ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Julian Hill, since 2016.
Geography
South-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Bruce covers northern parts of the Greater Dandenong and Casey council areas, along with a small part of the Monash council area. Suburbs include Berwick, Dandenong, Keysborough, Endeavour Hills, Hallam and Narre Warren.
Redistribution
Bruce expanded south-east, taking in Berwick from La Trobe and parts of Cranbourne North from Holt. These changes cut the Labor margin from 6.6% to 5.3%.
History
The seat of Bruce has existed since the 1955 election. Prior to 1996 it was a relatively safe Liberal seat, but demographic and boundary changes have seen the seat become a marginal Labor seat.
The seat was first won in 1955 by Liberal candidate Billy Snedden. Snedden served as a Cabinet minister from 1964 to 1972, serving as Billy McMahon’s Treasurer from 1971 until the government’s defeat in 1972. Snedden was elected Leader of the Liberal Party, and served in the role for the first two years of the Whitlam government. He used the Coalition’s Senate majority to block the Whitlam government’s budget, triggering the 1974 election, which he lost.
Snedden lost the Liberal leadership in early 1975, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in 1976 after the election of the Fraser government. He served in the role for the entirety of the Fraser government, and after the defeat of the government in 1983 he retired from Parliament.
The 1983 Bruce by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously held the seat of Henty from 1975 to 1980, when he was defeated. Aldred held Bruce until 1990, when he moved to the seat of Deakin, and held it until 1996.
Bruce was held by the Liberal Party’s Julian Beale from 1990 to 1996, when he lost to the ALP’s Alan Griffin. Griffin held Bruce for the next twenty years.
Griffin served as a shadow minister from 1998 to the election of the Rudd government in 2007, when he was appointed Minister for Veterans’ Affairs. He left the ministry after the 2010 election. Griffin retired in 2016.
Labor’s Julian Hill won Bruce in 2016, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Assessment
Bruce is a marginal Labor seat, but may be out of reach for the Liberal Party.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Julian Hill | Labor | 39,516 | 41.5 | -6.6 | 40.2 |
| James Moody | Liberal | 28,837 | 30.3 | -5.4 | 31.7 |
| Matthew Kirwan | Greens | 9,273 | 9.7 | +2.1 | 9.7 |
| Matt Babet | United Australia | 8,299 | 8.7 | +4.6 | 8.5 |
| Christine Skrobo | Liberal Democrats | 4,821 | 5.1 | +5.1 | 4.7 |
| Hayley Deans | One Nation | 4,544 | 4.8 | +3.8 | 4.7 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 4,321 | 4.3 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Julian Hill | Labor | 53,920 | 56.6 | -0.7 | 55.3 |
| James Moody | Liberal | 41,370 | 43.4 | +0.7 | 44.7 |
Booths in Bruce have been divided into four parts: central, east, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.8% in the east to 62% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the centre to 11% in the east and south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 10.9 | 52.7 | 14,548 | 13.9 |
| Central | 9.1 | 60.1 | 11,347 | 10.8 |
| West | 9.9 | 62.0 | 9,498 | 9.1 |
| East | 11.0 | 51.8 | 7,521 | 7.2 |
| Pre-poll | 8.9 | 54.8 | 37,826 | 36.0 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 53.9 | 24,206 | 23.1 |
Election results in Bruce at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
For a long time I thought this seat would be a tossup.
It typifies a conservative target seat – outer suburban, working class, in Melbourne (where swings could be volatile) with mortgage belt areas especially in the eastern part. It also has a state Labor government that’s losing popularity.
The Liberals blew their chance with a problematic candidate. He is like the Jaymes Diaz of 2025. He was interviewed on Sky News and he bumbled and didn’t know his party’s policies. I understand that people get nervous on camera but the Libs are could’ve chosen a more confident and appealing candidate to represent them in a not-so-safe seat.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIxhOZ5SpE8/
I also think that the Palestine issue makes it harder for the Liberals who are seen as more pro-Israel.
And now it turns out Zahid Safi lied about obtaining his masters degree. He is the gift that keeps on giving to Labor.
I got second hand embarrassment watching the Zahid Safi interview with Sky News today. Not sure why the Liberal Party allowed to be interviewed again, considering his last interview with Sky News turned into a embarrassment where he didn’t know his own Party’s policies.
The guy is clearly not up to it. Libs have spend a lot of resources here, they could have won if they had a slightly more competent candidate.
Zahid Safi just doesn’t seem like a serious candidate. He wouldn’t look out of place if he was a parody candidate running on a comedy show like Mad as Hell. He just laughs off and dodges each question posed to him by the media. Julian Hill will easily walk over him this election.
Yea lab retain here. Libs might be able to win it in 2028 with a better candidate d ame as in whitlam
I wouldn’t be surprised if some local Liberals are so embarrassed that they’d rather volunteer elsewhere.
I reckon there’s a solid argument to be made that Safi was the worst candidate pick by either major party in 2025. Even despite Bruce shifting eastward to take in Berwick and Beaconsfield, there was 10%+ swing AGAINST the Libs. What an absolutely catastrophic local campaign.
It is amazing that this seat had one of the biggest swings to Labor and is once again one of the safest Labor seats in the country despite now extending out to Berwick and Beaconsfield, and despite being constantly talked about as a close seat and potential Liberal gain.
Clearly the Libs had a dud candidate but there was an 18% swing to Labor in southern Berwick which is the biggest swing in any area I have seen anywhere in the country so far. Similar very big swings in nearby Clyde and Clyde North in Holt. There is a huge South Asian migrant population who probably rejected Dutton’s assertion that new migrants are the cause of all our problems.
I also think there was a big anti Labor swing last time due to COVID lockdowns and those votes came straight back to Labor this time.
The largest swings to Labor in Melbourne are in seats along the Pakenham/Cranbourne Line corridor (Hotham Bruce, Holt and La Trobe), something which I wouldn’t expect. It’s even more substantial than in the middle ring Eastern Melbourne seats which the Libs lost and where you’d think Dutton would appeal the least towards (Menzies, Chisholm, Deakin, Aston). Absolute disaster for the Libs, so much for the outer suburban strategy.
Zahid Safi was a bit like Scott Yung – on paper seemed to be a great candidate – from a CALD background in a very CALD electorate – and it all turned to total s**t. And it seems to have spread to La Trobe and Holt too.
Part of a wider problem for the libs definately still a target when they get their act together
Mightn’t be a South Asian thing as very very low swings to the ALP in Lalor, Hawke and Gorton that have sizable South Asian populations.
So much for the Liberals trying to promote and outgun Labor in the outer suburbs, when in fact they didn’t just get outgunned by Labor at their home turf, they got nuked entirely. Bruce and Holt were originally in the firing line but both got huge swings to them. Dunkley stayed relatively neutral, whilst Isaacs, Hotham and Chisholm all swung to Labor, as did Deakin, Menzies and Aston of all places. On the other side of town, a decent swing in Gellibrand to Labor and virtually no swing or small swing to Labor in Lalor, Gorton, Hawke and McEwen. Complete Failure of the Liberals to make any inroads in their supposed ‘new heartland’.
I’d say Zahid Safi is worse than Scott Yung. At least Scott has more appeal and better communication skills and a better resume. Zahid Safi was laughed-at more often.
I think the biggest swing in all of Victoria might’ve been in Bruce. The swing of 10% is probably amongst the highest in the country. For a while, we thought Victoria was the danger zone for Labor.
And ironically the two bright spots for the Libs in Melbourne: Kooyong and Goldstein where they are clawing back the margins through postal votes quite substantially. All that talk about abandoning the teal seats for a new outer suburban working class heartland yet its the two teal seats where they are doing the least worst.
@Dan M Kooyong wasn’t exactly helped by the redistribution which gave the best Liberal booths of Higgins to Kooyong. Those are old money affluent boomers who’d vote Liberal hell or high water.
As for Goldstein, I’m going to guess Israel? And before anyone mentions Macnamara, Josh Burns is Jewish himself which kind of neutralises the protest votes as he’s at least considered ‘one of them’. Not so much for Zoe Daniel unfortunately. If she lost that one I feel bad for her because unlike Ryan she hasn’t exactly put a foot wrong this term.
in regards to the new liberal heartland it still is. If tbe wheels hadnt fallen off the libs would have done well and probably will once they regroup.
The big swings against the Liberals in Bruce, Hotham, Aston, La Trobe and Holt, and the pretty neutral results in Hawke, McEwen, Gorton etc make me confident that Labor will win the 2026 Victorian election.
Yes, federal is different to state, Allan is different to Albanese, Battin isn’t Dutton.
But purely based on the map, Labor only need to sandbag a small handful of seats under 8% margins to retain even majority government let alone government at all, while the Liberals need to gain 18 seats (assuming they won’t keep Prahran) which takes them to over an 8% swing on the pendulum, to win government.
I’m not denying the Allan government is unpopular, but I think this election showed that discontent doesn’t necessarily translate into a swing.
Mid-term polls may reflect satisfaction & discontent, but once a campaign is underway that turns into more of a focus on the future.
Labor are a campaigning machine and the Liberals are just terrible at it, probably nowhere moreso than Victoria.
Yeah there will be a swing to the Libs, Labor will lose seats, but I just don’t see these outer suburban seats on 8-10% margins falling, which would be needed if any of those eastern suburbs on 6-8% margins don’t fall and I doubt they will either.