Braddon – Tasmania 2025

Incumbent MPs

  • Miriam Beswick (Independent), since 2024.1
  • Shane Broad (Labor), since 2017.
  • Anita Dow (Labor), since 2018.
  • Felix Ellis (Liberal), since 2021. Previously 2020–2021.
  • Craig Garland (Independent), since 2024.
  • Roger Jaensch (Liberal), since 2014.
  • Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal), since 2002.

1Beswick first sat as a member of the Jacqui Lambie Network but resigned from the party in August 2024.

Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Latrobe, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.

History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.

From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.

The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.

The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.

The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This result was maintained in 2002, 2006 and 2010. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.

There was a 13% swing to the Liberal Party in 2014, while Labor lost 17% and the Greens lost 6%. 7% of the electorate voted for the Palmer United Party (at the time represented in the Senate by Jacqui Lambie). The Greens lost their sole seat, while Labor also lost one of their two seats. The Liberal Party doubled their representation from two to four.

The Liberal Party lost one of their four seats in 2018, with Labor regaining their second seat. This result was repeated in 2021, with the Liberal Party winning three seats to Labor’s two.

At the 2024 election, the number of seats in Braddon increased from five to seven. Liberal and Labor retained their three and two seats respectively. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s Miriam Beswick and independent Craig Garland won the other two seats.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor did very well in Braddon at the recent federal election, and would be hoping to gain at least a third seat. The Jacqui Lambie Network was also strong in this area, and comfortably won a seat last time. Miriam Beswick did not have much of a personal profile, so it is unclear if she can attract much of a vote as an independent. Craig Garland narrowly scraped by in 2024, in part dependent on the Greens vote staying low enough for him to stay ahead of them and gain their preferences. Garland will hope to have built his personal vote, but he’s only had one year as a sitting member.

2024 result

Candidate Votes % Quota Swing
Jeremy Rockliff 19,572 27.6 2.2053
Felix Ellis 5,163 7.3 0.5817
Roger Jaensch 2,704 3.8 0.3047
Giovanna Simpson 1,852 2.6 0.2087
Vonette Mead 1,467 2.1 0.1653
Patrick Fabian 858 1.2 0.0967
Sarina Laidler 787 1.1 0.0887
Liberal Party 32,403 45.6 3.6510 -11.6
Anita Dow 5,816 8.2 0.6553
Shane Broad 4,589 6.5 0.5171
Chris Lynch 2,319 3.3 0.2613
Amanda Diprose 1,504 2.1 0.1695
Samantha Facey 1,319 1.9 0.1486
Adrian Luke 1,017 1.4 0.1146
Danielle Kidd 969 1.4 0.1092
Australian Labor Party 17,533 24.7 1.9755 -1.8
Miriam Beswick 2,951 4.2 0.3325
James Redgrave 2,776 3.9 0.3128
Craig Cutts 2,352 3.3 0.2650
Jacqui Lambie Network 8,079 11.4 0.9103 +11.4
Darren Briggs 2,493 3.5 0.2809
Sarah Kersey 411 0.6 0.0463
Susanne Ward 403 0.6 0.0454
Leeya Lovell 364 0.5 0.0410
Petra Wilden 359 0.5 0.0405
Michael Mcloughlin 357 0.5 0.0402
Erin Morrow 314 0.4 0.0354
Tasmanian Greens 4,701 6.6 0.5297 +1.1
Craig Garland 3,638 5.1 0.4099 -0.9
Dale Marshall 890 1.3 0.1003
Brenton Jones 706 1.0 0.0795
Kim Swanson 452 0.6 0.0509
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 2,048 2.9 0.2308 -0.9
Julia M King 866 1.2 0.0976
Animal Justice Party 866 1.2 0.0976 +1.2
Peter Freshney 1,281 1.8 0.1443
Andrea Courtney 168 0.2 0.0189
Liz Hamer 149 0.2 0.0168
Gatty Burnett 127 0.2 0.0143
Total Others 1,725 2.4 0.1944 +2.4
Informal 5,220 6.8

Preference flows

Premier Jeremy Rockliff polled over two quotas in his own right, while no other candidate polled a primary vote quota. Fellow Liberal Felix Ellis reached quota soon after when Rockliff’s surplus was distributed. Labor’s Anita Dow won the third seat as the count proceeded. A third Liberal is quite close to quota, while two others were neck-and-neck to be the potential fourth Liberal.

Let’s fast forward to the point where there are eight candidates competing for the final four seats, and Simpson defeated Mead to be the fourth Liberal contender by 0.009 quotas.

  • Shane Broad (ALP) – 0.976 quotas
  • Roger Jaensch (LIB) – 0.854
  • Craig Garland (IND) – 0.607
  • Miriam Beswick (JLN) – 0.553
  • Darren Briggs (GRN) – 0.547
  • James Redgrave (JLN) – 0.527
  • Giovanna Simpson (LIB) – 0.443
  • Vonette Mead (LIB) – 0.434

Mead’s preferences elected Jaensch to the fourth seat, and pushed Simpson into sixth place:

  • Jaensch (LIB) – 1.030
  • Broad (ALP) – 0.992
  • Simpson (LIB) – 0.634
  • Garland (IND) – 0.617
  • Beswick (JLN) – 0.564
  • Briggs (GRN) – 0.552
  • Redgrave (JLN) – 0.538

Janesch’s small surplus mostly flowed to Simpson:

  • Broad (ALP) – 0.992
  • Simpson (LIB) – 0.661
  • Garland (IND) – 0.617
  • Beswick (JLN) – 0.565
  • Briggs (GRN) – 0.552
  • Redgrave (JLN) – 0.539

The exclusion of Redgrave, the second JLN candidate, pushed his colleague Beswick almost to a quota, but also elected Broad to the fifth seat:

  • Broad (ALP) – 1.024
  • Beswick (JLN) – 0.991
  • Simpson (LIB) – 0.678
  • Garland (IND) – 0.647
  • Briggs (GRN) – 0.565

Broad’s surplus did little, but did bring Beswick to the verge of a quota:

  • Beswick (JLN) – 0.998
  • Simpson (LIB) – 0.680
  • Garland (IND) – 0.650
  • Briggs (GRN) – 0.567

Greens preferences pushed Beswick over quota and also put Garland in the lead for the final seat:

  • Beswick (JLN) – 1.125
  • Garland (IND) – 0.820
  • Simpson (LIB) – 0.713

Beswick’s surplus favoured Garland and he won by 0.156 quotas:

  • Garland (IND) – 0.886
  • Simpson (LIB) – 0.730

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in the Circular Head, Waratah/Wynyard and West Coast LGAs were divided into North West and South West. Polling places in Devonport and Latrobe council areas have been grouped into one group. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast council areas have been grouped together separately.

Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.

The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in every area, ranging from 39.6% in Burnie to 59.2% on King Island. The Labor primary vote ranged from 18.4% in King Island to 30.7% in Burnie.

The Jacqui Lambie Network’s vote ranged from 5.7% on King Island to 15.3% in the south-west. Amongst the most populous areas, their vote was higher in Devonport-Latrobe and Central Coast than the North-West.

Craig Garland’s vote was much higher in the north-west than any other part.

Voter group LIB % ALP % JLN % Garland Total votes % of votes
Devonport-Latrobe 47.8 22.1 11.9 2.4 15,050 21.2
Central Coast 47.2 24.3 11.2 4.2 11,533 16.2
North-West 43.2 23.0 9.5 13.1 8,910 12.6
Burnie 39.6 30.7 11.0 6.3 7,569 10.7
South-West 40.4 24.1 15.3 2.8 1,583 2.2
King Island 59.2 18.4 5.7 3.6 752 1.1
Pre-poll 47.1 25.8 12.0 4.1 18,686 26.3
Other votes 44.0 24.3 11.4 4.4 6,910 9.7

Election results in Braddon at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Jacqui Lambie Network, the Greens and independent candidate Craig Garland.

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16 COMMENTS

  3. Suburbs of and towns near Burnie shaded by the gap between the first placed candidate and second placed candidate: https://jmp.sh/iOAq8phv

    Only two booths in Greater Burnie voted Labor (Acton and Montello). Seven did in Launceston. Burnie is usually better for Labor than Devonport, where the Liberals still won a federal booth in 2025 despite the massive swing that was especially concentrated in the two cities (Burnie and Devonport) and major towns like Penguin and Wynyard.

  5. Without JLN running I expect a decent chunk of their vote heads to Craig Garland, who’ll probably win re-election fairly easily without the competition. Adam Martin’s result at the Fed suggests Braddon isn’t turning on independents any time soon. Given that Rockliff’s personal ratings are still very good the Libs shouldn’t be in any danger of dropping from three, so that leaves Lib 3 Labor 2 Garland 1 with the last seat up for grabs.

    I’d expect that last seat to be between Labor’s third, the Liberals’ fourth and the Greens, but whoever wins that is pretty much impossible to predict given that you’d need an idea of the exclusion order to even start.

  6. Labor should run no more than 6 candidates here and every other electorate meanwhile the Greens should run no more than 4 in Braddon Specifically

  8. Such a crowded ticket for the Libs… former senator Stephen Parry and sitting Mps felix ellis and roger jaensch will be joining them . As well as Premier rockliff!

  10. Caleb I the same reason they run 6 candidates for the senate to ensure the vote never leaves them until they are eliminated.

    Indricothere this is the libs tro gesture area most of the jln vote came from the libs and may stick with beswick rockliff is still fairly popular and as his home seat the libs should hold off labor. Labor arely polled 2 quotas last time and the greens will help garland first. Last seat will go to libs or Berwick

  11. Font Podcast had 3 LIB, 2-3 ALP, 1 GRN, 0-1 IND
    With 3 INDs (pending Beswick going to NATS or not) with a good profile running here, you’d expect at least 1 IND to be elected, unless they reverse Ginniderra themselves and let the 3rd ALP or even a 4th LIB sneak through. Even with strong sentiment against the proposed stadium, it’s hard to see LIBs loosing a seat when they were 0.6 quota over last time. 1 quota of Lambie votes have to come somewhere.

    Initial Assessment: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 IND and last seat 1st Grn vs 2nd IND. (Or a freak 4 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 IND [Garland] with JLN gone, but with stadium sentiment… I doubt it)

  13. the results would depend on how many candidates each party fields, if everyone is fielding 7 candidates then those party votes are going to stretch thin.
    for example if the Greens only field 4 candidates instead of 7 then they may be with a chance of getting a seat in Braddon.

  14. @Nether Portal, yes the Tasmania Nats are back for another tilt. Last Tasmania Nationals representative was an ex-JLN Senator (who took over from Lambie due to the S44 situation). The Nationals (NATS) registered only recently, so can run. I’ve only given the NATS are chance in Lyon due to the case of Tucker and Jenner running together (As per rumours) and that the different demographics they appeal to might bring that ticket across the line. As for Beswick, I really don’t know how she would go without the JLN brand. The National brand might help, but they’re are some high profile candidates running against her, it’s going to make it hard.

  16. 3 Lib 3 ALP likely, Garland and the Greens potentially fighting it out for the last seat with Nats and outside chance of taking either the 3rd Liberal or Labor seat is how I see this one shaping up early days.

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