IND 3.9% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Zoe Daniel, since 2022.
Geography
Inner southern suburbs of Melbourne. Goldstein covers the entirety of Bayside council area, and parts of Glen Eira and Kingston council areas. Key suburbs include Sandringham, Brighton, Hampton, Beaumaris, Ormond and Bentleigh.
Redistribution
Goldstein expanded slightly east, taking in part of Bentleigh East from Hotham and part of Moorabbin and the remainder of Highett from Isaacs.
History
Goldstein was first created in 1984, but is considered a successor to the previous Division of Balaclava, which existed from the first federal election in 1901 until its abolition in 1984. The two seats have a perfect record of having never been won by the Labor Party, and they have been held continously by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since the two non-Labor parties merged in 1909.
Balaclava was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate George Turner. Turner had been Premier of Victoria from 1894 to 1899 and again from 1900 until early in 1901, and was the state MP for St Kilda. Turner was Treasurer in Edmund Barton’s first federal government. He won re-election as a Protectionist in 1903 but he accepted the role of Treasurer in George Reid’s Free Trade government in 1904, which effectively saw him switch parties. Turner retired in 1906.
Balaclava was won in 1906 by Independent Protectionist candidate Agar Wynne. Wynne was a former minister in Victorian colonial governments. He joined the newly created Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909 and served in Joseph Cook’s government from 1913 to 1914. Wynne did not run for re-election in 1914, although he returned to Victorian state politics from 1917 to 1920 and briefly served as a state minister.
Balaclava was won in 1914 by Liberal candidate William Watt. Watt had been Premier of Victoria from 1912 to 1914, and became a federal minister in 1917 as part of the new Nationalist government led by former Labor prime minister Billy Hughes. Watt was appointed Treasurer in 1918 and served as Acting Prime Minister when Hughes traveled to the Versailles peace conference in 1919.
Watt, however, fell out with Hughes upon his return. He was appointed as a representative of the Australian government at a conference on reparations, but Hughes’ constant meddling led him to resign as Treasurer and return to Australia as a backbencher.
Watt was one of a small group of rebel Liberals who ran as the Liberal Union party in 1922, and won re-election. They rejoined the Nationalists after Hughes was replaced by Stanley Bruce, and Watt became Speaker, serving in the role until 1926. He retired from Balaclava in 1929.
Watt’s retirement triggered a by-election, which was won by Nationalist candidate Thomas White. White served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1933 to 1938, and served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his resignation in 1951.
Balaclava was won at the 1951 by-election by Liberal candidate Percy Joske. He held the seat until his resignation in 1960, when he was appointed as a judge on the Commonwealth Industrial Court. The 1960 by-election was won by Ray Whittorn, also from the Liberal Party. He held the seat until his retirement at the 1974 election.
Balaclava was won in 1974 by Ian Macphee, who served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1976 to 1983. In 1984, the seat of Balaclava was abolished and replaced by the seat of Goldstein, and Macphee won the new seat.
Macphee was a Liberal moderate, and took Andrew Peacock’s side in his conflict with John Howard throughout the 1980s. Macphee served as a shadow minister under Peacock, but was sacked in 1987 by Howard. He was defeated for preselection before the 1990 election by right-wing candidate David Kemp.
Kemp won Goldstein in 1990, and immediately went onto the opposition frontbench. Kemp joined the ministry upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served as a minister until three months before his retirement in 2004.
Goldstein was won in 2004 by the Liberal Party’s Andrew Robb, who had been the party’s Federal Director at the 1996 election. Robb was re-elected four times before retiring in 2016.
Robb was succeeded in 2016 by Tim Wilson, a former Human Rights Commissioner. Wilson was re-elected in 2019.
Wilson was defeated in 2022 by independent candidate Zoe Daniel.
Assessment
Goldstein is marginal, but Zoe Daniel as a first-term independent will likely benefit from a personal vote. History suggests that vote could be quite big.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 39,607 | 40.4 | -12.3 | 39.6 |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 33,815 | 34.5 | +34.5 | 31.3 |
| Martyn Abbott | Labor | 10,799 | 11.0 | -17.3 | 13.6 |
| Alana Galli-McRostie | Greens | 7,683 | 7.8 | -6.2 | 8.4 |
| David Segal | Liberal Democrats | 2,072 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Reynolds | United Australia | 1,840 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 2.1 |
| Lisa Stark | One Nation | 1,239 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.4 |
| Ellie Jean Sullivan | Hinch’s Justice Party | 589 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Brandon Hoult | Sustainable Australia | 443 | 0.5 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 3,487 | 3.4 | +1.2 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 51,861 | 52.9 | 53.9 | |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 46,226 | 47.1 | 46.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 53,750 | 54.8 | -3.0 | 53.7 |
| Martyn Abbott | Labor | 44,337 | 45.2 | +3.0 | 46.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayside City or Kingston City have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Brighton, Sandringham and Beaumaris. Booths in Glen Eira council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party narrowly won the two-candidate-preferred vote in Brighton. The three other areas include booths added from neighbouring seats, but in those areas the combined independent and Labor two-candidate-preferred vote was a majority, ranging from 53.3% in Beaumaris to 58.8% in Glen Eira.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND+ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Glen Eira | 18.0 | 58.8 | 16,440 | 15.2 |
| Sandringham | 15.1 | 58.0 | 12,688 | 11.7 |
| Brighton | 7.9 | 49.9 | 10,427 | 9.7 |
| Beaumaris | 9.8 | 53.3 | 7,813 | 7.2 |
| Pre-poll | 12.3 | 53.3 | 37,614 | 34.8 |
| Other votes | 15.6 | 48.1 | 23,069 | 21.4 |
Election results in Goldstein at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent or Labor vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
@Real Talk except compare the swing to or from her in Kooyong to the swings towards the teals in Sydney and Perth. The Melbourne teals have underperformed compared to them.
@Nimalan I do agree that they should’ve spent more money in A. defending the seats they already had and B. picking up key marginals. However I don’t think this election will affect the results of the 2026 Victorian state election. Amelia Hamer could easily win an overlapping state seat such as Hawthorn if John Pesutto quits.
Wasn’t having a shot at either of you. Just amused that the denizens of Kooyong somehow shouldn’t be able to pick the candidate of their collective choice. The voters always get it right.
@ Real Talk
i 100% agree that the people of Kooyong got it right and respect Monique Ryan’s victory. No disagreement about that. I was giving advice to the Libs on how to be more competative and focused. I oppose the Americanisation of Australian politics and would have personally preferred if Dutton announced a 2030 emissions target.
Had the libs not stuff up ryan would have lost same with Chaney. Maybe mackellar goo. But nooo
Al tim wilsons haters are rueing this day. Against the grain.
The ALP would be happy to see Tim on the front bench
@NP, the state seat of Hawthorn doesn’t include all the most Liberal suburbs of Kooyong, so with the loss of Pesutto’s personal vote (and promise of being party leader from 2022) and slim margin, I think a good teal like Rob Baillieu would win it even over Amelia.
Bazza hes proba bnly the only liberal who could have pulled this off. So its one more seat in tge bank
@Trent I still think she could do it. She’s not exactly John Pesutto but her views are pretty much the same.
Amelia Hamer would be better s erved commiting to a rethrow in 2028.
The talk about the relative position of the various teals on the political spectrum feels very ‘inside baseball’. Based on their voting records the teals are all very close together ( https://patleslie.net/blogs/blog_teals/blog_post.html ), with Spender only a bit more right. Even if the difference was bigger, it’s very hard to believe that many voters are paying attention to these differences and distinguishing between teals in this way.
That said, it is interesting that the Vic teals have gone slightly backwards, it feels hard to name a satisfying reason in this environment. You could argue that the blue-ribbon electorates thought the teals were too left in practice, but then (based on the above) it’s surprising that NSW teals gained ground (not just Spender). You could say it’s a Melbourne thing, but Melbourne largely swung against the Liberals. People talked about the Jewish vote, but that’s true of Wentworth as well (and it didn’t show up much in Macnamara). The Kooyong contest was messy, but Goldstein wasn’t. Etc.
Was the hold in vote in Goldstein and Kooyong one of the few wins from Dutton’s strategy of going all in on supporting Israel?
Is the Jewish vote the main reason why this was the only teal seat lost?
@Bumbalo, well for starters it’s not lost just yet.
As for the reasoning I think it could be one factor, but Tim Wilson is also a popular high-profile candidate as he was a minister in the Morrison government.
@ NP
Tim Wilson also supported climate targets is very Pro-Israel he also supported Turnbull against Dutton in the 2018 Leadership spills.
Liberals are now leading here, postals seem to be sprinting towards them. Around a 300 vote lead at the moment.
I do feel I need to question the results here. Yes Tim Wilson was a former MP and a moderate but a lot of thecommentary here was that he was unlikeable and that Zoe Daniel provided a safer alternative for small-L Liberals. I don’t know if there was a local factor or two involved, but the fact the Liberals are on edge to claim here when most of the observations were that Daniel would improve or go backwards slightly is extraordinary.
There definitely seemed to be a swing towards the Liberals in the more Jewish areas.
I worked out the 2PP swings in Macnamara by suburb that each polling place is located in, and the Liberal 2PP swings across the seat ranged from -6% (Albert Park) to +0.5% (Caulfield East & Middle Park) everywhere except two suburbs:
– Caulfield (+6%)
– Caulfield North (+3%)
They are by far the two most Jewish suburbs in the seat. The postal vote there is also currently showing a +7.5% 2PP swing to the Liberals, and while postals are always better for the Liberals, that doesn’t mean the *swing* should necessarily be any different than elsewhere.
That’s consistent with Goldstein where the Libs’ biggest primary vote swings were in Caulfield South (the most Jewish suburb) and the postal vote.
So I think there’s definitely evidence of a pro-Liberal swing in the more Jewish areas.
I worded the above badly, those swings are by suburb so they group together all the polling places within a suburb’s boundary.
on the ABC coverage, Wilson was bragging about his high primary vote in Caulfield South
Yeah the ‘Caulfield South East’ booth had a +8.4% swing to Wilson, and the ‘Caulfield South Central’ booth had a +5.2% swing to Wilson. Brighton East is also quite Jewish (9%) and also right next to Caulfield South so no doubt attracted some Caulfield South voters, and that had a +7.7% swing.
For context, the average swing to Wilson in election day booths was +2% (which those booths probably contributed quite a bit to). There were further swings away from Wilson in suburbs like Beaumaris and Sandringham.
@ Trent
I am not seeing much of the same trend in Wentworth (Rose Bay, Dover Heights and North Bondi are very Jewish). Maybe Allegra Spender appealed more
Allegra spender was less controversial towards the Jewish population add into that her seat took in some more labor territory and the fact the state govt isn’t as bad.
The Liberals have taken the lead in the race for Goldstein for the first time since the election was called for Labor.
Sky News has called the seat for Tim Wilson.
@Nimalan, I think the Liberals didn’t put as much effort into Wentworth as it was seen as pretty safe for Spender. Whereas they really went on the attack to paint Zoe Daniels as “anti-Semitic” (complete BS in my opinion) in Goldstein.
And to all those people who doubted tim wilson as a has been.
@ Trent
I am guessing they did the same in parts of Kooyong which have a large Jewish community such as Malvern, Glen Iris, Armadale etc and try and suggest that Monique Ryan was Pro-Palestine. The principal of Bialik college attacked Monique Ryan. Link below
Bradfield has a Jewish community in parts of the seat and maybe the same happened there as well
Marh pointed out in the Macnamara thread that Jewish areas in Canada had a big swing to the Conservatives last week.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/teal-mp-monique-ryan-slammed-by-jewish-school-principal-for-unacceptable-social-media-comment-about-israelhamas-war/news-story/a14dd886f8cd11b39a6dff80749072c9
I wouldn’t say Tim Wilson is a “has been” – just not someone I would like to see in parliament in Australia
@Nimalan the main Jewish population in Bradfield would be around St Ives and didn’t see a noticable vote there. They seemed to favour Lib v IND in TCP – however Lib primary dropped while both Labor and IND primary looked to increase
If you’re asking why Allegra Spender in Wentworth was not affected with the swings, I think it is that the Jewish community in Wentworth already had a extremely High Liberal Vote to start with to the extent it might not had affected Spender margins given they tend to live in areas that are the richest places in Australia like Dover Heights which tends to have a already Lower Teal support to start with.
Could the main difference between the Sydney and Melbourne teals simply be the amount of targeted effort the Libs put in? Wentworth & Warringah were overwhelmingly seen as safe, and had bigger margins. Whereas Goldstein & Kooyong were already very marginal, and the Libs were expecting Victoria to be more favourable to them generally, so they put in more effort?
ABC has projected this as a Liberal gain.
Spender voted in favour of the Hate Crimes bill, Zoe Daniel voted against. Evidently the liberals leveraged this to their advantage here.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r7240
@Marh
Partially true, but there was still a notable swing in those areas that have a high Jewish population.
It was just offset by boundary changes that expanded the electorate further west nearer to the city where Libs perform super poorly.
Knox did fairly well under the circumstances.
Libs were never gonna win wentworth. In fact having spender there might just hold off labor winning the seat in the short term
@James was just about to say this.
Tim Wilson, after losing his seat to Zoe Daniel last time has made a stunning comeback. Stunning given the electoral mood I should say plus how toxic Dutton moving the party to the right would’ve been here.
When I die, bury me in a Tim Wilson shirt because I just might come back. Congratulations Tim!
I don’t think Israel/Palestine is really why he won. It’s a wedge issue that really doesn’t affect Australia. I think people just weren’t happy with Zoe Daniel and thought even if they didn’t like Dutton they’d rather have Tim Wilson as their MP than Zoe Daniel.
@nether portal hes also defied all his critcs both in the media nationally and here on tallyroom.com.au people kept saying hamer had a bettwr chance and that wilson would be rejected.
This may end up being the only* Liberal/LNP/National coalition in what has been a truly awful election for them. The pick up is from the cross-bench and they look like picking up nothing from Labor. Also the win will be in an inner city seat rather than an outer suburban seat which is what they were targeting
* Not counting Bulkwinkel as it is a new seat
Bazza. Bendigo….
bazzaMarch 21, 2025 at 11:52 am
“hopefully Tim wilson can move on after this election”
I hope daniel can too
Tommo9April 22, 2025 at 9:21 pm
“@John Of course they would say that. It’s the same as if they said they can get Melbourne or Grayndler. It’s all party talk but not a lot of substance.”
Evidently not
Glen PlummerApril 24, 2025 at 9:07 am
“Living in Goldstein I’m gobsmacked at the lack of substance offered by LNP supporting their banner headlines. No door knocking or presence (in Hampton) but concentrated in Bay Street and Church street Brighton. I have no doubt LNP will win the Brighton booths and get smashed across the rest of the seat. Local matters here.”
Nope
It seems someone loves Tim Wilson almost as much as Tim does
surpised to see that Goldstein is actually one of the older electorates in the country. Though may also be the richest (in terms of income) to be held by the Liberals (depending on Bradfield)
Not really just showing how all the doubters here got it wrong. @john said they were gonna w ijn and you though he was crazy.
If you make enough predictions I am sure at least one could be right
One of the first things that Tim Wilson said when he got his old seat back, was that Nuclear is the way to go. This buffoon clearly hasn’t read the room. The people have spoken, across the country, and they have said a resounding NO to NUCLEAR!
Mondays i dont think they were voting against nuclear in particular. If we go to 100% renewables we will bankrupt this country and everyone in it. The only people who benefit is china and the vested overseas interests. Not to mention the rolling blackouts and rationing of electricity.
smh reporting that Daniel is not yet conceding and has Wilson leading by 1,362 votes with 4,690 postals to be processed. Seems unlikely to get close
@Trent, “So I think there’s definitely evidence of a pro-Liberal swing in the more Jewish areas.”
You might be right. The prepoll centres in Malvern and Caulfield had the biggest swings.
The primary vote swing to the Liberals on postals was over 8%. It might also be because of the really good postal vote campaign by the Liberals.
I also noticed that the ordinary voting polling booths with biggest primary vote swings include Brighton North and Caulfield South West.
@john ABC projecting Bendigo has been retained by Labor.
Also looks like ALP still ahead in Bulwinkel
looks like this could be the only Liberal/LNP/Nats/Country Liberal pickup with none coming from Labor. Kind of odd to have the only pick up an inner city electorate with a moderate MP when the strategy was to win over the outer suburban voters with conservatives