Braddon – Tasmania 2025

Incumbent MPs

• Miriam Beswick (Independent), since 2024.¹
• Shane Broad (Labor), since 2017.
• Anita Dow (Labor), since 2018.
• Felix Ellis (Liberal), since 2021. Previously 2020–2021.
• Craig Garland (Independent), since 2024.
• Roger Jaensch (Liberal), since 2014.
• Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal), since 2002.

¹Beswick first sat as a member of the Jacqui Lambie Network but resigned from the party in August 2024.

• Geography
• History
• Candidates
• Assessment
• 2024 result
• Preference flows
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Latrobe, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.

History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.

From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.

The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.

The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.

The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This result was maintained in 2002, 2006 and 2010. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.

There was a 13% swing to the Liberal Party in 2014, while Labor lost 17% and the Greens lost 6%. 7% of the electorate voted for the Palmer United Party (at the time represented in the Senate by Jacqui Lambie). The Greens lost their sole seat, while Labor also lost one of their two seats. The Liberal Party doubled their representation from two to four.

The Liberal Party lost one of their four seats in 2018, with Labor regaining their second seat. This result was repeated in 2021, with the Liberal Party winning three seats to Labor’s two.

At the 2024 election, the number of seats in Braddon increased from five to seven. Liberal and Labor retained their three and two seats respectively. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s Miriam Beswick and independent Craig Garland won the other two seats.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor did very well in Braddon at the recent federal election, and would be hoping to gain at least a third seat. The Jacqui Lambie Network was also strong in this area, and comfortably won a seat last time. Miriam Beswick did not have much of a personal profile, so it is unclear if she can attract much of a vote as an independent. Craig Garland narrowly scraped by in 2024, in part dependent on the Greens vote staying low enough for him to stay ahead of them and gain their preferences. Garland will hope to have built his personal vote, but he’s only had one year as a sitting member.

2024 result

Preference flows

Premier Jeremy Rockliff polled over two quotas in his own right, while no other candidate polled a primary vote quota. Fellow Liberal Felix Ellis reached quota soon after when Rockliff’s surplus was distributed. Labor’s Anita Dow won the third seat as the count proceeded. A third Liberal is quite close to quota, while two others were neck-and-neck to be the potential fourth Liberal.

Let’s fast forward to the point where there are eight candidates competing for the final four seats, and Simpson defeated Mead to be the fourth Liberal contender by 0.009 quotas.

• Shane Broad (ALP) – 0.976 quotas
• Roger Jaensch (LIB) – 0.854
• Craig Garland (IND) – 0.607
• Miriam Beswick (JLN) – 0.553
• Darren Briggs (GRN) – 0.547
• James Redgrave (JLN) – 0.527
• Giovanna Simpson (LIB) – 0.443
• Vonette Mead (LIB) – 0.434

Mead’s preferences elected Jaensch to the fourth seat, and pushed Simpson into sixth place:

• Jaensch (LIB) – 1.030
• Broad (ALP) – 0.992
• Simpson (LIB) – 0.634
• Garland (IND) – 0.617
• Beswick (JLN) – 0.564
• Briggs (GRN) – 0.552
• Redgrave (JLN) – 0.538

Janesch’s small surplus mostly flowed to Simpson:

• Broad (ALP) – 0.992
• Simpson (LIB) – 0.661
• Garland (IND) – 0.617
• Beswick (JLN) – 0.565
• Briggs (GRN) – 0.552
• Redgrave (JLN) – 0.539

The exclusion of Redgrave, the second JLN candidate, pushed his colleague Beswick almost to a quota, but also elected Broad to the fifth seat:

• Broad (ALP) – 1.024
• Beswick (JLN) – 0.991
• Simpson (LIB) – 0.678
• Garland (IND) – 0.647
• Briggs (GRN) – 0.565

Broad’s surplus did little, but did bring Beswick to the verge of a quota:

• Beswick (JLN) – 0.998
• Simpson (LIB) – 0.680
• Garland (IND) – 0.650
• Briggs (GRN) – 0.567

Greens preferences pushed Beswick over quota and also put Garland in the lead for the final seat:

• Beswick (JLN) – 1.125
• Garland (IND) – 0.820
• Simpson (LIB) – 0.713

Beswick’s surplus favoured Garland and he won by 0.156 quotas:

• Garland (IND) – 0.886
• Simpson (LIB) – 0.730

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in the Circular Head, Waratah/Wynyard and West Coast LGAs were divided into North West and South West. Polling places in Devonport and Latrobe council areas have been grouped into one group. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast council areas have been grouped together separately.

Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.

The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in every area, ranging from 39.6% in Burnie to 59.2% on King Island. The Labor primary vote ranged from 18.4% in King Island to 30.7% in Burnie.

The Jacqui Lambie Network’s vote ranged from 5.7% on King Island to 15.3% in the south-west. Amongst the most populous areas, their vote was higher in Devonport-Latrobe and Central Coast than the North-West.

Craig Garland’s vote was much higher in the north-west than any other part.

Election results in Braddon at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Jacqui Lambie Network, the Greens and independent candidate Craig Garland.

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