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@nimalan it doesnt matter because who would vote aginst there own party to be in govt? you could get the speakership without ratting
youd go back to the polls
However, if there 44 all if one party nominates a speaker then they will have fewer members thats why in 44 all case there is a issue.
Nimalan with 44 all there can be no govt because you need a majority. So it wouldn’t even get to the speaker stage. Any turncoat mp would quickly find themselves without a job in 4 years.
Couple of factors now working against Staikos potentially here – the small Jewish population might swing further to the right (I imagine some of that has already occurred) and issues with Kingston council (that are also implicating the member for Carrum) are raising questions as to his conduct as the local government minister
I’m not convinced Labor is in any real trouble here along with rest of snadbelt. Labor’s trouble are regional, rural and out suburbs.
More broadly yes, but these more localised issues might be an issue in Bentleigh, Mordicalloc, Clarinda and Carrum – I could foresee some of the more aggrieved IND councillors at Kingston running again as Independents and possibly doing quite well drawing support from both major parties.
@SpaceFish, I agree.
Last night I listened to a podcast where Kos Samaras was breaking down the Victorian polling, and “Bentleigh and Mordialloc” were the first two seats he mentioned as examples of where the polling is showing Labor’s primary vote “holding up very well”.
I don’t think Labor will be in any trouble at all in Bentleigh or Mordialloc. They’ll cop a swing against them like they will everywhere but if the statewide polling is pointing at roughly a -6% swing at the moment and this area is where Labor’s vote is holding up the best, I think these 8%+ margins are relatively safe.
(A -6% statewide 2PP swing that was supposed to say, I know the primary vote swing is much worse)
If there is a 6% swing statewide i think Labor will cop a 3-4% swing here if it goes up to 8% statewide then i think 5% is possible here. It will go back to being marginal and possibly a 2030 target is Staikos retires then.
I definitely agree that the sandbelt is not going to be decisive this election like in 2010/14 and these seats (Mordi, Bentleigh and Carrum) are further up Labor’s pendulum than what the Liberals would need to form government.
I am just thinking there could be a localised effect on Staikos personally if there are indeed unfavourable findings over his conduct regarding the Kingston Council monitors, and the ripple effects of that situation could permeate through Mordi and particularly Clarinda, especially if the independent councillors involved end up running again on the issues around development at Dingley Village etc.
Otherwise no threat to this seat – probably a fairly marginal Labor hold on current numbers. 3-4% margin