New England – Australia 2028

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73 COMMENTS

  2. Bridget McKenzie said that Barnaby Joyce’s legacy will be tarnished if he joins One Nation. I’m inclined to agree.

  6. Antic has just been reelected. Canavan probly isnt going anywhere. If Landry retires and the qld redistribution is favourable enough he may run in the lower house. He has ambitions to be leader so i doubt hes going anywhere.

  8. I am sick and tired of people being elected as a party member…then deciding to leave that party and become independent. Barnaby should now resign and recontest the seat as an independent. But no…. not the integrity to do that does not exist.

  12. @Mick You know, I’d rather an MP leave their party to sit as an independent, than a Senator doing it.

    Because let’s be fair here, a Senate vote is a vote for a party (except in the ACT and Tassie, where Pocock and Lambie do well). No one really looks at the names on the ticket of a party, they’ll just vote for the party regardless. At least with an MP, that MP’s name is directly on a ballot paper.

    Of course, neither situation is ideal, but those are my two cents.

  13. The solution for the senate is the newly independent mp resigns and the seat is filled by the party who they represented.
    Re lower house the newly independent. Mp should resign and if they wish recontest as an independent.
    To do other than this is fraud

  14. “Barnaby should now resign and recontest the seat as an independent. But no…. not the integrity to do that does not exist.”

    @Mick

    Mick I agree with the spirit of what your saying. But Barnaby is retiring as the member of New England at the next election anyway. It’s a fruitless exercise him resigning and recontesting the bye-election. It’s a waste of tax payers money.

  15. I disagree with the principle that MPs or Senators who switch party ought to have any compulsion to resign. Voters are always voting for individual candidates, not parties. That is the reality of our voting system, and that is the reality of our constitution. If that idea is so objectionable and far removed from perception, then that is a reflection that the voting system is inadequate. But until the voting system changes, the reality is that voters are voting for individual candidates. If voters find it so objectionable for an MP or Senator to switch parties, then they can express by not voting for candidates who affiliate with parties that have a record of defections, or by not voting for “mavericks”.

  16. Joyce may have played a game of bluff and lost. Canavan was chastising him in the media yesterday, pot calling kettle?
    He can always reconsider and recontest, if things tighten for Labor they’d rather have a Katter type ratbag in New England than a future cabinet minister looking at a 30 year career.
    Hard to say what his personal vote is, since he’s never faced opposition at any of the last 5 elections.
    Windsor looked dangerous in ’16, then some scuttlebutt from his boarding school days in the 60s hit the front pages 10 days out.
    Richard Torbay was another mooted to run, turned out Labor had been secretly funding his campaigns in Northern Tablelands in the 90s, if I remember correctly?
    Bottom line, don’t write lucky Barnaby off yet.

  17. Barnabys 67 he’s not gonna be around forever. He can retire and live off his pension and Vicki if he wanted too but I think a onp senate career could be on the cards for at least a 6 year term

  18. The integrity of the electoral process is the important issue. Lydia Thorpe
    Ms payman…. the lady who left greens to join the alp and now Barnaby……are underming this principle.

  19. Nicholas
    Lydia Thorpe was elected as a green
    And Bsrnaby was elected as a nat
    Would either win otherwise probably not. Why let them debase democracy…

  21. Party defections have nothing to do with “the integrity of the electoral process”. Voters voted for Thorpe, Payman, Cox, and Joyce.

  26. I think it depends. If it’s Liberal←→National then it’s fine but if it’s to two completely different parties then it’s a dick move, since the majority of voters pick candidates based on their party affiliation, but it isn’t free to run a by-election so I agree with Nick that it’s a waste of taxpayer money.

  27. If we look at overlapping state results, the state MPs do better than Barnaby Joyce, getting over 80% of the TPP vote which is higher than Joyce whose percent sits usually in the 70s.

  29. In the House, you vote for a person – not their party. In the senate, especially if you vote above the line, you vote for the party so there is an argument that if they resign you are not getting what you vote for. What if the member is expelled or asked to leave? Where does the logic stand?

  32. Most people vote based on the party or the leader. Not often do they vote specifically because of th candidate.That is according to the latest Australian Election Study.

    As for Barnaby Joyce, I read he will run for the senate for One Nation and maybe even take over as the leader when Pauline Hanson retires.

  33. Barnaby has no integrity, this is all bout his ego. He has no principles too, note his silence on climate when he had ministerial positions and how he has still quit despite Little lproud adopting his position.

  34. Barbaby might still have something to prove re Maranoa?
    Running under the KAP banner, he might do alright if the funding is there.
    Canavan might do better in Capricornia under KAP too, certainly Labor would rather them than the National Party.

  35. @nether portal because barnaby seat contains some pretty decent labor booths.

    @mick not really its taxpayers money that could be better spent elsewhere. The voters can judge said mp at the next election.

    @spacefiah with the onp vote on the rise he probly would win a seat.onp has been slowly eating at the lnp vote as the greens did to labor.

    @gympie barnaby would never be a katter. And he’d never win maranoa. Canavan would never run with katter he’s got leadership ambitions and wants to be the deputy pm. That’s not happening in kap

  36. @spacefish if Barnaby is running for One Nation he’ll win a senate spot in NSW. They were able to win one in a poor year for the right, and One Nation is currently doing well in the polls.

    I (unfortunately) expect One Nation to do about as well in 2028 as they did in 2025.

  37. Barnaby Joyce quitting the Nationals is a big win for the Coalition because he has been a massive drag on the Liberal vote in the cities. Even Peter Dutton knew this and he twice asked Joyce to leave the National Party. However, speculation surrounding Joyce’s political future has been damaging for the Coalition, because it highlights internal divisions within the Coalition, forces the Coalition to talk about itself and stops them from turning up the heat on the Labor government.

    The prospect of Joyce joining One Nation has worried the Nationals because if Joyce joins One Nation, he will bring a lot of Nationals voters with him to One Nation due to his high profile and bolster One Nation’s position as a right-wing alternative to the Coalition.

    Even before Joyce’s departure from the Nationals, former chairman of the National Party’s Tamworth branch in Joyce’s electorate of New Englad as well as 12 members had defected to One Nation. One Nation is slowly eating up more and more Coalition votes and the Coalition seems powerless to stop it.

  38. I am not sure I would categorise Joyce’s departure from the Nats as a big win for the Coalition. It is not like the Coalition, more specifically the Liberal Party, has been trying to go one way, while Joyce has been going another. To many, the Liberals dropping Net-Zero makes it look like the Nats are in control. The temporary break-up after the election, the fact that just about everyone is undermining Sussan Ley and Andrew Hastie, the nostalgia tour, Net-Zero, and Joyce make the whole centre-right look like a herd of cats.

    Since Joyce finally broke with the Nats, we all basically assume (with some degree of certainty) that he will end up with One Nation if he chooses to continue in politics. He won’t be going back to the Nats, although I am not sure who all of this hurts more, the Nats themselves or the Coalition in general.

    I wonder if his not jumping to ON at this moment has anything to do with Hanson’s stunt about the burqa in the Senate. It shifts the discussion from a legitimate issue of immigration to baseless discrimination. Joyce has stated in the past that he opposes a burqa ban.

    Most of this drama is playing out over voters 50+. Long term, this does little to position any of the parties for the elections in 2031 or beyond. According to RedBridge, the average age of ON and Coalition is 55. Labor is 38, and the Greens are 31.

    I am not 100% convinced Joyce won’t contest New England as an ON candidate. 80% maybe, but not totally. It depends on how ON performs over the next year or two and on the dynamic between the Nats and the Libs in the Coalition.

  40. Barnaby knows the lnp won’t recover enough to win in 2028…he knows he will never be a minister again.so he decided to retire. The resignation is just payback to the leadership of the nats

  41. Albanese remarked Joyce might be stepping across the border in QT yesterday. He hasn’t retired, he’s only not recontesting New England. That could mean Hanson is retiring and he’ll stand in Qld, which would make more sense than NSW.

  43. Yea probably though it will depend on Pauline does at the next election. I think she has at least one more election in her. Ashby could give keppelanpther go twice in that time.

  50. This could be an opportunity for Warren Mundine too. He comes from Sort of this area not exactly but close enough born in Grafton councillor in Dubbo.

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