Bentleigh – Victoria 2026

Big Protests today in Bentleigh after an Israeli was refused service at a hair dresser this seat has a very large Jewish community some violence has erupted.

This is one seat I thought the libs can never win sdeslitethe relatively low margin they might bpget close but winning?

I still think a better chance here than Greenvale which has an even lower margin. last time Libs did 11÷ better in primary vote in Bentleigh than Greenvale and this partly overlaps with Goldstein

I’m revising my last prediction of a labor/greens minority while I think this is the most likely outcome there is probably a small path to victory for the coalition.

Seats they will need are the 8 marginals
Bass
Hastings
Pakenham
Ripon
Glen Waverley
Bayswater
Yan Yean
Melton

They will also need to make inroads elsewhere seats that could be winnable include
Ashwood
Sunbury
Niddrie (the fact that the labor deputy is in this seat makes it less likely)
Eureka
Box Hill
Bentleigh might be in the maybe category with all the Jewish vote prolly tipping over to the libs after everything’s that’s gone one in the Middle East.

Stil they would be about 4 seats short however there is an outside chance they could win
South Barwon and Ringwood due to the incumbent Labor MPs problems along with Bendigo East (Nat) and maybe Werribee.

They will likely lose Prahan but this wasn’t there’s in 2022. I’d say Hawthorn and maybe Croydon might be under threat though. The libs should recover in there 3 most marginal seat as long as the inds don’t redo test.

@ John
my predictions align with you. I think likely a Labor/Greens minority however a few points
1. Think Ringwood is a easier pick up than Box Hill as Labor as an advvanatage of siitting MP who is wel liked in Box Hil
2. Hawthorn is under threat of Teal but not Labor.
3. I think the most Coalition can win is 46
4. The other possibility is Libs run dead in some Red wall seat and allow independents like Paul Hopper to win and form a minority with Red wall independents.
5. I think Sydenham/Cranbourne are possibilities while i think Labor is fine in the Narre Warrens

I think this will be a safe Labor hold.

On the Jewish population, I don’t think it will make any difference whatsoever. It’s large compared to the state average but at only around 7% it’s certainly not large enough to make any meaningful difference to a seat with an 8% margin. Also the Jewish community tends to lean a little more Liberal than average already, further reducing how much of a “Jewish swing” is up for grabs.

For comparison, areas in Macnamara that are between 20-45% Jewish only swung by between 1-5%, and the seat overall which is 12% Jewish only swung by 0.3%. No doubt the impact will be considerably less in a seat that is only about 7% Jewish.

A more important factor is that I believe Nick Staikos is a very popular local MP. I think he’ll have a significant personal vote which will blunt any generic swing against the ALP.

Bentleigh also has excellent infrastructure, public transport (well maybe not Bentleigh East), great public schools and quality of life, but it’s also mostly middle-class where things like the land & private school payroll tax won’t have as much of an impact as in the richer seats like Brighton & Malvern. In fact, a lot of young families move to Bentleigh specifically to be in the McKinnon school zone.

I think Staikos will hold with at least a 6% margin.

Im predicitong a small swing to the libs but as before i think the demographics mame it hard for libs to win barring a landslidd

I think Just like what @Pencil mentioned in the Albert Park thread, the Realignment theory seems to be more of a net loss for Libs as seats they once won even Liberal as recently as 2010 is now seen as very unlikely even by strong Liberal suburbs.

Does anyone know how to find what percent of a federal seat is in a state seat?

Given the size of federal seats compared to state seats it would be under 50%

@John like for a specific seat. Eg what percent of the federal seat of goldstein is in the state seat of bentleigh

@ Up the Dragons
Pollbludger has this on its state profile guide
It is 40% Hotham, 38% Goldstein, 23% Issacs on 2022 boundaries. They will publish a new guide closer to election which would give this info on 2025 Federal boundaries

https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2022/LA.htm?s=Bentleigh

@Nimalan thanks!

@ Up the Dragons, you are welcome 🙂

While Goldstein had a roughly 3% swing from IND to LIB at the federal election, both Hotham and Isaacs had very large swings to Labor.

Labor hold, changing demographics haven’t assisted the Liberals here.

For the libs to win they need to run very close here at least. Unlikely

The demographics of the seat will be one that the libs will only ever get close. So I’d say a 3% swing to libs putting it in that marginal seat zone but one the libs are likely to never win in its current form. I think the redistribution will probably make it safer at least on what I’m looking at doing.

John, the demographics are middle class, and that should make it winnable for the Liberals.

Bentleigh also has working class areas, and is why Bentleigh can be a marginal

Labor has really solidified their support in the Frankston line seats – Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum, Frankston. All are now on margins of at least 8%. They’ve been bellwethers since 2002.

Votante, Labor will be happy if they can hold those four Frankston line seats, and even happier, if they were held by margins greater than 5%.

At the next redistribution there may be a good argument to abolish Bentleigh. Currently all of the seats surrounding it are under quota (except Oakleigh) and likely to end up more so when the time comes. And with Brighton and Sandringham being on the Bay then they limited movement room.

@redsitributed thats not entirely true and the seat with the best case for Abolition would be Mulgrave. As that is the most under quota seat in that area. Thats what i intend to do. a new seat can then be created in the western parts of melbourne in the area around Sunbury, Kalkallo and Melton.

maybe by 2030 they should actually expand parliament by a couple of seats last time was in 1985

@nimlan 93 seats would be ideal. that equates to 2.5 state seats for every federal seat. and in line with QLD and NSW

@ John
I would support that what about Legislative council how many seats.
in 1985 Victoria had 3.8 million residents will be over 7 million by 2030

93 Legislative Assembly seats with 12 seats per electoral region would be a good expansion of parliament.

Victoria has over 7 million residents now according to the ABS

apologies, Captain Moonlight i misread it projected to be between 7-8 million by 2030 so could be around 7.5 million so a doubling in population in those 45 years

@ John, do you believe 1 or 2 new sears will be created north of the river, certainly one would be created if you are doing the figures now, but by the time they start looking and add the population growth 2 could be the case.

I believe that the first new seat would be in Melton the second could be in the north if there is to be a second new seat

As to the one abolished I’m not sure that the Frankston line would produce a seat that would be abolished, noting that Albert Park has to grow and has 3 options.

However the growth of the Mornington Pen. could see Frankston moving into Mt Eliza

No Worries Nimalan, most of the growth has been in last 20 years

At the time of the next redistribution, 3 Vic seats will have over 70,000 electors while some will be sitting on 50,000, there are going to be some major changes eg Ashburton and Hastings could look very different, Mildura could have all of Swan Hill council within its boundaries

I can see Euroa being abolished and Lowen moving from Vic East to Vic North, yet other seats such as Norhtcote and Preston might not have any boundary changes at all

@redistributed @john
I think every effort should be made to make clarinda the abolished seat given its community of interest is not clear. The industrial chops the seat into Springvale, Clayton and Cheltenham. Maybe shift Oakleigh east/south and rename to Clayton, then Bentleigh shifts north to take Murrumbeena/Carnegie.

It has to be remembered that the Victorian Commissioners are much less churlish about abolishing electorates than the federal ones. Having geographical names does help to concentrate the mind. The only ones they seem to think very heavily about are names of very long standing – going back into the 19th Century.

For what it is worth there are 48 seats north / west of the Yarra and 40 south / east. Currently the average between is only 1,000 votes – south / east 500 less than the current average, and north / west 500 more. Quite likely that the 48 / 40 balance will largely hold as fast growth is happening on both sides.

The suburb Bentleigh could be added to Brighton, since the suburb borderers Brighton East, and Bentleigh is named after a former Brighton MP, Sir Thomas Bent.

In terms of size of Parliament, as long as I can remember (both under the pre- and post-2002 systems) the boundaries of Legislative Council districts have been linked to Legislative Assembly ones – unless that (or the number of Legislative Council districts) changes, the number of Assembly seats would need to be a multiple of 8.

@rediatributed as we discussed with the federal redistribution the commission will go with the most under quota one which is Mulgrave at this stage. People made the same argument about Hotham and they still went with Higgins.

Captain just 1 there wouldn’t be justification to abolish 2 seats south of the river and there’s only enough growth to justify creating 1 North of the river. Also in regards to euroa my plan is to shift it south losing benalla but gaining parts of shepparton and the rest of mitchell shire. Renaming Seymour.

John, is Shepparton close enough to Seymour, to justify having them both in the same state seat? and if that seat worked, wouldn’t it be named Shepparton as it’s the larger town

It would be the outlying areas south of the river. Some of which are already in the seat. Shepparton would also take in the rest of Moira shire from ovens valley and the parts of shepparton in Murray plains.

Shepparton is already a seat. btw

That could work, and it could be called Seymour or Shepperton South.

John, murray plains is going to be an interesting one, i assume you are putting all of Loddon into it, but then what as it will need more people

Pencil Seymour would be more appropriate given its size. Tbh the best name would be Goulburn after the river valley but that would probably create some confusion given its a city/seat in nsw. Other possible are Nagambie or Strathbogie

Captain yes. I was thinking of adding more of campaspe

Goulburn Valley would be a good name i reckon

As a region Northern Victoria looks interesting.

At the start of the current boundaries it had 9,539 electors less than the average and was projected to have 12,710 less at the projected end date of 1 July 2026.

It is currently 15,106 electors short of average and my projections based on current enrolments would see a deficit of 16,421 electors to bring up to average.

While the 3 largest seats will have over 70,000 electors on 1 July 2026 (based on current enrolments) the following Northern Vic seats will have less than 50,000 electors

Bendigo West
Mildura
Murray Plains

The redistribution committee predicted 3 seats would be at the state average; it looks like only 2 will meet this (Yan Yean and Bendigo East)

In contrast Western Victoria started with 12,812 electors over average and was projected to be 21,382 on 1 July 2026. It is currently 23,352 over average and under my projections looks like being 25,844 over average.

Sorry I should say only 2 seats will not be at average enrollments for Western Victoria, being Lara and Lowan

I wonder what would had happened if Labor won this seat in 2010 as it would had create a 44 seat tie (there were 88 Seats that year so no crossbench)

@ Marh
It depends on if there was a Rat in either party who would have accepted the offer of a speaker from the other party.