Incumbent MPs
- Vica Bayley (Greens), since 2023.
- Simon Behrakis (Liberal), since 2023.
- Helen Burnet (Greens), since 2024.
- Ella Haddad (Labor), since 2018.
- Kristie Johnston (Independent), since 2021.
- Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal), since 2019. Previously 2014–2018.
- Josh Willie (Labor), since 2024. Previously MLC for Elwick 2016-2024
Geography
Clark covers the suburbs of Hobart on the western shores of the Derwent River. The seat covers Hobart and Glenorchy LGAs as well as northern parts of Kingborough LGA. The seat includes the Hobart CBD and is by far the most compact seat in Tasmania.
The division of Clark was created for the 2021 state election, as a new name for the previous division of Denison.
Denison was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Denison has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.
The seat first elected four Anti-Socialists and two Labor MPs in 1909. The 1912 election produced an even split of 3 Labor and 3 Liberals, which was maintained at the next four elections. At the 1925 election, the ALP won four out of six seats, as part of the ALP’s first majority government in Tasmania, led by Premier Joseph Lyons.
Denison reverted to a 3-3 split in 1928, before the Nationalists won a 4-2 split as part of their landslide win in 1931. The 1934 election saw the ALP recover and they won 3 seats in Denison, alongside two Nationalists and one independent, George Carruthers, who supported an ALP minority government.
The ALP won a more decisive victory in 1937, which saw 4 Labor MPs elected in Denison. This was maintained in 1941, and an independent won a seat off the ALP in 1946, producing a 3-2-1 split. The 1948 election saw three Labor, one Liberal and two independents win seats in Denison.
One of those independent seats was won back by the Liberal Party in 1950, and the 1955 and 1956 elections saw a result of 3 Labor and 3 Liberal MPs in Denison. These two elections produced identical results where the two parties won three seats each in all five districts. This took place despite the ALP winning approximately 7% more than the Liberals at both elections. This ended with the House of Assembly being increased to thirty-five seats at the 1959, when an independent won the seventh seat in Denison.
The Liberal Party won a 4-3 majority in 1964 and 1969, which helped end the Labor government which ruled Tasmania from 1934 to 1969. Denison’s seventh seat went back to the ALP in 1972, when Labor won a majority in Tasmania, but the ALP government managed to win a majority in 1976 despite the Liberals winning the seventh seat in Denison.
The 1979 election gave the Labor government of Doug Lowe a 20-15 majority, including four seats in Denison. The result, however, was invalidated later in 1979 due to violations of campaign spending laws, and a by-election was held in early 1980, which saw two key events that shaped Tasmanian politics. Along with three Labor and three Liberal MPs, the seventh seat was won by Norm Sanders of the Democrats. In addition, internal conflict in the ALP saw the party’s Left hand out how-to-vote cards putting Deputy Premier Neil Batt fourth on their ticket, which led to the introduction of Robson Rotation.
The 1982 election was a landslide for the Liberal Party, who won a 19-14-2 majority in the House of Assembly. Sole Democrats MP Norm Sanders was re-elected in Denison along with four Liberals and two Labor MPs. This was the only time during the period of Denison electing seven MPs that either major party failed to elect at least three MPs in Denison. Director of the Tasmanian Wilderness Society Dr Bob Brown also won 8% of the vote as an independent.
Sanders resigned from Parliament in late 1982 at the height of the Franklin Dam campaign, and Brown won Sanders’ seat on a countback of votes from the previous election.
At the 1986 election Brown was reelected as a “Green Independent”, alongside three from each of the major parties. This pattern of 3 Labor, 3 Liberal and 1 Green was maintained until the reduction in the size of the House of Assembly in 1998, with Brown being succeeded by Peg Putt in 1993.
After two periods of minority governments with the balance of power being held by the Greens, the Labor and Liberal parties agreed to cut the number of seats at the 1998 election from 35 to 25, with each district electing five MPs. The 1998 election saw the ALP and Liberal Party lose a seat in Denison, with Peg Putt surviving as the only Tasmanian Greens MP.
The 2002 election saw the reelection of the Labor government led by Denison MP Jim Bacon, and it saw the Liberal Party reduced to a sole seat in Denison, alongside one Green and three Labor MPs. This result was maintained at the 2006 election.
In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat, with the Liberal Party regaining a second seat. Labor Premier David Bartlett was re-elected, but his Labor colleagues Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges both lost their seats, with Scott Bacon winning Labor’s second seat. The Liberal Party’s Michael Hodgman retired, and Elise Archer and Matthew Groom were elected as Liberal MPs.
There was no change in the party split in 2014, although Labor’s Graeme Sturges retired and was succeeded by Madeleine Ogilvie.
The split of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens was maintained in 2018. Ogilvie lost her seat, but returned to parliament in 2019 upon the retirement of Scott Bacon. Ogilvie subsequently fell out with Labor and sat in the parliament as an independent.
Sue Hickey, was elected as a Liberal MP in 2018, had been elected speaker of the House of Assembly with the support of Labor and Greens members after the election. She subsequently voted against the government on a number of occasions, and she left the Liberal Party in March 2021 after being informed that she would not be preselected for the next election.
Hickey ran an independent ticket, as did Glenorchy mayor Kristie Johnston. The Liberal Party regained their two seats (with Ogilvie winning re-election as a Liberal), and the Greens retained their one seat. Labor retained one of their two seats, while Johnston won the fifth seat.
The number of MPs representing Clark was restored to seven in 2024. The Liberal Party retained their two seats, and Kristie Johnston was re-elected. Labor and the Greens each gained a second seat.
- Ella Haddad*
- John Kamara
- Luke Martin
- Liam McLaren
- Tessa McLaughlin
- Craig Shirley
- Josh Willie*
- Vica Bayley*
- Helen Burnet*
- Pat Caruana
- Peter Jones
- Janet Shelley
- Angus Templeton
- Nathan Volf
- Elise Archer
- Jags Goldsmith
- John Macgowan
- Steven Phipps
Assessment
The second Liberal seat could be under theat here. The Greens will also be concerned about holding on to their second seat. Labor will be hoping for a third.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Quota | Swing |
| Ella Haddad | 6,944 | 10.9 | 0.8733 | |
| Josh Willie | 5,670 | 8.9 | 0.7131 | |
| Stuart Benson | 1,929 | 3.0 | 0.2426 | |
| John Kamara | 1,689 | 2.7 | 0.2124 | |
| Rebecca Prince | 1,441 | 2.3 | 0.1812 | |
| Simon Davis | 852 | 1.3 | 0.1072 | |
| Susan Wallace | 850 | 1.3 | 0.1069 | |
| Australian Labor Party | 19,375 | 30.5 | 2.4368 | +8.4 |
| Simon Behrakis | 5,168 | 8.1 | 0.6500 | |
| Madeleine Ogilvie | 4,623 | 7.3 | 0.5814 | |
| Marcus Vermey | 3,513 | 5.5 | 0.4418 | |
| Jon Gourlay | 1,434 | 2.3 | 0.1804 | |
| Mohammad Aldergham | 878 | 1.4 | 0.1104 | |
| Catherine Searle | 828 | 1.3 | 0.1041 | |
| Emma Atterbury | 800 | 1.3 | 0.1006 | |
| Liberal Party | 17,244 | 27.1 | 2.1688 | -4.7 |
| Vica Bayley | 6,313 | 9.9 | 0.7940 | |
| Helen Burnet | 3,422 | 5.4 | 0.4304 | |
| Janet Shelley | 1,076 | 1.7 | 0.1353 | |
| Peter Jones | 821 | 1.3 | 0.1033 | |
| Nathan Volf | 629 | 1.0 | 0.0791 | |
| Trenton Hoare | 545 | 0.9 | 0.0685 | |
| James Zalotockyj | 459 | 0.7 | 0.0577 | |
| Tasmanian Greens | 13,265 | 20.9 | 1.6683 | +0.8 |
| Kristie Johnston | 4,925 | 7.7 | 0.6194 | -3.2 |
| Sue Hickey | 3,117 | 4.9 | 0.3920 | -4.9 |
| Ben Lohberger | 1,702 | 2.7 | 0.2141 | +2.7 |
| Louise Elliot | 1,160 | 1.8 | 0.1459 | +1.8 |
| Casey Davies | 1,088 | 1.7 | 0.1368 | |
| Animal Justice Party | 1,088 | 1.7 | 0.1368 | +1.7 |
| Adrian Pickin | 521 | 0.8 | 0.0655 | |
| Lorraine Bennett | 408 | 0.6 | 0.0513 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 929 | 1.5 | 0.1168 | +0.1 |
| David Nunn | 147 | 0.2 | 0.0185 | |
| Frank Formby | 129 | 0.2 | 0.0162 | |
| Sam Campbell | 112 | 0.2 | 0.0141 | |
| Ranae Zollner | 88 | 0.1 | 0.0111 | |
| Local Network | 476 | 0.7 | 0.0599 | +0.7 |
| Stefan Vogel | 162 | 0.3 | 0.0204 | |
| Angela Triffitt | 90 | 0.1 | 0.0113 | |
| John Michael Forster | 70 | 0.1 | 0.0088 | |
| Total Others | 322 | 0.5 | 0.0405 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 3,655 | 5.4 |
No candidate polled a full quota on primary votes, although Labor MP Ella Haddad and Greens MP Vica Bayley reached a quota relatively early in the count.
Let’s fast forward to the point where nine candidates are contesting the last five seats:
- Simon Behrakis (LIB) – 0.866 quotas
- Kristie Johnston (IND) – 0.845
- Josh Willie (ALP) – 0.835
- Madeleine Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.809
- Helen Burnet (GRN) – 0.770
- Marcus Vermey (LIB) – 0.614
- Sue Hickey (IND) – 0.518
- Stuart Benson (ALP) – 0.391
- John Kamara (ALP) – 0.317
Kamara’s preferences took Willie close to a quota and boosted Benson, but not enough for Benson to survive another round:
- Willie (ALP) – 0.989
- Behrakis (LIB) – 0.875
- Johnston (IND) – 0.866
- Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.817
- Burnet (GRN) – 0.790
- Vermey (LIB) – 0.620
- Hickey (IND) – 0.531
- Benson (ALP) – 0.469
Benson’s preferences pushed Willie a long way over quota:
- Willie (ALP) – 1.351
- Behrakis (LIB) – 0.887
- Johnston (IND) – 0.886
- Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.826
- Burnet (GRN) – 0.812
- Vermey (LIB) – 0.628
- Hickey (IND) – 0.546
Willie’s surplus favoured Johnston, Hickey and Burnet:
- Johnston (IND) – 0.922
- Behrakis (LIB) – 0.896
- Burnet (GRN) – 0.868
- Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.835
- Vermey (LIB) – 0.636
- Hickey (IND) – 0.572
Hickey’s preferences elected Johnston to the fourth seat.
- Johnston (IND) – 1.175
- Behrakis (LIB) – 0.934
- Burnet (GRN) – 0.972
- Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.884
- Vermey (LIB) – 0.674
Johnston’s surplus elected Burnet to the fifth seat, and left three Liberals in the race for two seats, with two of them far out in front:
- Burnet (GRN) – 1.031
- Behrakis (LIB) – 0.949
- Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.904
- Vermey (LIB) – 0.690
Behrakis and Ogilvie won the last two seats, and Vermey missed out.
- Behrakis (LIB) – 0.953
- Ogilvie (LIB) – 0.908
- Vermey (LIB) – 0.697
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population of Clark lie in Glenorchy and Hobart local government areas. Booths in Glenorchy have been split between Claremont (north) and Glenorchy (south). Booths in Hobart have been divided between Hobart and South. The handful of booths in Kingborough council have also been included in South.
There is a strong divide in the vote between the Glenorchy and Hobart council areas. Labor does much better in Glenorchy and the Greens do much better in Hobart. Johnston also does better in Glenorchy.
Labor topped the vote in Glenorchy and Claremont. The Greens topped the poll in Hobart. The Liberals did so in the south.
The Labor vote ranged from 19.5% in the south to 39.9% in Glenorchy. The Liberal vote ranged from 20.8% in Hobart to 32% in Claremont. The Greens vote ranged from 8.2% in Claremont to 31.6% in Hobart.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Johnston | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hobart | 20.8 | 27.5 | 31.6 | 7.7 | 13,365 | 21.0 |
| South | 30.9 | 19.5 | 26.4 | 6.3 | 10,451 | 16.4 |
| Glenorchy | 24.9 | 39.9 | 14.4 | 9.5 | 9,651 | 15.2 |
| Claremont | 32.0 | 39.3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 6,585 | 10.4 |
| Pre-poll | 28.9 | 30.5 | 18.7 | 7.7 | 14,277 | 22.4 |
| Other votes | 28.0 | 30.8 | 18.2 | 7.3 | 9,274 | 14.6 |
Election results in Clark at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Greens and independent candidate Kristie Johnston.
This really is the most wonderful seat in Australia. I hope the good people of Hobart give us another cracker of a count.
Suburbs of Greater Hobart (plus some other areas like Huonville, etc) shaded by the gap between the first placed candidate and second placed candidate: https://jmp.sh/vzTVzO2K
Now I’ve done maps for Greater Burnie, Greater Devonport and Ulverstone, Greater Hobart and Greater Launceston.
Every now and then I worry that the right’s total inability to maintain a stable majority, and Labor’s lack of interest in governing, will mean major party collaboration to introduce single member electorates for the lower house in Tassie.
Then I think about what those seats would even look like. They wouldn’t quite be NT tiny, but they’d get close. Can you imagine the people’s republic of Fern Tree and South Hobart?
2 Lib 2 lab 2 grn Johnston
Font Podcast had 2 LIB 2-3 ALP 2 GRN and 0-1 Johnston. The discussion was she was more than likely to loose her seat. I disagree with this, as she’s built up a bit of a profile. Last time Sue Hickey ran and split the independent vote. She’s now Mayor and don’t see her ditching that for another attempt at state, which will give Johnston the consolidated independent vote. There’s no other high profile ALP candidates here yet, so it’s hard to see them going above 2, unless the GRN vote drops here. Think that 2nd GRN is most at risk to 3rd ALP. (And intra-war for LIBS Ogilvie vs Vermey)
Initial Assessment: 2 LIB 2 ALP 2 GRN 1 Johnston
Elise Archer is back! running as an independent again
The salmon guy Martin running for Labor … you would think this would free up some votes or at least surplus preferences for the Greens. Hm.
Still not completely sold on the Libs holding 2 seats, otherwise Labor and Greens fighting for the final spot with Johnston relatively safe seems the most likely. 2 Lib 2-3 ALP 1-2 GRN 1 IND looks good?
Liberal Ticket in Clark:
– Madeleine Ogilvie
– Simon Behrakis
– Marcus Vermey
– Marilena Di Florio
– David Wan
– Edwin Johnstone
– Jess Barnett
Thinking 2 ALP, 2 GRN, 1 IND (Johnston), 1 LIB, 1 Tossup between LIB, ALP & IND.
The Greens have until now done an incredibly good job of holding onto their vote here against Indies that would appeal to big chunks of their voter base in other parts of Australia. Tas Labor appears entirely uninterested in competing for those votes. Do people in Tas Labor not know how to count to 18?
@Josh – Labor and Greens in Tas fight like cats and dogs.
https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/diametrically-opposed-tasmanian-labor-leader-shuts-door-on-greens-deal/
Craig unfortunately labor cannot govern without them
Driving through this seat a few weeks ago, the line between those booths at lower Sandy Bay and Taroona is just as stark and hilarious as it looks on the map. Wall to wall Liberal signs along the shore then you turn a corner and it’s suddenly 80% Greens signs. Spectacular.
Notable that there were very few Labor signs in this seat overall – including in the bits of their northern heartland I visited. They were sparse on the channel and eastern shore too. I can’t shake the sense that Labor hit go on an election without being ready with star candidates, materials or plans – though their policy rollout has looked fairly slick from here.
It’s also very refreshing seeing an independent like Jags Goldsmith run for a discernible and specific political reason, not to ‘stand up for the community’ and the rest of the teal boilerplate. Same with Jiri Lev in Lyons (and of course Johnston and Garland, and to an extent George too – at least the fish are specific). It’s hard to get airtime without the C200 industrial complex or a previous run behind you, but Tassie’s a good place to do it. I hope they do well next Saturday off their campaigns and the overall indie halo effect.
This is gonna turn up 2 inds 1 lib 1 lab and 1 grn the last 2 spots are a race between lib lab and green
John 2 inds? Who would be the second?
I would personally be surprised by anything other than status quo here. Lock in 2 ALP, 1 LIB, 1 GRN and Johnstone. Liberals or Greens could lose a set to Archer or Labor
Can’t see labor winning more then 2 here with the high one vote likely to elect 2 inds. Expect 2 lab 1 lib 1 grn 2 ind (probably Johnston and maybe Archer) libs and grns to fight over last spot.
2-2-2-1 seems almost a lock to me
Status quo seems most likely here, lib or grn may lose a seat to Archer but I wouldn’t rate her chances based on individual polling.
Marcus Vermey is polling above Madeleine Ogilvie and Simon Behrakis who are on similar figures. I think Marcus and Maddie elected for the Liberals is likely. Maddie will get some leakage from Labor seeing she used to be their MP
In terms of independents Johnston is way up polling ahead of Archer (17% vs 4%) . But its not really a competition between those two. Archer could take votes from Anti-stadium Libs
Willie and Haddad are shoo ins for Labor. For the Greens – Helen Burnet is polling ahead of Vica Bayley which is surprising . Greens vote is polling very high . Final prediction is 2 Labor 2 Green 1 Liberal 1 Independent … final seat Liberal vs Archer (Ironic)
2 Lib – Vermey, Ogilvie
2 Lab – Haddad, Willie
2 Grn – Bayley, Burnet
1 Ind – Johnston
But you never know with Clark.
I wonder if Andrew Wilkie created a party how well it would do here. Would people switch from the major parties to Wilkie like they do federally?
josh & dragons i think based on polling it will be 1 lib 2 lab 1 grn Johnson with the greens, libs and another independent to fight over the last 2 spots
I see the Liberals winning two seats, Labor two seats, and the Greens one seat. The last two seats are anyone’s guess, because of the logjam of alternatives. At this stage, I feel that Johnston could be returned, but only by virtue of her presence as a well-known alternative to the major parties and the Greens. Unless voters are at ease with the idea that a balance-of-power crossbench could trigger more of the chaos which triggered this snap election in the first place, the alternatives could struggle. Apart from Johnston, I lean possibly to the Greens winning a second seat.
Status quo although Marcus Vermey is elected at the expense of either olgivie or behrakis for the libs
Do we think Maddy ogilvie or Simon behrakis will be final Lib?
too close to call prefernce flows are unpredicatable given how close the vote is dont be surprised if vermey loses and the the two current mps are reelected
I think Vermey should be fine, I think Behrakis should get in considering he is currently ahead of Ogilvie.