Lyons – Tasmania 2025

The majors have each lost one of their big vote getters, in Rebecca White and Jane Howlett. This might help Labor theoretically by spreading their vote between a few candidates.

Amazing that even with White running up the score here, Labor could only manage 2/7 seats last year. With JLN out of the running and no prominent indies in the mix you’d have to imagine they could get up to 3… but it’s not great turf for state Labor here unless the swing is swinging.

Hang on, I tell an obvious lie – Howlett’s switch was in the other direction, from the LC to the LA.

If JLN is not running what will Jenner run on?

Jacqui said she will still support him

@ Ben
This page has been incorrectly named-Should by Lyons Tasmania

Jenner has stated that he will not be running as a JLN candidate because JLN is not endorsing any candidates at future state elections. It’s unclear if he is planning to run as an independent or anything else.

I don’t think he’d have trouble getting re-elected as JLN but may have more trouble as an independent? Hard to say

Thanks, page title fixed.

Likely 3 Lib 2 lab 1 grn 1 other likely Jenner as he will have lambie support. But sffcould be an outside chance. Maybe laborcould win one more but I don’t see how they win more seats.

@Ben – Incumbent MPs – Footnote 1 – the official resignation of Rebecca White was Feb 2025, not Aug 2022.
Also – under ‘History’ – second last paragraph – it should read ‘Liberals retained their THREE seats’ not two.

The FontCast podcast had 3LIB, 2-3 ALP, 1 GRN, 0-1 NATS with 0 Jenner. Now that both Tucker and Jenner are seeking Nationals Pre-selection, I’ll give the NATS 1 here. Rebecca White now Federal will hurt ALP here, counter-balanced now Brian Mitchell is running here. Still give ALP 2, as Brian might take Casey’s seat (not enough time for profile) but they might peel that 3rd off Lib if the swing is on. Angela Offord is apparently running and was an independent at the Federal Election, only scoring 3.2% of the vote, so don’t see her as a realistic chance here.

My initial assessment: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 NAT

If Jacqui Lambie decided to endorse Andrew Jenner as her only candidate for the TAS election, I would’ve been comfortable in predicting that he would retain his seat considering that he was voted due to his association with the JLN. Unless I’m informed about any large personal popularity he has gathered from 2024 to now, I don’t feel confident he gets reelected. The National party brand is pretty weak in TAS compared to JLN.

Ik Tucker’s seeking to run as a National candidate too, but considering he failed to be elected in his own right as an independent, idk how he could be elected as a Nationals MP, considering the party’s lack of presence in TAS. At least Andrew Jenner has incumbency (which gives him the edge over Tucker)

Also on an off note, if the Nationals do win seats in TAS, would they act like a de facto independent (e.g., like Sharkie or Katter), act like WA Nationals (close collaboration with Liberals but not in formal coalition) or play second fiddle to the Liberals like everywhere else?

Lurking Westie, the Nationals if winning a seat or two in Tasmania might be more of an independent type of party similar to the SA Nationals when Karlene Maywald was MP for Chaffey. She was mostly independent and even served as a Minister under Labor Premier Mike Rann.

Former JLN Senator Steve Martin joined the Tasmanian Nationals and ran under their banner for the 2019 federal election, but didn’t manage to win.

Liberal Ticket:
– Guy Barnett
– Jane Howlett
– Mark Shelton
– Steph Cameron
– Richard Hallett
– Poppy Lyne
– Bree Groves

Thinking 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 tossup.

3 LIB 3 ALP 1 GRN with the fairly decent chance of the Nats picking up a seat at the expense of either major party here

Nationals have never done well in Tasmania because the Liberals are really Nationals but some how picked up the Liberal name along the way. And this goes a long way back. When Joh for PM was up and running in the 1980s, then Liberal Premier – Robin Grey – supported Sir Joh over one John Howard.

The demographics of Tasmania outside of Hobart are more akin to National held seats at a federal and state level. Older, whiter, more Christian, more pro-gun ownership, less educated, involved in farming or extractive industries (mining and fishing). So it is a bit surprising that the Nationals haven’t done better in the past.

But this time might just be different. Nats are running on a platform similar to the Libs but with the big difference being the Stadium. Also there are no one Nation or JLN running and indeed the Nats look to have picked up the ex-JLN members which might give an incumbency boost.

If the Nats can win a seat, then they build out and due to Hare-Clarke will probably hold 3 seats indefinitely, which leads to a Senator for Tasmania over the mid-term (probably at the expense of Libs but perhaps Labor).

One to watch.

Agree with James here. 3 lib 2 lab 1 grn last seat as a Toss-up between Jenner Labor and maybe the shooters as a protest vote.

If the Nats win a few seat, might they join the Liberals at state or federal level?

One of the more interesting contests. I don’t imagine Rockliff will be too happy if Jenner is elected as a Nat. Labor will be without Rebecca White strong personal vote. So that could spread out her vote and throw out totally different mps from the current 2 though you’d think if Farrell could win the countback from behind Goss a good chance.

I’d say 2 Lab 2 lib 1 grn last 2 spots could be a 5 way contest between Lib Nat lab sff and an ind. But youd expect 1 left 1 right. Jenner would have the upper hand on the nat ticket if 1 were to get up.

I’m getting the sense that it’s a near toss-up between Jenner and Tucker as far as who would get the Nats seat should they poll well enough, 6.2% just ahead of SFF in today’s Demos Au poll…

I’m gonna say 3 lib 2 lab 1 grn 1 nat, although wouldn’t fully discount SFF.

I think 2 Lib (Howlett and Barnett) 2 Lab (Butler and Mitchell) 1 Green 1 Nat (Tucker probably) … final seat Lib (Shelton) vs SFF

3 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 tossup Tucker v Di Falco. But I could be wrong in any direction. I think I’m most interested to see this seat

im saying 2 lib 2 lab 1 grn probly offord and the last seat to be a tossup between lib nat and sff

Interesting John what makes you say Offord? Apart from that one poll which had her on 6%, I don’t see why she’d be a favourite.

it will be an ind of some description. the ind vote plus the excess grn vote should be enough to get one ind up. theres probably only enough centre right vote o get 3 libs or 2 libs and a nat at best maybe the sff

I see the Liberals winning three and Labor two. The other two seats are anyone’s guess.
At this stage, I feel that Labor might win an extra seat, but White’s departure to Federal politics robs Labor of quite a drawcard here. The last seat could go anywhere.

3 lib 2 lab 1 grn the last seat a toss-up between nats and off. Either way Jenner is gone and the libs have abetter ally most ljkely