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I sense David Pocock will retain his seat next election because of the sophomore surge and name recognition. Dutton has a really bad rap within the APS as a Health Minister and a Home Affairs Minister, moreso than other ministers, Labor or LNP. The Liberals would be better off focusing on winning/retaining three seats in the states. They do have a shot in QLD and VIC at picking up a third seat out of the six up for election.
The ACT Libs should not preselect Zed Seselja. His hard right politics won’t appeal to an affluent and progressive electorate. He’s also a “seat shopper” as he tried to get a NSW senate seat and ACT voters will question his loyalty. It’s best they preselect new blood.
I believe Labor was more worried about losing than the Liberals were in 2022 because of imminent three horse race where:
– Pocock could split the vote and reduce Labor’s primary.
– Greens and other minor party voters could send their preferences to Pocock instead of Labor.
This and NT will only be two seats next election. I’m going to say this will be
1 Pocock
1 Labor
not sure if Pocock will outpoll Labor but should be re-elected maybe a slightly better result for Pocock than in 2022.
atm id say libs within a chance of retaking the senate spot but would have to analyse the 2022 results and the upcoming act election results before making a definite prediction
Pocock will likely be elected and outpoll Labor if he and the libs strip enough votes off Labor who barely made a quota last time libs could swap out with lab
Based on ACT election, seeing a status quo result.
It wouldn’t take much to shift the Labor seat to liberal especially if the left vote solidifies behind pocock