While my focus has been very much on the federal election, events have been developing in Tasmania, which culminated in a vote of no confidence on Thursday.
The premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has plans to visit the Governor on Tuesday to ask for an early election. At the moment it doesn’t seem likely that anyone else could command the support of the House of Assembly, but it is possible the Governor may decide to not grant an election right away in the hope of finding a way to continue with a parliament that is not yet 15 months old.
If an early election is called, the earliest possible date is July 19.
I had been planning to prepare a Tasmanian state election guide once the federal election is over, but events have forced this plan to be accelerated, so I have now published my guide.
It is entirely free from the paywall and features results maps, results tables, history, geographic descriptions and lists of MPs. It will eventually includes lists of candidates too. You can see the front page of the guide here, or click through on the electorate links below:
For now I’m going to return to analysis of the federal election, but once the election is called I will of course put together a schedule for podcasts, and turn some attention back to the southernmost state.
Is Bridget Archer a possibility for a switch to state politics? Presumably she has the name recognition to do well.
Ben I’ve just further realised all of the pages have the bass map for the bottom one with the vote shares by booth etc.
Lots of examples of state and federal mps shifting to the other.
On Federal figures… alp landslide however the vote in the state election will not be that. The vote should show an improvement in the alp vote. How much is the question. Probable hung parliament
A lot of voters will be cranky ‘at politics’ after an unedifying week. A big part of how this one goes is who those voters decide to blame and reward for this parliament falling over. Will they move to the ‘others’ pile, or will they back whichever of the majors they see as stronger?
All three big parties trying to blame this on each other… it’s not a great look for any of them. Rockliff seemed the most convincing to me, and I’m not a Liberal voter.
Presumably the 3 JLNs will fall out of Parliament. Labor will lose Rebecca White’s personal vote in Lyons. The Libs will maybe get a Rockliff bonus in Braddon if people think he’s hard done by. You’d have to think Garland has a shot at retaining, but it migt depend on a primary swing to avoid cutup vagaries again. The Greens could presumably get anywhere between say 3 on a terrible day and 6 (up one in Braddon if Briggs runs again and they manage to get a bit of a swing) if everything goes right. I can’t see them getting the second in Franklin without time to build up a second candidate, although Carly Allen just did well in their weakest part of the seat and Nathan Volf might be keen to hop over the border, too. (Another reason why their lapse in Section 44 checking for the fed was a gigantic mistake.)
Big question is who can be convinced to run in a hurry. Bridget Archer, Peter George, Bryan Green, Stephen Parry, Marcus Vermey have all presumably had a lot of phone calls over the last few days. Even the Libs have chances for pickups if this backfires on Winter or they run the right people. Will Sue Hickey run again? (Go on Sue, do it.)
Back in 2010, a similar situation arose. The Governor was deeply involved in finding a way forward – but things did not go smoothly.
Anne Twomey later wrote a discussion paper of the ins and outs of such a thing:
“Appointing the Premier in a Hung Parliament – — The Tasmanian Governor’s Choice”
I dont know Tasmania well, but I know people leaving their party are not often re-elected and that former party loses in the polls.
So I see the 2 ex JLN in trouble. Most likely replaced by JLN unless that party is sullied by a fed and 2 state leaving.
I think JLN and Green will increase from those not wanting the stadium as well as major party ill will/
ALP might gain slightly.
I think ALP could take the 3rd Lib in Bass,
Then the last 2 spots in Braddon will be 2 or GRN. Possibly JLN. From here the ALP and Grn increase could put GRN ahead or Garland.
I cant see many other changes.
It appears that Tasmania’s election system is not designed to produce durable majority governments. As I have read, this will be the 4th election in 7 years. Local pain points appear to revolve mainly around the Macquarie Point Stadium venue, which has drawn heated opposition, the sale of public assets, and concerns about public spending. As it occasionally happens, many of these issues do not have a clear-cut partisan divide. Especially given the sizable number of crossbenchers. Somewhat unusually, the Labor leader refuses to form government with the Greens. I don’t know what’s going on there. Polling doesn’t seem to point to a clear winner in the election. Perhaps Labor picks up a few, but overall, no one is anywhere near a majority and is dependent on an ever-shifting group of crossbenchers.
JLN isn’t running right? I think Lambie has said she’ll support existing members (of which there is one) but won’t be running candidates en masse again.
JM that’s what I’ve seen yeah.
Winter has rejected the Greens’ offer of confidence and supply. I don’t know what his gambit here is, given Labor can’t win a majority. I suppose he’s either hoping to get enough gains that he can govern with independents without the Greens (unlikely), or just push the liberals further into minority? Doesn’t seem like a very good move either way.
Jm no she’s given up. She’s on her final term as a senator too. The Jln is going the way of the dodo
The stadium is all but certain to go ahead contracts have signed and at this point it would be an even bigger waste to not build it.
Assuming all independents hold their seats (elected as such in 2024, not ex-JLN) Labor’s only chance of forming government without the Greens goes like so:
Win all three JLN seats (Bass, Braddon, Lyons);
Win a third seat off the Libs in Franklin, or hope Peter George does;
Win another seat somewhere (off the second Green in Clark, or gain TWO seats somewhere – ie a 20% swing or more).
All that would get Labor + others to 18 seats. (Then comes the fun job of getting all the indies to agree with them, and each other.) And it all falls over if the Greens win a second seat off Lib #3 in Franklin, or one in Braddon.
Realistically if there’s a change of govt, it’ll be some kind of Labor-Green alliance, and everyone involved will just have to suck it up.
@Bird of Paradox – this is probably Labor’s hope. They know that the Greens will never support a Liberal government. If they have two paths to pass things in minority (or three including Liberals) that’s the best outcome they can hope for.
labor wont win all of the JLN seats the only one they have a shot at is Bass. The libs should easily win the Braddon JLN seat. i cant see labor winning more then 12 seats. at whcih point they need the greens. they cant win the Lyons seat either that will most likely be a jenner retain or go to another ind or minor party. without Whites vots i cant see their vote improving
John – for the Liberals to win 4 in Braddon they’d need to attract more ex-JLN votes than the Greens/Labor combined, and I’d expect Garland to also pick up a sizeable share. The Greens were only 0.1 quotas behind the 4th Lib (Giovanna Simpson) on exclusion. A small right-to-left swing would be enough to close that.
Braddon’s quite open but I’m looking at a 3-2-1-1 split there.
This leads me to think LIB 13, ALP 11, GRN 6, IND 5 overall.
Election Date July 19th.
I think Labor unwillingness to work with the cross bench will hurt them and many people will blame them for taking the state to an early election. Bridget Archer will likely return and could possibly be a future leader?
Still ud think 3 libs 2 Labor is a guarantee. Is Berwick contest as an ind she should win her seat on lib preferences or some other centre right candidate. That leaves the last spot between grns and garland even if the greens overtake the libs. So it would be a 4-3 split regardless
Based on the last election and assuming there isn’t a massive move against the govt. (People seem to have punished the federal ljbs) I can see the ALP winning a max of 11. The greens one at the expense of garland. And all 3 jln candidates being elected as inds. Plus Johnston obyrne and George.
LIBS 13-14
LABOR 10-11
GREENS 5-6
INDS Johnston, OBryne (maybe), George (maybe), Jenner(maybe) sff in Lyons instead of Jenner (maybe), Garland (maybe). Either way we will probably get something similar to last parliament just swap out a couple Labor members for those who retired.
Libs lucky to get 10. Labor 15. Greens 5 and the rest 5.
Labor to form a minority government…..
Based on @john’s predictions it will probably be a Labor majority
Pure gut feelings: all indies retain, all JLN seats lost.
Bass: JLN -1, ALP +1
Braddon: JLN -1, Grn +1. (Lib #4 also possible, but preference leakage makes that less likely.)
Clark: no change
Franklin: Lib -1, Peter George +1
Lyons: JLN -1, ALP +1
Total: Lib 13 (-1), ALP 12 (+2), Grn 6 (+1), Ind 4 (+1).
A similar mess to now. Maybe they’ll forget about 18 being the magic number and just try for a minority coalition (Labor plus indies, daring the Greens to vote it out).
Obviously subject to change if/when we get polling.
The massive swings towards Labor in Tasmania at last month’s federal election gave Tasmanian Labor the confidence of significantly increasing its representation in the House of Assembly at a looming state election and potentially governing without having to negotiate with the Greens. Considering this, it’s no wonder Winter would like a snap election rather than taking office with less than one third of the seats in the House of Assembly (HoA). However, there’s unlikely that Labor will win close to a majority of seats in the HoA in a state election held next month. Voters are more than capable of distinguishing between state and federal politics. The state of the major parties will also be dramatically different between the two elections.
At the federal election, the federal Labor government had governed well for three years and was competing against a Coalition Opposition that was deeply unpopular and palpably unfit to govern, while at the upcoming Tasmanian state election Tasmanian Labor is struggling to present an viable alternative to a tired but still not unpopular Liberal government. Federal Labor that is doing well in government has a greater ability to attract voters than Tasmanian state Labor that is struggling to present a credible alternative after 11 years in opposition.
Tasmanians have clearly got tired of the state Liberal government. The latest EMRS poll shows Liberal Party is currently trailing Labor 29-31 in primary votes, which is the worst for the Liberal Party since March 2004 when undecided figures previously allowed by EMRS were distributed. However, polling showing most of the lost Liberal support has gone to minor parties and independents rather than Labor.
Disgruntled Liberal voters are not switching to Labor in droves. There’s a good reason for this since Tasmanian Labor has struggled to present a credible alternative to the current Liberal Government. Labor has taken the same position as the Liberal Government on wedge issues like the stadium and salmon farming, and voted with the government against many crossbench motions scutinising the government. There’s no indication that Tasmanian Labor would get at the upcoming state election close to the 36.6% primary vote it got at the federal election. I expect the Labor primary vote at the upcoming state election to be lower than 36.6% because I expect many federal Labor voters could well end up voting for Greens or independents at the state election not only because of a greater choice of viable third-party candidates, but also because of an uninspiring state Labor Opposition that is struggling to present a credible alternative after 11 years in opposition.
At next month’s state election, Labor probably will win the most seats in the House of Assembly, but will not get close to a majority and may well need to negotiate with a larger crossbench to form government. Labor will probably form a minority government.
@Joseph – coming from someone less knowledgeable of local politics in Tas, that is an excellent analysis. The winner of the seat count could go either way, but neither major party is expected to do better than 13-14 at least as it looks at this point. Perhaps Labor will step out of the box during the campaign. Rockcliff could have stepped back and let someone else fight the election as Liberal leader, which very well may have allowed them to pick up a seat or two and all but ensured government. Now voters have a choice (for the moment) between a tired Liberal government and premier, or a lacklustre Labor party that may expect votes to flow their way simply because they are waiting for them. The Liberal Party, ironically, did a bit of that in the Federal election, perhaps their polling was erroneously indicating so. Still, any successful politician will tell you that you always have to have an attractive ask. That said, I was never a fan of Hare Clark for this very reason. I appreciate the value of preferential voting and even proportional representation, as it (in most cases) gives a broader representation of voices. However, the current process seems to spread votes out too much, so that without overwhelming support, the HoA begins to resemble France or Italy.
Bird of Paradox I agree generally, only things I might say is Bass and Lyons libs could win the JLN seat (not saying it couldn’t be Labor, just that it could also be libs), and in Clark Labor could pick up the Greens seat, although at this point I wouldn’t rate their chances, particularly given the Greens will attract a lot of the anti-stadium vote.
This could be cope talking, but I find it hard to see the Greens losing Clark #2 as well. Will indies like Hickey, Lohberger et al get organised in time to nominate – will the good burghers of Hobart who just voted ~27% Greens in the Senate really go anywhere other than the Greens when the majors are so aligned on the hot button issues that split the Greens and indies from the majors?
You’d have to think that Green MPs in Lyons and Bass could have done with more time to embed themselves in their seats, though, having both won with under a quota for the party on primaries.
Josh okay if they voted 27% for greens senate at a federal level, then yeah I’d say it’s fairly safe. I was just going based on the national trend that was somewhat against the greens, I didn’t actually look at Tasmania- or Hobart- specific results. I’d almost say the Greens might even do better than that at a state level, given the different issues, although a third seat would be very far away.
clark will be 2-2-2 and johnston
If ALP change their stance on working with Green and IND except just IND, how will their vote change?
Best case scenario I think ALP will need one Green to pass supply.