Lyons – Tasmania 2025

Incumbent MPs

  • Tabatha Badger (Greens), since 2024.
  • Guy Barnett (Liberal), since 2014.
  • Jen Butler (Labor), since 2018.
  • Casey Farrell (Labor), since 2025.1
  • Jane Howlett (Liberal), since 2024.
  • Andrew Jenner (Jacqui Lambie Network), since 2024.
  • Mark Shelton (Liberal), since 2010.

1Farrell filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Rebecca White in February 2025.

Geography
Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.

History
Lyons was first created for the 1986 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Lyons. This replaced the seat of Wilmot, which had previously covered central Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

Wilmot tended to favour conservative parties, and the conservative parties held the district by a 4-2 margin for the first five elections under proportional representation. At the 1922 election, the Nationalists lost two of their four seats to the Country Party.

In 1925, the ALP won a third seat for the first time, while the other Country Party seat was won by an independent. The major parties each won three seats in 1928, before the Nationalists returned to a 4-2 majority in 1931. The fourth Nationalist seat was lost to an independent in 1934, and Wilmot produced a 3-3 split in 1937. The ALP won a 4-2 majority once only, in 1941, before Wilmot reverted to a 3-3 split between the ALP and the Liberal Party at the 1946, 1948, 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections.

When a seventh seat was added in 1959, the ALP won a fourth seat. The Liberals and ALP maintained at least three seats each from 1959 until 1989, with the major parties competing over the seventh seat. The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959, 1964, 1972, 1976 and 1979, with the Liberals winning four seats in 1969, 1982 and the renamed seat of Lyons in 1986.

The 1989 election saw the ALP lose their third seat to independent Green Christine Milne. This 4-2-1 split was maintained in 1992. As part of the swing away from the Liberal government in 1996, the ALP regained its third seat off the Liberals.

The reduction in numbers in Lyons in 1998 saw Milne’s seat and one of the three Liberal seats eliminated, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP. The 2002 election saw the Liberals lose yet another seat to Greens candidate Tim Morris. The ALP won three seats, alongside one Green and two Liberals. This result was maintained in 2006.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party. Labor MPs David Llewellyn and Heather Butler both lost their seats, which went to the ALP’s Rebecca White and the Liberal Party’s Mark Shelton.

The Liberal Party gained a third seat in 2014 off the Greens, with Tim Morris losing his seat after twelve years in parliament. This result was repeated in 2018 and 2021.

Lyons gained two extra seats in 2024 for a total of seven. The Liberal Party retained their three seats, and the ALP retained their two seats. The Greens regained a seat, and the Jacqui Lambie Network’s Andrew Jenner gained the other new seat.

Jenner is the sole member of the JLN to stay with the party after his two party colleagues became independents. Jenner supported the government with the other JLN members at the start of the term but ceased to support the government when the party broke apart.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor will suffer from the loss of Rebecca White’s personal vote, but it is also very unclear how much of a vote Andrew Jenner will have built up after just a year as a sitting MP.

2024 result

Candidate Votes % Quota Swing
Guy Barnett 8,252 11.1 0.8914
Jane Howlett 6,843 9.2 0.7392
Mark Shelton 5,184 7.0 0.5600
Stephanie Cameron 2,865 3.9 0.3095
Richard Hallett 1,867 2.5 0.2017
Justin Derksen 1,483 2.0 0.1602
Gregory Brown 1,353 1.8 0.1462
Liberal Party 27,847 37.6 3.0082 -13.6
Rebecca White 15,607 21.1 1.6860
Jen Butler 2,363 3.2 0.2553
Richard Goss 1,790 2.4 0.1934
Ben Dudman 1,491 2.0 0.1611
Casey Farrell 1,182 1.6 0.1277
Edwin Batt 1,063 1.4 0.1148
Carole Mcqueeney 780 1.1 0.0843
Australian Labor Party 24,276 32.8 2.6224 +0.2
Tabatha Badger 4,044 5.5 0.4369
Hannah Rubenach-Quinn 1,117 1.5 0.1207
Craig Brown 741 1.0 0.0800
Alistair Allan 620 0.8 0.0670
Glenn Millar 520 0.7 0.0562
Mitch Houghton 516 0.7 0.0557
Gary Whisson 489 0.7 0.0528
Tasmanian Greens 8,047 10.9 0.8693 +2.0
Andrew Jenner 2,177 2.9 0.2352
Troy Pfitzner 2,127 2.9 0.2298
Lesley Pyecroft 1,841 2.5 0.1989
Jacqui Lambie Network 6,145 8.3 0.6638 +8.3
Ray Williams 953 1.3 0.1029
Shane Broadby 755 1.0 0.0816
Phillip Bigg 715 1.0 0.0772
Carlo Di Falco 599 0.8 0.0647
Wayne Turale 511 0.7 0.0552
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 3,533 4.8 0.3817 +0.3
John Tucker 2,309 3.1 0.2494 -3.4
Anna Megan Gralton 1,213 1.6 0.1310
Animal Justice Party 1,213 1.6 0.1310 +1.6
Angela Offord 214 0.3 0.0231 +0.3
Loueen (Lou) Triffitt 175 0.2 0.0189
Andrew Roberts 130 0.2 0.0140
Jenny Branch-Allen 92 0.1 0.0099
Fraser Miller 70 0.1 0.0076
Total Others 467 0.6 0.0504 +0.6
Informal 5,769 7.2

Preference flows
Then-Labor leader Rebecca White polled a full quota in her own right.

Let’s move on to later in the count after White and Liberal MP Guy Barnett have been elected, with ten candidates competing for the last five seats:

  • Jane Howlett (LIB) – 0.997 quotas
  • Tabatha Badger (GRN) – 0.873
  • Jen Butler (ALP) – 0.792
  • Mark Shelton (LIB) – 0.718
  • Stephanie Cameron (LIB) – 0.460
  • Andrew Jenner (JLN) – 0.454
  • Troy Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.428
  • Richard Goss (ALP) – 0.423
  • Ray Williams (SFF) – 0.412
  • Ben Dudman (ALP) – 0.391

Dudman’s preferences mostly flowed to his fellow Labor candidates, pushing Butler close to a quota, but did just narrowly push Howlett over quota without much of a surplus:

  • Howlett (LIB) – 1.000
  • Butler (ALP) – 0.988
  • Badger (GRN) – 0.890
  • Shelton (LIB) – 0.724
  • Goss (ALP) – 0.549
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.465
  • Jenner (JLN) – 0.465
  • Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.440
  • Williams (SFF) – 0.419

SFF preferences flowed strongest to JLN and Liberal but they were enough to push Butler over quota for the fourth seat:

  • Butler (ALP) – 1.022
  • Badger (GRN) – 0.904
  • Shelton (LIB) – 0.782
  • Goss (ALP) – 0.577
  • Jenner (JLN) – 0.521
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.505
  • Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.498

The small Butler surplus mostly favoured the last remaining Labor candidate:

  • Badger (GRN) – 0.905
  • Shelton (LIB) – 0.783
  • Goss (ALP) – 0.587
  • Jenner (JLN) – 0.521
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.505
  • Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.499

The exclusion of the second JLN candidate strongly favoured his one remaining colleague:

  • Badger (GRN) – 0.919
  • Jenner (JLN) – 0.911
  • Shelton (LIB) – 0.798
  • Goss (ALP) – 0.607
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.515

Cameron’s preferences strongly favoured Shelton, pushing him well over quota for the fifth seat. By this point Jenner and Badger were clear of Goss for the last two seats.

  • Shelton (LIB) – 1.221
  • Jenner (JLN) – 0.932
  • Badger (GRN) – 0.928
  • Goss (ALP) – 0.620

Most of Shelton’s surplus exhausted, with JLN winning the sixth seat and the Greens winning the seventh, almost 0.3 quota ahead of Labor.

  • Jenner (JLN) – 0.966
  • Badger (GRN) – 0.934
  • Goss (ALP) – 0.638

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. Lyons covers all or part of twelve council areas, and these council boundaries have been used to divide booths into three areas.

  • Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands, Southern Midlands.
  • North – Kentish, Meander Valley.
  • South – Brighton, Clarence, Derwent Valley, Sorell, Tasman.

The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in two out of three areas, with 39% in the centre and 43.4% in the north. They polled 33.7% in the south.

The Labor vote ranged from 26.7% in the north to 36.8% in the south.

The Greens came third with a primary vote ranging from 9.2% in the centre to 12.6% in the south.

The JLN had a vote ranging from 7.6% in the south to 9.3% in the north.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % JLN % Total votes % of votes
South 33.7 36.8 12.6 7.6 21,686 29.3
Central 39.0 31.7 9.2 8.0 15,278 20.6
North 43.4 26.7 10.7 9.3 10,797 14.6
Pre-poll 38.4 32.0 9.9 8.9 13,715 18.5
Other votes 36.7 33.2 11.1 8.3 12,575 17.0

Election results in Lyons at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network.

Become a Patron!

17 COMMENTS

  1. The majors have each lost one of their big vote getters, in Rebecca White and Jane Howlett. This might help Labor theoretically by spreading their vote between a few candidates.

    Amazing that even with White running up the score here, Labor could only manage 2/7 seats last year. With JLN out of the running and no prominent indies in the mix you’d have to imagine they could get up to 3… but it’s not great turf for state Labor here unless the swing is swinging.

  2. Hang on, I tell an obvious lie – Howlett’s switch was in the other direction, from the LC to the LA.

  6. Jenner has stated that he will not be running as a JLN candidate because JLN is not endorsing any candidates at future state elections. It’s unclear if he is planning to run as an independent or anything else.

    I don’t think he’d have trouble getting re-elected as JLN but may have more trouble as an independent? Hard to say

  8. Likely 3 Lib 2 lab 1 grn 1 other likely Jenner as he will have lambie support. But sffcould be an outside chance. Maybe laborcould win one more but I don’t see how they win more seats.

  9. @Ben – Incumbent MPs – Footnote 1 – the official resignation of Rebecca White was Feb 2025, not Aug 2022.
    Also – under ‘History’ – second last paragraph – it should read ‘Liberals retained their THREE seats’ not two.

  10. The FontCast podcast had 3LIB, 2-3 ALP, 1 GRN, 0-1 NATS with 0 Jenner. Now that both Tucker and Jenner are seeking Nationals Pre-selection, I’ll give the NATS 1 here. Rebecca White now Federal will hurt ALP here, counter-balanced now Brian Mitchell is running here. Still give ALP 2, as Brian might take Casey’s seat (not enough time for profile) but they might peel that 3rd off Lib if the swing is on. Angela Offord is apparently running and was an independent at the Federal Election, only scoring 3.2% of the vote, so don’t see her as a realistic chance here.

    My initial assessment: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 NAT

  11. If Jacqui Lambie decided to endorse Andrew Jenner as her only candidate for the TAS election, I would’ve been comfortable in predicting that he would retain his seat considering that he was voted due to his association with the JLN. Unless I’m informed about any large personal popularity he has gathered from 2024 to now, I don’t feel confident he gets reelected. The National party brand is pretty weak in TAS compared to JLN.

    Ik Tucker’s seeking to run as a National candidate too, but considering he failed to be elected in his own right as an independent, idk how he could be elected as a Nationals MP, considering the party’s lack of presence in TAS. At least Andrew Jenner has incumbency (which gives him the edge over Tucker)

    Also on an off note, if the Nationals do win seats in TAS, would they act like a de facto independent (e.g., like Sharkie or Katter), act like WA Nationals (close collaboration with Liberals but not in formal coalition) or play second fiddle to the Liberals like everywhere else?

  12. Lurking Westie, the Nationals if winning a seat or two in Tasmania might be more of an independent type of party similar to the SA Nationals when Karlene Maywald was MP for Chaffey. She was mostly independent and even served as a Minister under Labor Premier Mike Rann.

    Former JLN Senator Steve Martin joined the Tasmanian Nationals and ran under their banner for the 2019 federal election, but didn’t manage to win.

  13. Liberal Ticket:
    – Guy Barnett
    – Jane Howlett
    – Mark Shelton
    – Steph Cameron
    – Richard Hallett
    – Poppy Lyne
    – Bree Groves

    Thinking 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 tossup.

  14. 3 LIB 3 ALP 1 GRN with the fairly decent chance of the Nats picking up a seat at the expense of either major party here

  15. Nationals have never done well in Tasmania because the Liberals are really Nationals but some how picked up the Liberal name along the way. And this goes a long way back. When Joh for PM was up and running in the 1980s, then Liberal Premier – Robin Grey – supported Sir Joh over one John Howard.

    The demographics of Tasmania outside of Hobart are more akin to National held seats at a federal and state level. Older, whiter, more Christian, more pro-gun ownership, less educated, involved in farming or extractive industries (mining and fishing). So it is a bit surprising that the Nationals haven’t done better in the past.

    But this time might just be different. Nats are running on a platform similar to the Libs but with the big difference being the Stadium. Also there are no one Nation or JLN running and indeed the Nats look to have picked up the ex-JLN members which might give an incumbency boost.

    If the Nats can win a seat, then they build out and due to Hare-Clarke will probably hold 3 seats indefinitely, which leads to a Senator for Tasmania over the mid-term (probably at the expense of Libs but perhaps Labor).

    One to watch.

  16. Agree with James here. 3 lib 2 lab 1 grn last seat as a Toss-up between Jenner Labor and maybe the shooters as a protest vote.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here