in late 2009. He served as a minister in the Abbott government, but was sacked after Malcolm Turnbull replaced Abbott as Prime Minister in 2015.
Andrews was defeated for Liberal preselection by Keith Wolahan in 2021, and Wolahan narrowly won the seat in 2022.
Assessment
While it was dramatic to see Menzies flip from the Liberal side to Labor for the first time due to the redistribution, this is merely the culmination of other changes over recent years. The seat became substantially more progressive in the redistribution prior to the 2019 election, and then there was quite a large swing against Wolahan in his first election in 2022.
Menzies has never been as close to the statewide average 2PP since 1984. The change of 1.1% towards Labor in the recent redistribution is relatively small compared to those changes. The big question is how much of that swing in 2022 was due to the new Liberal candidate, and whether he can recover territory now that he’s been an incumbent for three years. An expected swing to the Liberal Party in Victoria should boost Wolahan.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Keith Wolahan | Liberal | 42,526 | 42.1 | -8.8 | 41.0 |
| Naomi Oakley | Labor | 33,635 | 33.3 | +2.8 | 31.8 |
| Bill Pheasant | Greens | 14,289 | 14.1 | +4.0 | 12.9 |
| Independent | 4.9 | ||||
| Nathan Scaglione | United Australia | 3,643 | 3.6 | +1.2 | 3.1 |
| Greg Cheesman | Liberal Democrats | 3,646 | 3.6 | +3.6 | 3.1 |
| John Hayes | One Nation | 2,312 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.0 |
| Sanjeev Sabhlok | Federation Party | 968 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.8 |
| Others | 0.5 | ||||
| Informal | 3,355 | 3.2 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Naomi Oakley | Labor | 49,821 | 49.3 | +6.3 | 50.4 |
| Keith Wolahan | Liberal | 51,198 | 50.7 | -6.3 | 49.6 |
Booths in Menzies have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south. The two northern areas covers those booths in the Manningham area, with those in Whitehorse and Boroondara in the south.
The ALP won a clear 57.2% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south, polling particularly strongly in the Box Hill area.
The Liberal Party narrowly won the north-east and north-west with 50.9% and 50.5% respectively.
Monique Ryan also polled strongly in the small part of Menzies moved in from Kooyong, such that her vote across the south was 13.3%.
The Greens had a primary vote ranging from 13.8% in the north-west to 15.1% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | IND prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 15.1 | 13.3 | 57.2 | 17,598 | 16.4 |
| North-East | 14.0 | 0.0 | 49.1 | 15,086 | 14.0 |
| North-West | 13.8 | 0.0 | 49.5 | 10,306 | 9.6 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 4.3 | 50.5 | 39,142 | 36.4 |
| Other votes | 11.6 | 4.7 | 46.8 | 25,413 | 23.6 |
Election results in Menzies at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and independent candidate for Kooyong Monique Ryan.
Menzies has been called for Labor by the ABC.
Keith Wolahan has conceded defeat.
I just wish to make a few comments as i am a resident here. I grew up here and spent virtually all my life in Menzies. I do want to thank him for his service he is a mild mannered hard working MP who geniunely puts country then local community first over party/idelology. I never thought Labor would ever win and the previous member, Kevin Andrews took the seat for granted. I dont believe this Wolahan’s loss, however, the people of Menzies did not leave the Liberal party the party left us. Menzies especially the northern part is a combination of Mitchell/Berowra while the southern part is a bit like Bennelong or parts of Parramatta. While it is very CALD it is generally the more afffluent sections of the CALD community, CALD communities are integrated here and ethnic relations are good. I voted at Box Hill North PS booth on Saturday and i told the Liberal volunteer that i liked Keith Wolahan but Dutton was Toxic Both my Primary school Doncaster Gardens and High School Doncaster Secondary are Labor booths now.
@Nimalan interesting insights. Is Deakin similar?
@ Nether Portal,
For Aston, Chisholm, Deakin and Menzies as all those seats shouldn’t realistically be held by Labor.
@ NP
Deakin is a slighlty less affluent seat more typical Middle Australia seat. However, it is less diverse than Menzies ethnically. Aston is more like Deakin than Menzies in terms of SES and ethnic diversity.
Chisholm on current boundaries is like the current Bennelong where West of Warrigal Road is Elite while the rest is Middle to Upper Middle Class and Labor really should not hold the seat.
@Nimalan interesting that Wolahan has done better than Sukkar then, shows how much personal votes affect the outcome.
@SpaceFish in 2016, 2019 and 2022 none of them were, they were all Liberal seats. Then Labor won Chisholm in 2022, Aston in 2023 at the by-election and now have Deakin and Menzies. If the Liberals don’t win Kooyong then they’ll only have one seat that’s entirely within Melbourne (Goldstein).
@ NP
I think Wolahan is better performing MP than Sukkar who is polarising. Sukkar is loved by the Right Faction but hated by modertate/centrist voters.
@Nimalan makes sense then.
On Aston and especially Menzies, I can definitely see how they’re more high tide seats for Labor. Deakin to an extent is also a high tide seat, but I think is going to become more Labor leaning over time though, at least concerning the suburbs of Nunawading, Mitcham and Ringwood along the Lilydale/Belgrave train line. For Chisholm though, putting aside the section west of Warrigal Road that got brought over from the abolished Higgins, it’s a very typical marginal seat (core of the seat is still very much the Monash Freeway north side of the City of Monash after all) that I think Labor can hold/gain even on tighter elections (as 2022 proved).
Put more simply, assuming a Liberal recovery next election (unless they do the impossible and return to government in 2028, or alternatively flop again), I could see the other 3 seats flip back, but Chisholm remain in the Labor fold for at least another term.
The libs should recpver menzies deakin and aston at the next election i 50/50 on chisholm. And dunkley could be in play too. Id imagine they should pickup mcewen too. Hawke and gorton will be in the crossahirs as well.
I applaud Keith Wolahan for showing up to Insiders on the morning after the election not just after the thrashing of his party but with his seat looking like it was gone.
I had a gut feeling that Deakin would go before Menzies and it sort of did as the swing in Deakin was larger.
” I told the Liberal volunteer that i liked Keith Wolahan but Dutton was Toxic”
Well you weren’t alone. There were voters who liked their candidate or MP but couldn’t bring themselves to vote Liberal.