Bentleigh – Victoria 2026

@nimalan it doesnt matter because who would vote aginst there own party to be in govt? you could get the speakership without ratting

youd go back to the polls

However, if there 44 all if one party nominates a speaker then they will have fewer members thats why in 44 all case there is a issue.

Nimalan with 44 all there can be no govt because you need a majority. So it wouldn’t even get to the speaker stage. Any turncoat mp would quickly find themselves without a job in 4 years.

Couple of factors now working against Staikos potentially here – the small Jewish population might swing further to the right (I imagine some of that has already occurred) and issues with Kingston council (that are also implicating the member for Carrum) are raising questions as to his conduct as the local government minister

I’m not convinced Labor is in any real trouble here along with rest of snadbelt. Labor’s trouble are regional, rural and out suburbs.

More broadly yes, but these more localised issues might be an issue in Bentleigh, Mordicalloc, Clarinda and Carrum – I could foresee some of the more aggrieved IND councillors at Kingston running again as Independents and possibly doing quite well drawing support from both major parties.

@SpaceFish, I agree.

Last night I listened to a podcast where Kos Samaras was breaking down the Victorian polling, and “Bentleigh and Mordialloc” were the first two seats he mentioned as examples of where the polling is showing Labor’s primary vote “holding up very well”.

I don’t think Labor will be in any trouble at all in Bentleigh or Mordialloc. They’ll cop a swing against them like they will everywhere but if the statewide polling is pointing at roughly a -6% swing at the moment and this area is where Labor’s vote is holding up the best, I think these 8%+ margins are relatively safe.

(A -6% statewide 2PP swing that was supposed to say, I know the primary vote swing is much worse)

If there is a 6% swing statewide i think Labor will cop a 3-4% swing here if it goes up to 8% statewide then i think 5% is possible here. It will go back to being marginal and possibly a 2030 target is Staikos retires then.

I definitely agree that the sandbelt is not going to be decisive this election like in 2010/14 and these seats (Mordi, Bentleigh and Carrum) are further up Labor’s pendulum than what the Liberals would need to form government.

I am just thinking there could be a localised effect on Staikos personally if there are indeed unfavourable findings over his conduct regarding the Kingston Council monitors, and the ripple effects of that situation could permeate through Mordi and particularly Clarinda, especially if the independent councillors involved end up running again on the issues around development at Dingley Village etc.

Otherwise no threat to this seat – probably a fairly marginal Labor hold on current numbers. 3-4% margin

All the assessments seem a bit bearish for Labor on the polling. Current polling is showing the Liberals around 51-52% ahead which is a 6-7% swing from last election, which would suggest this could withstand current polling.

I think with a strong local member, and the seat being relatively close to the city, Labor should retain this.

I don’t think there will be a universal swing against the government rather Labor actually improve in the ttp in some seats, small swing against them in others and really aggressive against the government in others. Even if Labor suffers a massive defeat I expect them to retain all four sand belt seats along with clay wall seats such as Box Hill, Ashwood, Ringwood and Monbulk.

@Spacefish, I think Ringwood is less likely to have Labor retain due to the issue of the Hospital and William Fowles. Box Hill and Ashwood would probably be very competitive. Monbulk most likely Labor retain. Glen Waverley is probably now a write off for Labor as the Liberal Candidate is a Chinese Immigrant.

Also the Greens Candidate for Box Hill is also Chinese Immigrant.

@ Marh
Also Ringwood is more Anglo only has a 17% Chinese Ancestory and virtually no other ethnic minorities except Iranians who i assume are right leaning. Ringwood also more tradies etc which will likely swing right. I can see 4 sandbelt seats plus Monbulk, Box Hill be retained and Libs can win Melton, Yan Yean, Niddrie and Sunbury and possibly Werribee/Sydneham/Point Cook but that is still a very narrow path.

@ Marh
Also Ringwood is more Anglo only has a 17% Chinese Ancestory and virtually no other ethnic minorities except Iranians who i assume are right leaning. Ringwood also more tradies etc which will likely swing right. I can see 4 sandbelt seats plus Monbulk, Box Hill be retained and Libs can win Melton, Yan Yean, Niddrie and Sunbury and possibly Werribee/Sydneham/Point Cook but that is still a very narrow path.

Spacefish
Can you detail where there might be a swing to the ALP. I can understand that there will be smaller and larger swings but a swing to Labor when they are so on the nose? The Demos poll a few weeks indicated a collapse in the Labor vote everywhere but especially huge in the Outer Metro.

@ Redistributed the only seats i think there will be a swing to ALP are Greenvale, Broadmeadows and St Albans. In 1992 even while Labor lost in a landslide a few seats like Broadmeadows and Thomastown had a small swing to Labor.
In Greenvale and Broadmeadows i think especially Muslims who voted for right wing minors last time purely due to lockdowns while swing to VS/Greens but dont give a damn about that now and are focused on Palestine etc so this will lead to a small TPP swing to Labor.
In St ALbans i think Greens will pick up some people who voted DLP last time again due to anti-lockdowns especially young generations of Vietnamese Australians many of these voters like Left Wing populism like Zohran Mamdani who there maybe a small swing Labor in TPP terms even with no primary improvments.

Like I just said in the Mordialloc thread, the sandbelt is almost certainly to have a below average swing against Labor, so these margins on 8%+ should be safe.

If Labor cop a 7-8% 2PP swing statewide, they’ll probably only cop a ~4% swing in seats like Bentleigh & Mordialloc. Same with multicultural seats like Box Hill.

Ashwood’s 6.4% margin will be in danger though and that’ll be a 50/50 tossup I think. Glen Waverley’s margin is way too small so I’d consider that gone.

@ Trent
While i agree if there is an 8% TPP statewide the swing in the 4 Sandbelt seats, i think swing will be slightly more than that at 5-6% in Bentleigh and Mordiallic. If the swing statewide goes up to 10% then i think they are in real danger of falling. I personally think Ringwood is gone it is actually less multicultural than Ashwood or Box Hill and has more tradies etc and with no sitting member it will swing much more than Box Hill. I would say Carrum and Frankston have pockets of White Working Class Territory away from the coast such as Carrum Downs or Karingal where ONP will have some appeal. The education levels of Carrum and Frankston are the same as Narre Warrens and Cranbourne without the ethnic diversity. The reason i expect a slightly higher swing in the Sandbelt than yourself is that i am factoring in some normalisation in Ethnically diverse areas where there was an Anti-Lockdown backlash last time.