LIB 22.4%
Incumbent MP
David Elliott, member for Baulkham Hills since 2011.
Geography
North-western Sydney. Castle Hill covers south-eastern parts of the Hills council area, including the suburbs of Annangrove, Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Glenhaven, Kenthurst, Middle Dural, West Pennant Hills and parts of Dural.
Redistribution
Despite the name, the new electorate of Castle Hill is primarily the successor of the former seat of Baulkham Hills, while the neighbouring seat of Kellyville takes in more of the former seat of Castle Hill.
52% of the enrolled voters in the former seat of Baulkham Hills have been moved into Castle Hill, along with 40.6% of the voters in the former seat of Castle Hill. 48.4% of voters in the new seat of Castle Hill came from Baulkham Hills, with 40.9% coming from the seat of Castle Hill.
The suburbs of Baulkham Hills and West Pennant Hills were transferred from Baulkham Hills. The suburbs of Castle Hill, Glenhaven, Dural and Annangrove were transferred from Castle Hill. Kenthurst and Middle Dural were transferred from Hawkesbury, while Rogans Hill was transferred from Epping.
The suburbs of Kellyville, Norwest and Bella Vista were transferred from Baulkham Hills to Kellyville, while North Rocks was transferred from Baulkham Hills to Epping.
The former seat of Baulkham Hills was won by the Liberal Party in 2019 by an 18.7% margin, but on the new boundaries the margin has increased to 22.4%.
History
The new seat of Castle Hill primarily replaces Baulkham Hills, which had existed since 1991. It has always been a safe Liberal seat. Prior to 1991, much of the same area had been covered by Carlingford from its creation in 1988 to its abolition in 1991.
Carlingford was won in 1988 by Liberal candidate Wayne Merton. Merton then won the new seat of Baulkham Hills in 1991, and held it until retiring in 2011. He served as a minister in the state Coalition government from 1992 to 1993.
While there have been two seats in the Hills since 1988, and they have both been solid Liberal seats, the boundaries of those seats have shifted. The other seat in the area was called The Hills until 2007, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.
Following Merton’s retirement in 2011, Baulkham Hills was won by the Liberal Party’s David Elliott. Elliott was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP for Baulkham Hills David Elliott is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Castle Hill is a very safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Elliott | Liberal | 30,040 | 59.7 | -4.8 | 64.1 |
| Ryan Tracey | Labor | 11,600 | 23.1 | +0.9 | 20.0 |
| Erica Hockley | Greens | 3,937 | 7.8 | -0.1 | 8.4 |
| Heather Boyd | Sustainable Australia | 1,380 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 3.2 |
| Craig Hall | Christian Democrats | 1,868 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 1.9 |
| Linda Newfield | Animal Justice | 1,485 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 1.7 |
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Informal | 1,302 | 2.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Elliott | Liberal | 31,658 | 68.7 | -3.1 | 72.4 |
| Ryan Tracey | Labor | 14,434 | 31.3 | +3.1 | 27.6 |
Booths in Castle Hill have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 68.5% in the south-west to 79.6% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 68.5 | 18,420 | 34.5 |
| North | 79.6 | 10,005 | 18.7 |
| South-East | 73.0 | 8,675 | 16.3 |
| Other votes | 69.8 | 10,051 | 18.8 |
| Pre-poll | 74.6 | 6,209 | 11.6 |
Election results in Castle Hill at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
@Adda
Let me speak as a person of colour.
1. I was offended when Dutton made comments that I as a Victorian was too scared to go out of my home because of African gangs. I braved African gangs on Saturday to ensure Dutton was humilated
2. I was offended when Dutton made the offer to White Farmers in South Africa.Why did Australia not have a special program during the Second Congo War which over 5 million people did and was the deadliest conflict since the Second World War. Why did Australia not have a program during the Rwandan Genocide when 800,000 people were killed over 100 days
3. Dutton made comments that refugees would take our jobs etc
4. In the US Race Depolarisation is occuring among Hispanics but not really among Blacks. I think in Canada the Conservatives do not have a bad reputation like Dutton. In the UK Conservatives are making inroads among Non Muslim South Asians but not Muslims. I agree NSW Liberals do well with ethnic minorities
Also i think ethnic deploarisation is occuring among Southern and Eastern Europeans in Australia especially later generations as they become more integrated and upwardly mobile i mentioned this in the Ballarat thread just earlier.
@Adda @Nimalan in the US, Muslims are sticking with the Democrats. Black and Hispanic women are still very Democrat, while Black and Hispanic men while still mostly Democrat are slowly trending Republican (it’s happening faster for Hispanic men).
In Australia it depends where you are on ethnic groups voting for who. Chinese and Japanese on the Gold Coast are more affluent and often vote LNP (if they’re citizens) while in Brisbane they live in more working-class suburbs and while Labor is the party they often vote for they have trended LNP (Sunnybank is more LNP than Moreton overall for example).
@ NP
With Black men there was a swing to Trump in 2024 but there was an equal swing among Black Women to Harris so no overall change. Also Hispanics are not a racial caterory IMHO and some who are assimilated and fair skinned can pass as Whte. The US Republicans have decent support among some Asian communities such as Vietnamese. In the US 78% of Jews vote Democratic at Presidential levels but in Australia the Liberals have had strong support among Jews.
@Nimalan, I think Southern and Eastern Europeans Australia is interesting in the sense that they are no longer viewed a minority but many still retains lots of their religious and socially conservative heritage. That might be why they no longer will view Pauline Hanson and its associated nationalism as offensive and in Melbourne they were probably the highest percentage that voted No to the Voice. This could be factor why Liberal Party are gradually making more inroads to this group.