While my focus has been very much on the federal election, events have been developing in Tasmania, which culminated in a vote of no confidence on Thursday.
The premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has plans to visit the Governor on Tuesday to ask for an early election. At the moment it doesn’t seem likely that anyone else could command the support of the House of Assembly, but it is possible the Governor may decide to not grant an election right away in the hope of finding a way to continue with a parliament that is not yet 15 months old.
If an early election is called, the earliest possible date is July 19.
I had been planning to prepare a Tasmanian state election guide once the federal election is over, but events have forced this plan to be accelerated, so I have now published my guide.
It is entirely free from the paywall and features results maps, results tables, history, geographic descriptions and lists of MPs. It will eventually includes lists of candidates too. You can see the front page of the guide here, or click through on the electorate links below:
For now I’m going to return to analysis of the federal election, but once the election is called I will of course put together a schedule for podcasts, and turn some attention back to the southernmost state.
Is Bridget Archer a possibility for a switch to state politics? Presumably she has the name recognition to do well.
Ben I’ve just further realised all of the pages have the bass map for the bottom one with the vote shares by booth etc.
Lots of examples of state and federal mps shifting to the other.
On Federal figures… alp landslide however the vote in the state election will not be that. The vote should show an improvement in the alp vote. How much is the question. Probable hung parliament
A lot of voters will be cranky ‘at politics’ after an unedifying week. A big part of how this one goes is who those voters decide to blame and reward for this parliament falling over. Will they move to the ‘others’ pile, or will they back whichever of the majors they see as stronger?
All three big parties trying to blame this on each other… it’s not a great look for any of them. Rockliff seemed the most convincing to me, and I’m not a Liberal voter.
Presumably the 3 JLNs will fall out of Parliament. Labor will lose Rebecca White’s personal vote in Lyons. The Libs will maybe get a Rockliff bonus in Braddon if people think he’s hard done by. You’d have to think Garland has a shot at retaining, but it migt depend on a primary swing to avoid cutup vagaries again. The Greens could presumably get anywhere between say 3 on a terrible day and 6 (up one in Braddon if Briggs runs again and they manage to get a bit of a swing) if everything goes right. I can’t see them getting the second in Franklin without time to build up a second candidate, although Carly Allen just did well in their weakest part of the seat and Nathan Volf might be keen to hop over the border, too. (Another reason why their lapse in Section 44 checking for the fed was a gigantic mistake.)
Big question is who can be convinced to run in a hurry. Bridget Archer, Peter George, Bryan Green, Stephen Parry, Marcus Vermey have all presumably had a lot of phone calls over the last few days. Even the Libs have chances for pickups if this backfires on Winter or they run the right people. Will Sue Hickey run again? (Go on Sue, do it.)
Back in 2010, a similar situation arose. The Governor was deeply involved in finding a way forward – but things did not go smoothly.
Anne Twomey later wrote a discussion paper of the ins and outs of such a thing:
“Appointing the Premier in a Hung Parliament – — The Tasmanian Governor’s Choice”