Bass – Tasmania 2025

Incumbent MPs

• Rob Fairs (Liberal), since 2024.
• Michael Ferguson (Liberal), since 2010.
• Janie Finlay (Labor), since 2021.
• Michelle O’Byrne (Labor), since 2006.
• Rebekah Pentland (Independent), since 2024.¹
• Cecily Rosol (Greens), since 2024.
• Simon Wood (Liberal), since 2022.

¹Pentland first sat as a member of the Jacqui Lambie Network but resigned from the party in August 2024.

• Geography
• History
• Candidates
• Assessment
• 2024 result
• Preference flows
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography
Bass covers the north-eastern corner of Tasmania. It covers the Launceston, George Town, Dorset and West Tamar council areas. Bass also covers Tasmania’s north-eastern islands, including Flinders Island.

History
Bass was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Bass has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.

At the 1909 election, the Anti-Socialists won three seats, the ALP two and one seat went to the “Liberal Democrats” party. The ALP and the Liberals won three seats each at the 1912, 1913 and 1916 elections.

The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1919, although one of those four seats was lost to an independent in 1922.

The ALP and Nationalists maintained a 3-3 split at the 1925, 1928 and 1934 elections, with the Nationalists gaining a 4-2 majority in 1931.

The ALP won a majority in Bass for the first time in 1937, maintaining it until a 3-3 split was restored in 1948. Bass continued to elect even numbers of Liberals and Labor MPs from 1948 until 1959, when an expanded House of Assembly saw Bass elect a seventh seat, which went to an independent.

After the ALP and Liberals won three seats each at each election, the seventh Bass seat was traded back and forth from 1964 to 1986, with the ALP winning in 1964, 1972 and 1979, and the Liberals winning in 1969, 1976, 1982 and 1986.

Green independent Lance Armstrong won the seventh seat in 1989, and retained it in 1992, when the Liberals won a fourth seat off the ALP, who were reduced to two seats.

The ALP regained their third seat in 1996 at the expense of Armstrong, producing a 4-3 split favouring the Liberals.

The reduction of seats at the 1998 election hit the Liberal Party hard, who lost two of their four seats, while the ALP retained their three seats. The ALP lost one of those three seats to Kim Booth in 2002.

The 2-2-1 split was retained at the 2006 election, although former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne topped the poll and helped engineer the only pro-Labor swing in the state, almost defeating Booth, who won the final seat by a 136-vote margin over Labor candidate Steve Reissig.

Bass was the only electorate to maintain the party ratio in 2010, with 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens. Every other electorate shifted to the same proportion as Bass.

Sitting Labor MP Jim Cox and Liberal MP Sue Napier both retired. The poll was topped by former federal Liberal MP Michael Ferguson. For the second election in a row, a federal MP who had been defeated at the last federal election switched to state politics and topped the poll. Along with Michael Ferguson, the other open seat went to the ALP’s Brian Wightman.

The Liberal Party’s Sarah Courtney won a third seat for the party in 2014, with Labor’s Brian Wightman losing his seat.

The 2014 result was repeated in 2018 and 2021, with the Liberal Party winning three seats and Labor winning two seats.

In 2023, Liberal MP Lara Alexander quit the party to sit as an independent.

At the 2024 election, the Liberal Party regained its third seat and Labor held two seats, with the two new seats going to the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network. JLN member Rebekah Pentland resigned from her party in August 2024.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
The third Liberal seat could very well be in play, with Labor hoping to be able to win at least a third seat. Rebekah Pentland’s seat will also likely be in play, with the Lambie Network no longer the force it was in 2024.

2024 result

Preference flows

Then-deputy premier Michael Ferguson polled almost one and a half quotas in his own right, while Labor MPs Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay both polled just under a quota, far ahead of any other Labor candidates. No other candidate was close to a quota on primary votes.

Let’s fast forward to the point where there are nine candidates competing for the final four seats, with Ferguson, O’Byrne and Finlay already elected. Four Liberal candidates, two JLN candidates, one Labor candidate and one Shooters, Fishers & Farmers candidate remain:

• Rob Fairs (LIB) – 0.983 quotas
• Cecily Rosol (GRN) – 0.981
• Geoff Lyons (ALP) – 0.481
• Rebekah Pentland (JLN) – 0.478
• Simon Wood (LIB) – 0.472
• Julie Sladden (LIB) – 0.418
• Angela Armstrong (JLN) – 0.416
• Michal Frydrych (SFF) – 0.380
• Chris Gatenby (LIB) – 0.343

Gatenby’s surplus elected Fairs to the fourth seat, and boosted the other two Liberal candidates into the top seven:

• Fairs (LIB) – 1.081
• Rosol (GRN) – 0.985
• Wood (LIB) – 0.586
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.514
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.490
• Pentland (JLN) – 0.484
• Armstrong (JLN) – 0.419
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.389

Fairs’ surplus further boosted his Liberal colleagues, but Wood increased his lead on Sladden:

• Rosol (GRN) – 0.986
• Wood (LIB) – 0.629
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.545
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.491
• Pentland (JLN) – 0.485
• Armstrong (JLN) – 0.420
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.390

SFF preferences pushed Rosol over quota for the fifth seat, but more of his preferences flowed to the Liberal and JLN candidates, and even Labor, than to the Greens.

• Rosol (GRN) – 1.008
• Wood (LIB) – 0.684
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.585
• Pentland (JLN) – 0.544
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.540
• Armstrong (JLN) – 0.478

The slim Greens surplus barely changed anything:

• Wood (LIB) – 0.685
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.585
• Pentland (JLN) – 0.545
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.541
• Armstrong (JLN) – 0.479

Armstrong’s preferences, as expected, flowed very strongly to her fellow JLN candidate Pentland, putting her close to a quota:

• Pentland (JLN) – 0.917
• Wood (LIB) – 0.699
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.601
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.564

Labor preferences pushed Pentland over quota for the sixth seat. At this point Pentland’s surplus wasn’t enough for Sladden to close the gap on Wood for the final seat.

• Pentland (JLN) – 1.036
• Wood (LIB) – 0.752
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.636

Pentland’s surplus favoured Wood slightly, and he won by a margin of 0.117 quotas.

• Wood (LIB) – 0.761
• Sladden (LIB) – 0.644

Booth breakdown

Bass covers five local council areas. Most of the population lies in Launceston local government area. These booths have been split into Launceston North, Launceston South and Launceston Rural. A majority of the population lies in the Launceston urban area.

The Liberal vote was lowest in George Town and highest in Dorset.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 22.4% on Flinders Island to 31.5% in George Town. The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.3% in Dorset to 14.5% in Launceston North. The JLN vote ranged from 6.7% in Launceston North to 11.4% in George Town.

Election results in Bass at the 2024 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party, the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network.

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