Incumbent MPs
- Eric Abetz (Liberal), since 2024.
- Meg Brown (Labor), since 2024.
- David O’Byrne (Independent), since 2018. Previously 2010–2014.
- Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal), since 2024. Previously 2010-2022.
- Nic Street (Liberal), since 2020. Previously 2016–2018.
- Dean Winter (Labor), since 2021.
- Rosalie Woodruff (Greens), since 2015.
Geography
Franklin covers the southern parts of Tasmania and the eastern suburbs of Hobart. The seat is divided into two parts, with each covering half of the voters in the electorate. Half live on the eastern shore of the Derwent River in Clarence and Brighton LGAs, while the other half lives to the south and west of Hobart in Kingborough and Huon Valley LGAs.
History
Franklin was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Franklin has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.
Six-member electorates tended to result in 3-3 splits between the major parties, even when one party received substantially more votes than the other party, producing many hung parliaments and slim majorities.
The ALP didn’t manage to win a majority of Franklin’s seats for almost thirty years. The Anti-Socialist Party won a 4-2 majority in 1909, and then the ALP and the Liberal/Nationalist party each won 3 seats at the 1912, 1913, 1916 and 1919.
The Country Party contested the Tasmanian election in 1922, the only time the party won seats in the House of Assembly. They won five seats, including one in Franklin, which they took from the ALP, while the Nationalists held their three seats and the ALP two.
The Lyons Labor government won a majority in the 1925 election, including three seats in Franklin, while the Liberals were reduced to one seat, alongside two independents.
The 1928 election saw the Nationalists win three seats in every district, and the ALP won three seats in all other districts. The only exception was Franklin, where the ALP lost their third seat to an independent, producing a 15-14-1 breakdown in the House of Assembly.
The 1931 election saw Franklin’s numbers maintained, while the Nationalists won a fourth seat at the expense of the ALP in every other district.
The 3-2-1 split was reversed in 1934, with the ALP winning back a third seat off the Nationalists. The ALP finally won a 4-2 majority in Franklin in 1937, and again in 1941, although the fourth ALP seat was lost to an independent at the 1946 and 1948 elections.
Franklin elected three Liberals and three Labor MPs at the 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections, which led to the number of seats per district increased to seven in 1959, allowing for more decisive results.
The Liberal Party won a fourth seat at the 1959 election, with the ALP maintaining their three seats. The ALP won a 4-3 majority at the 1964, 1969, 1972, 1976 and 1979 elections.
At the 1982 election, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won three seats. The seventh seat was held by former Labor premier Doug Lowe, who had moved to the crossbenches upon his removal as Premier in 1981.
The 1986 election saw the ALP lose their third seat for the first time since 1931. The Liberal Party won four seats and the ALP two. The seventh seat was won by Green independent Gerry Bates, who joined Bob Brown in Denison.
The 1989 election saw the ALP win back its third seat off the Liberal Party and Bates re-elected, producing a 3-3-1 split, which was maintained in 1992. In 1996 the ALP and the Greens maintained their seats, but the Liberal Party lost their third seat to Bruce Goodluck, a former Liberal federal MP for Franklin from 1975 to 1993. Goodluck won a seat in the state parliament as an independent.
The size of the House of Assembly was cut to twenty-five, and two of Franklin’s seats were abolished. Greens MP Mike Foley lost his seat and independent Bruce Goodluck retired, while the major parties retained their seats; three for the ALP and two for the Liberal Party.
At the 2002 election, the Liberal Party lost one of their two seats to the Greens, with Franklin electing three Labor MPs along with new MPs Will Hodgman (LIB) and Nick McKim (GRN), both of whom went on to lead their parties.
At the 2006 election, the numbers were maintained at 3-1-1. Nick McKim was reelected comfortably with just short of a quota, while Hodgman and then-Premier Paul Lennon each won quotas in their own right. Lara Giddings (ALP) was also re-elected, and Paula Wreidt squeezed in to the last seat, beating Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin by about 1000 votes.
At the 2010 election, the ALP lost its third seat to the Liberal Party. Three MPs (Giddings, Hodgman and McKim) were re-elected. The other two seats were held by Labor MPs who had filled casual vacancies in the previous term and had never won election in their own right. Both Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme lost their seats, to the ALP’s David O’Byrne and the Liberal Party’s Jacquie Petrusma.
The Liberal Party gained a third seat from Labor in 2014, with David O’Byrne losing to Paul Harriss.
The third Liberal seat was lost in 2018, with Labor regaining their second seat and the Greens holding their one seat. This result was repeated in 2021.
The number of seats in the electorate of Franklin increased from five to seven in 2024. The Liberal Party won a third seat, and ex-Labor independent David O’Byrne was re-elected in addition to Labor again winning two seats.
Assessment
O’Byrne and the Greens are in a strong position to retain their seats. Labor would be hoping to win a third seat off the Liberal Party. Peter George is worth watching as a possible independent contender.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Quota | Swing |
| Eric Abetz | 6,661 | 9.2 | 0.7396 | |
| Jacquie Petrusma | 6,093 | 8.5 | 0.6765 | |
| Nic Street | 4,811 | 6.7 | 0.5342 | |
| Dean Young | 3,078 | 4.3 | 0.3418 | |
| Jock Mcgregor | 1,463 | 2.0 | 0.1624 | |
| Aldo Antolli | 1,449 | 2.0 | 0.1609 | |
| Josh Garvin | 972 | 1.3 | 0.1079 | |
| Liberal Party | 24,527 | 34.0 | 2.7234 | -8.2 |
| Dean Winter | 8,055 | 11.2 | 0.8944 | |
| Meg Brown | 3,613 | 5.0 | 0.4012 | |
| Toby Thorpe | 2,908 | 4.0 | 0.3229 | |
| Kaspar Deane | 1,808 | 2.5 | 0.2008 | |
| Ebony Altimira | 1,736 | 2.4 | 0.1928 | |
| Simon Bailey | 946 | 1.3 | 0.1050 | |
| Philip Pregnell | 613 | 0.9 | 0.0681 | |
| Australian Labor Party | 19,679 | 27.3 | 2.1851 | -5.9 |
| Rosalie Woodruff | 9,876 | 13.7 | 1.0966 | |
| Jade Darko | 1,010 | 1.4 | 0.1121 | |
| Christine Campbell | 810 | 1.1 | 0.0899 | |
| Gideon Cordover | 778 | 1.1 | 0.0864 | |
| Jenny Cambers-Smith | 762 | 1.1 | 0.0846 | |
| Owen Fitzgerald | 614 | 0.9 | 0.0682 | |
| Lukas Mrosek | 412 | 0.6 | 0.0457 | |
| Tasmanian Greens | 14,262 | 19.8 | 1.5836 | +0.8 |
| David O’Byrne | 6,312 | 8.8 | 0.7009 | -2.1 |
| Chris Hannan | 1,418 | 2.0 | 0.1575 | |
| Marshall Callaghan | 1,063 | 1.5 | 0.1180 | |
| Conor Hallahan | 1,025 | 1.4 | 0.1138 | |
| Jacqui Lambie Network | 3,506 | 4.9 | 0.3893 | +4.9 |
| Clare Glade-Wright | 1,154 | 1.6 | 0.1281 | +1.6 |
| Jehni Thomas-Wurth | 1,122 | 1.6 | 0.1246 | |
| Animal Justice Party | 1,122 | 1.6 | 0.1246 | -0.2 |
| Tony Mulder | 597 | 0.8 | 0.0663 | +0.8 |
| Martine Delaney | 552 | 0.8 | 0.0613 | |
| Local Network | 552 | 0.8 | 0.0613 | +0.8 |
| Bob Elliston | 186 | 0.3 | 0.0207 | |
| Tamar Cordover | 144 | 0.2 | 0.0160 | |
| Total Others | 330 | 0.5 | 0.0366 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 4,115 | 5.4 |
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff polled over a quota in her own right, and no other candidate reached such a level. Dean Winter, not yet the Labor leader, later won the second seat.
Let’s fast forward until there are 10 candidates competing for the last five seats:
- David O’Byrne (IND) – 0.853 quotas
- Eric Abetz (LIB) – 0.843
- Jacquie Petrusma (LIB) – 0.837
- Meg Brown (ALP) – 0.696
- Nic Street (LIB) – 0.692
- Toby Thorpe (ALP) – 0.546
- Chris Hannan (JLN) – 0.438
- Dean Young (LIB) – 0.423
- Jade Darko (GRN) – 0.344
- Gideon Cordover (GRN) – 0.310
Cordover’s preferences pushed Darko up closer to the lead:
- O’Byrne (IND) – 0.865
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.846
- Petrusma (LIB) – 0.840
- Brown (ALP) – 0.709
- Street (LIB) – 0.694
- Darko (GRN) – 0.587
- Thorpe (ALP) – 0.560
- Hannan (JLN) – 0.448
- Young (LIB) – 0.424
Dean Young’s preferences particularly favoured Petrusma, but also pushed Abetz over 0.9 of a quota.
- Petrusma (LIB) – 0.990
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.908
- O’Byrne (IND) – 0.883
- Street (LIB) – 0.868
- Brown (ALP) – 0.714
- Darko (GRN) – 0.590
- Thorpe (ALP) – 0.566
- Hannan (JLN) – 0.453
JLN preferences scattered, but were enough to push Petrusma over quota and bring O’Byrne close.
- Petrusma (LIB) – 1.028
- O’Byrne (IND) – 0.993
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.932
- Street (LIB) – 0.891
- Brown (ALP) – 0.776
- Darko (GRN) – 0.657
- Thorpe (ALP) – 0.625
Petrusma’s surplus didn’t do much:
- O’Byrne (IND) – 0.995
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.938
- Street (LIB) – 0.899
- Brown (ALP) – 0.778
- Darko (GRN) – 0.658
- Thorpe (ALP) – 0.626
Thorpe’s preferences elected Brown and O’Byrne to the fourth and fifth seats:
- Brown (ALP) – 1.199
- O’Byrne (IND) – 1.046
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.949
- Street (LIB) – 0.920
- Darko (GRN) – 0.706
The Brown and O’Byrne surpluses favoured Darko but they were too far behind to win. Abetz and Street won the last two seats.
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.959
- Street (LIB) – 0.940
- Darko (GRN) – 0.766
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries: Clarence, to the east of Hobart; Kingborough to the south of Hobart; and Huon Valley in the south-west. While Huon Valley covers a large area stretching to the south-western corner of Tasmania, all of the polling places lay at the eastern edge of the council area.
The Liberal Party vote ranged from 32.5% in Kingborough and Huon Valley to 33.5% in Clarence.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 24.8% in Huon Valley to 29% in Clarence.
The Greens did much better in the west, with 24.4% in Huon Valley and 24.6% in Kingborough, compared to 17.5% in Clarence.
David O’Byrne did much better in Clarence, with 10.6%, compared to 6-7% in Kingborough and Huon Valley.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | O’Byrne | Total votes | % of votes |
| Clarence | 33.5 | 29.0 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 24,468 | 34.0 |
| Kingborough | 32.5 | 26.1 | 24.6 | 6.1 | 12,595 | 17.5 |
| Huon Valley | 32.5 | 24.8 | 24.4 | 6.9 | 8,370 | 11.6 |
| Pre-poll | 37.1 | 27.3 | 17.3 | 9.2 | 16,440 | 22.8 |
| Other votes | 33.6 | 26.9 | 19.6 | 8.5 | 10,168 | 14.1 |
Election results in Franklin at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Greens and independent candidate David O’Byrne.
Any idea if George is planning on contesting? If his vote at the federal election holds up, he’d be a shoe-in, and might even be able to get a second candidate up if he so chooses.
Also Ben the last map here is of Bass instead of Franklin.
George won’t get close to the vote share he had federally should he contest since he will be running against the Greens this time. He has good chances but it’s not a guarantee by any stretch.
Hare-Clark also means candidates on the same ticket can’t just get up by having one popular candidate – they need to earn votes in their own right. So even if George were to have a lot of votes it doesn’t mean electing a second candidate.
I think George would have a very good shot, and I think if he runs the Greens get Rosalie back in no problem too as long as there isn’t also a strong anti-Green swing. I was kind of amazed by the Greens keeping 10% of the vote at the fed even though they stopped campaigning and endorsed George, the base Green vote is solid here and Rosalie being the lead candidate will help.
Assuming O’Byrne gets back in (any sense of whether he will? I’d say he’s come out of the last year fairly well but who knows how his voters feel) that leaves 4 seats for the majors – which could presumably go 3-1 Lib-Lab, or 2-2 at a pinch and Nic Street gets the boot.
Adda yes but as Josh says the Greens managed 10% even without really running, in addition to his 20, so I’d say quite likely that vote splits some way that gets both of them a seat. And while Hare-Clark does that to some extent, I’d imagine (I might be wrong on this, but this is how I’d imagine voters would act) most voters would number down the ballot paper in columns, maybe switching around for a particular individual but mostly still voting within parties.