Lyons – Australia 2025

Incumbent MPs

• Tabatha Badger (Greens), since 2024.
• Guy Barnett (Liberal), since 2014.
• Jen Butler (Labor), since 2018.
• Casey Farrell (Labor), since 2025.¹
• Jane Howlett (Liberal), since 2024.
• Andrew Jenner (Jacqui Lambie Network), since 2024.
• Mark Shelton (Liberal), since 2010.

¹Farrell filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Rebecca White in August 2022.

• Geography
• History
• Candidates
• Assessment
• 2024 result
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography
Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.

History
Lyons was first created for the 1986 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Lyons. This replaced the seat of Wilmot, which had previously covered central Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

Wilmot tended to favour conservative parties, and the conservative parties held the district by a 4-2 margin for the first five elections under proportional representation. At the 1922 election, the Nationalists lost two of their four seats to the Country Party.

In 1925, the ALP won a third seat for the first time, while the other Country Party seat was won by an independent. The major parties each won three seats in 1928, before the Nationalists returned to a 4-2 majority in 1931. The fourth Nationalist seat was lost to an independent in 1934, and Wilmot produced a 3-3 split in 1937. The ALP won a 4-2 majority once only, in 1941, before Wilmot reverted to a 3-3 split between the ALP and the Liberal Party at the 1946, 1948, 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections.

When a seventh seat was added in 1959, the ALP won a fourth seat. The Liberals and ALP maintained at least three seats each from 1959 until 1989, with the major parties competing over the seventh seat. The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959, 1964, 1972, 1976 and 1979, with the Liberals winning four seats in 1969, 1982 and the renamed seat of Lyons in 1986.

The 1989 election saw the ALP lose their third seat to independent Green Christine Milne. This 4-2-1 split was maintained in 1992. As part of the swing away from the Liberal government in 1996, the ALP regained its third seat off the Liberals.

The reduction in numbers in Lyons in 1998 saw Milne’s seat and one of the three Liberal seats eliminated, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP. The 2002 election saw the Liberals lose yet another seat to Greens candidate Tim Morris. The ALP won three seats, alongside one Green and two Liberals. This result was maintained in 2006.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party. Labor MPs David Llewellyn and Heather Butler both lost their seats, which went to the ALP’s Rebecca White and the Liberal Party’s Mark Shelton.

The Liberal Party gained a third seat in 2014 off the Greens, with Tim Morris losing his seat after twelve years in parliament. This result was repeated in 2018 and 2021.

Lyons gained two extra seats in 2024 for a total of seven. The Liberal Party retained their two seats, and the ALP retained their two seats. The Greens regained a seat, and the Jacqui Lambie Network’s Andrew Jenner gained the other new seat.

Jenner is the sole member of the JLN to stay with the party after his two party colleagues became independents. Jenner supported the government with the other JLN members at the start of the term but ceased to support the government when the party broke apart.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
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2024 result

Preference flows
Then-Labor leader Rebecca White polled a full quota in her own right.

Let’s move on to later in the count after White and Liberal MP Guy Barnett have been elected, with ten candidates competing for the last five seats:

• Jane Howlett (LIB) – 0.997 quotas
• Tabatha Badger (GRN) – 0.873
• Jen Butler (ALP) – 0.792
• Mark Shelton (LIB) – 0.718
• Stephanie Cameron (LIB) – 0.460
• Andrew Jenner (JLN) – 0.454
• Troy Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.428
• Richard Goss (ALP) – 0.423
• Ray Williams (SFF) – 0.412
• Ben Dudman (ALP) – 0.391

Dudman’s preferences mostly flowed to his fellow Labor candidates, pushing Butler close to a quota, but did just narrowly push Howlett over quota without much of a surplus:

• Howlett (LIB) – 1.000
• Butler (ALP) – 0.988
• Badger (GRN) – 0.890
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.724
• Goss (ALP) – 0.549
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.465
• Jenner (JLN) – 0.465
• Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.440
• Williams (SFF) – 0.419

SFF preferences flowed strongest to JLN and Liberal but they were enough to push Butler over quota for the fourth seat:

• Butler (ALP) – 1.022
• Badger (GRN) – 0.904
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.782
• Goss (ALP) – 0.577
• Jenner (JLN) – 0.521
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.505
• Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.498

The small Butler surplus mostly favoured the last remaining Labor candidate:

• Badger (GRN) – 0.905
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.783
• Goss (ALP) – 0.587
• Jenner (JLN) – 0.521
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.505
• Pfitzner (JLN) – 0.499

The exclusion of the second JLN candidate strongly favoured his one remaining colleague:

• Badger (GRN) – 0.919
• Jenner (JLN) – 0.911
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.798
• Goss (ALP) – 0.607
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.515

Cameron’s preferences strongly favoured Shelton, pushing him well over quota for the fifth seat. By this point Jenner and Badger were clear of Goss for the last two seats.

• Shelton (LIB) – 1.221
• Jenner (JLN) – 0.932
• Badger (GRN) – 0.928
• Goss (ALP) – 0.620

Most of Shelton’s surplus exhausted, with JLN winning the sixth seat and the Greens winning the seventh, almost 0.3 quota ahead of Labor.

• Jenner (JLN) – 0.966
• Badger (GRN) – 0.934
• Goss (ALP) – 0.638

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. Lyons covers all or part of twelve council areas, and these council boundaries have been used to divide booths into three areas.

• Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands, Southern Midlands.
• North – Kentish, Meander Valley.
• South – Brighton, Clarence, Derwent Valley, Sorell, Tasman.

The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in two out of three areas, with 39% in the centre and 43.4% in the north. They polled 33.7% in the south.

The Labor vote ranged from 26.7% in the north to 36.8% in the south.

The Greens came third with a primary vote ranging from 9.2% in the centre to 12.6% in the south.

The JLN had a vote ranging from 7.6% in the south to 9.3% in the north.

Election results in Lyons at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network.

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