Maribyrnong – Australia 2028

One booth in Kensington probably had the highest Labor 2PP of all the seats with a classic ALP vs Coalition contest in 2025. The Greens got 53% of the primary vote. There were double-digit primary vote swings to the Greens in Kensington and Flemington in 2025. This was part of a national trend of low-income areas and areas with public housing swinging to the Greens.

The Greens finished third in the seat overall. This means preferences from Greens voters had to be distributed to the two major parties. Most of them went to Labor.

Some booths in seats ALP vs Green contests have much higher Labor 2PPs e.g. Brunswick in Wills and Newtown in Grayndler/Sydney.

@ Votante

Nether Portal did a table with all booths over 80% TCP.

Some comments i made to Nether Portal
.What is interesting about your table this time compared to the one you did for the 2022 election is there are now working class outer suburban booths where there was no signficant third candidate for example
1. Airds North (Macarthur)
2. Bradbury (Macarthur)
3. Springvale Central (Hotham)
4. Dandenong South (Issacs)
5. Inala/Richlands (Oxley)
6. Port Norgulana (Kingston)
Last time the strongest Labor booths had strong Green vote for example Marrickville (Barton), Castlemaine etc. Someday Labor could like booths in Scullin, Gorton, Rankin, Chifley and Spence to appear on that list as well

https://jumpshare.com/share/7uGPEm0iOWulHIIedfXh

@Nimalan, that’s an insightful list. Most of the working-class, outer suburban booths you mentioned had either had a strong Labor primary vote of over 50% or a swing to the Greens.

In working-class electorates, one reason why the Liberals did better in 2022 was because the Covid pandemic made a lot of voters swing away from Labor and to right-wing, minor parties (and most of the preferences went to the Liberals). Also, Scott Morrison was more popular than Peter Dutton was.

I didn’t expect a rural locale, Tanja (Eden-Monaro), to have a Labor 2PP of beyond 90%.

Agree Votante
The lockdown swings were partly reversed this time around. Labor still has room to increase their vote in Booths like Thomastown, Lalor, Deer Park. Mount Druitt, Woodridge, Davoren Park etc so those electorates on the list may appear someday. I actually dont know much about Tanja will be good if a local can share insights.

@Nimalan @Votante – I think Tanja has bit of a hippie vibe to it, in 2022 the Greens polled 44% and in 2025 it was just over 45%. I’d assume it’s a similar story to some booths in Page/Richmond, small in size but with a big Green vote likely as a result of hippies/environmentally-conscious voters.

If Maribyrnong loses the northern end and extends into North Melbourne and the likes the Greens could well make the 2CP in the future, conversely if it extends north or west then the Liberals could close the gap but won’t get close given Essendon and Niddrie are the only places that are more likely to swing compared to the northern extremities which are trending Labor.

Thanks James for the info
@ Tommo9
I agree, the boundaries make it hard for either Greens or Libs to win eventhough both parties have areas where they do well in. If it extends into Keilor, Taylors Lake it will help Libs but not sure if well be able to over come the strong Labor vote in parts of the seat. It could also extend into Attwood parts of Greenvale (suburb not state electorate) it will help Liberals but may not be enough if it keeps the Southern end. The Southern end is also densifying so is probably helping Labor even is parts of the electorate around Niddrie are getting better for Libs.

The Kensington part should be put back into Melbourne.

@Spacefish I agree. It sticks out like a sore thumb in Maribyrnong.

Also, I’m pretty sure that’s where Adam Bandt lives/lived.

you could probably make an argument for just scappring the whole seat and splitting it off. you could then have the city of mooney valley nad marbyrnong in one seat brimbank in its own seat. merri-bek all in wills and split hume between calwell and hawke.

I would have Maribyrnong only covering Moonee Ponds, Essendon, Essendon North, Niddrie, Keilor, Keilor East, if that was short of quota, then add the area west of 58 tram – Brunswick West and Pascoe Vale South. Then, put Flemington and Footscray into Gellibrand, which frees up the western end of Gellibrand for Lalor.

Opps left Strathmore out.

Bant lives in Flemington, not Kensington

Maribyrnong is growing faster than the average at the moment, i would have it as city of Moonee Valley plus Merri-beks box forrest and Djirri-Djirri wards. This ould give it an enrollment of just over 114,250 electors.

Ait no longer needs to have the city of Maribrynong in it

@moonlight it doesnt even have the city of Maribyrnong in it anyway. its all in Fraser

John, you said above that “you could then have the city of mooney valley nad marbyrnong in one seat” so i was commenting that it doesn’t need to go that way anymore

@ Pencil, in your proposal, where are you putting Ascot Vale and Travencore?

More importantly what’s happened to Fraser?

Marinyenong would be moonee valley and about half of marinyenong on current numbers and then fraser would be the other half and move further into brimbank and lose Hobson’s bay to gellibrand.

Alternatively fraser can be all of marinyenong and part of moonee valley and marinyenong can be the brimbank seat.

Correction. Fraser would probably move further south into Hobson’s bay and lose parts of brombank to gorton

Captain Moonlight, I would keep Ascot Vale and Travencore in Maribyrnong, i would want to keep all the City of Moonee Valley within the one federal seat.