Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of yesterday’s Australian federal election, which produced Labor’s best result since 1943. We talk about the close seats, how multi-party politics is transforming local electorate contests and what is likely to happen in the Senate.
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Great podcast Ben
It was interesting about Northern Tasmania seats especially Braddon White Working class areas that many thought may have been permenently lost. It is possible that Capricornia/Page may actually be lost by Labor for good but that i want to wait somemore time especially when current incumbents retire. Calare was a seat that Labor often won in the past but will never be won again. Regarding Herbert, i am also not too sure if Labor will win it back i think it is safe while the current incumbent is the member however, Herbert is an entirely urban electorate so i think it is a bit like Solomon demographically compared to Flynn or Capricornia
Keep an eye on Bradfield. I think this will flip either way. I also think Libs will win Goldstein and Ind will just win Kooyong, but could be very close. I am sure W. Bowe knows more than me but perhaps postals are flowing to the Libs in these seats much more than expected in his projection tool.
@DB. The redistribution of Kooyong suits the Liberal Party. Toorak, Malvern, and Armadale are the jewel in the Liberal crown.
If the Liberals get up, when the next redistribution is proposed, I will be putting in a submission to abolish Kooyong, and bring back the federal electorate of Yarra. Yarra, like in the 1960’s and 1970’s, would be centered around Richmond, Hawthorn, Abbotsford, and Collingwood.
The Kew, and Balwyn areas could go into Menzies. Malvern, Toorak, Armadale, Glen Iris, Camberwell, and Canterbury could be in a new electorate.
labor has on 2pp terms 96 out of 150 seats
with entschs retirement and broadbents defeat Bob Katter is the sole remainin MP from the Keating era.
@John interesting. I wonder how long he’s got left. He’s turning 80 this month (on the 22nd) and has been the member for Kennedy since 1993, longer than I’ve been alive.
@np he said a few years ago this would likely be his last election
@john he said a couple of weeks ago that he doesn’t have any retirement plans any time soon.
prior to the 2022 election he said he had maybe 2 elections left in him. so.. that would also be perfect timing to align with the end of the qld parliament to allow robbie to resign and fill his place.
Even less reason for Katter to turn up now – his vote in parliament won’t do anything. He has – I believe – the worst attendance record in Parliament.
@No Mondays
Are you saying that whether or not you make a submission to a redistribution committee will be based on a political outcome? That’s an odd thing to admit to.