Ben is joined by Shaun Ratcliff from Accent Research to discuss his recent report looking at differences in voting trends across the generations. We discuss how Millenials and Gen Z voters are much more left-wing than Baby Boomers, explore some theories as to why, and look at evidence as to which of those theories may be right. We then discuss what this implies for the next few decades of Australian politics.
Read Shaun’s report at Accent Research.
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A similar trend was observed by an American pollster on Planet America last Wednesday.
It seems that around the world younger people are facing so many crises any they don’t feel any of the major parties are really doing anything about it, that they are choosing alternative parties (left and right). Is this turning into a repeat of 1968?
Interesting discussion which i found quite astute and profound. I really found the socialization component which impacts cohorts effects quite interesting. Millennial’s were the first generation to experience a multiracial society from childhood. Baby Boomers experienced a multiethnic society as they would have been the first generation to grow up with Continental Europeans from childhood. It is interesting that Generation Alpha will be the first generation where they will experience seeing Non European Australians who are family friends with their parents at the Australia Day BBQ and seeing adults of Non European heritage speaking with Aussie accents and sounding like their parents even if they don’t look like them.
A couple of other points and observations
1. Shaun mentioned that the younger generations are not necessarily to the left economically. This has impacts on the Teal areas it shows that trends are not likely to benefit Labor in such as areas if there is a centrist option instead. For example provided there is a Teal i do not think Hawthorn will be won by Labor again (Teal outpollled Labor on all booths along Glenferrie Road) and Labor probably missed out its chance to win North Sydney or Brisbane in 2022 and may not get this chance again.
2. Lifecycle versus Cohorts effects in Growth areas/mortgage belt. This area is where Australian elections are often won and lost. Voters in these areas are at a different lifecycle stage to the counterparts in young rental areas in inner cities such as South Yarra, Hawthorn etc. These voters usually have purchased property married and in many cases had children. However, the cohorts effects should still be analysed. These voters are still younger, very few baby boomers and socialized in a different environment. Looking at demographics of growth areas is that they often have a higher % of overseas born, speaking a language other than English and identification with a Non-Christian religion. (https://profile.id.com.au/ngaa/language)
In Melbourne especially, the Growth areas are significantly more diverse than Greater Melbourne as a whole. For this reason, i often describe Growth Areas as tomorrow’s Australia in contrast to Lyons which seems to be yesterday’s Australia. If Cohort effects explain much of the reasons why Libs are underperfoming among younger generation then the future of the Libs in many growth areas does not look as promising although it is still better than the young renter seats i mentioned earlier due to these areas being adjusted for life cycle effects.