IND 3.9% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Zoe Daniel, since 2022.
Geography
Inner southern suburbs of Melbourne. Goldstein covers the entirety of Bayside council area, and parts of Glen Eira and Kingston council areas. Key suburbs include Sandringham, Brighton, Hampton, Beaumaris, Ormond and Bentleigh.
Redistribution
Goldstein expanded slightly east, taking in part of Bentleigh East from Hotham and part of Moorabbin and the remainder of Highett from Isaacs.
History
Goldstein was first created in 1984, but is considered a successor to the previous Division of Balaclava, which existed from the first federal election in 1901 until its abolition in 1984. The two seats have a perfect record of having never been won by the Labor Party, and they have been held continously by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since the two non-Labor parties merged in 1909.
Balaclava was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate George Turner. Turner had been Premier of Victoria from 1894 to 1899 and again from 1900 until early in 1901, and was the state MP for St Kilda. Turner was Treasurer in Edmund Barton’s first federal government. He won re-election as a Protectionist in 1903 but he accepted the role of Treasurer in George Reid’s Free Trade government in 1904, which effectively saw him switch parties. Turner retired in 1906.
Balaclava was won in 1906 by Independent Protectionist candidate Agar Wynne. Wynne was a former minister in Victorian colonial governments. He joined the newly created Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909 and served in Joseph Cook’s government from 1913 to 1914. Wynne did not run for re-election in 1914, although he returned to Victorian state politics from 1917 to 1920 and briefly served as a state minister.
Balaclava was won in 1914 by Liberal candidate William Watt. Watt had been Premier of Victoria from 1912 to 1914, and became a federal minister in 1917 as part of the new Nationalist government led by former Labor prime minister Billy Hughes. Watt was appointed Treasurer in 1918 and served as Acting Prime Minister when Hughes traveled to the Versailles peace conference in 1919.
Watt, however, fell out with Hughes upon his return. He was appointed as a representative of the Australian government at a conference on reparations, but Hughes’ constant meddling led him to resign as Treasurer and return to Australia as a backbencher.
Watt was one of a small group of rebel Liberals who ran as the Liberal Union party in 1922, and won re-election. They rejoined the Nationalists after Hughes was replaced by Stanley Bruce, and Watt became Speaker, serving in the role until 1926. He retired from Balaclava in 1929.
Watt’s retirement triggered a by-election, which was won by Nationalist candidate Thomas White. White served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1933 to 1938, and served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his resignation in 1951.
Balaclava was won at the 1951 by-election by Liberal candidate Percy Joske. He held the seat until his resignation in 1960, when he was appointed as a judge on the Commonwealth Industrial Court. The 1960 by-election was won by Ray Whittorn, also from the Liberal Party. He held the seat until his retirement at the 1974 election.
Balaclava was won in 1974 by Ian Macphee, who served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1976 to 1983. In 1984, the seat of Balaclava was abolished and replaced by the seat of Goldstein, and Macphee won the new seat.
Macphee was a Liberal moderate, and took Andrew Peacock’s side in his conflict with John Howard throughout the 1980s. Macphee served as a shadow minister under Peacock, but was sacked in 1987 by Howard. He was defeated for preselection before the 1990 election by right-wing candidate David Kemp.
Kemp won Goldstein in 1990, and immediately went onto the opposition frontbench. Kemp joined the ministry upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served as a minister until three months before his retirement in 2004.
Goldstein was won in 2004 by the Liberal Party’s Andrew Robb, who had been the party’s Federal Director at the 1996 election. Robb was re-elected four times before retiring in 2016.
Robb was succeeded in 2016 by Tim Wilson, a former Human Rights Commissioner. Wilson was re-elected in 2019.
Wilson was defeated in 2022 by independent candidate Zoe Daniel.
Assessment
Goldstein is marginal, but Zoe Daniel as a first-term independent will likely benefit from a personal vote. History suggests that vote could be quite big.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 39,607 | 40.4 | -12.3 | 39.6 |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 33,815 | 34.5 | +34.5 | 31.3 |
| Martyn Abbott | Labor | 10,799 | 11.0 | -17.3 | 13.6 |
| Alana Galli-McRostie | Greens | 7,683 | 7.8 | -6.2 | 8.4 |
| David Segal | Liberal Democrats | 2,072 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Reynolds | United Australia | 1,840 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 2.1 |
| Lisa Stark | One Nation | 1,239 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.4 |
| Ellie Jean Sullivan | Hinch’s Justice Party | 589 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Brandon Hoult | Sustainable Australia | 443 | 0.5 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 3,487 | 3.4 | +1.2 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 51,861 | 52.9 | 53.9 | |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 46,226 | 47.1 | 46.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 53,750 | 54.8 | -3.0 | 53.7 |
| Martyn Abbott | Labor | 44,337 | 45.2 | +3.0 | 46.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayside City or Kingston City have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Brighton, Sandringham and Beaumaris. Booths in Glen Eira council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party narrowly won the two-candidate-preferred vote in Brighton. The three other areas include booths added from neighbouring seats, but in those areas the combined independent and Labor two-candidate-preferred vote was a majority, ranging from 53.3% in Beaumaris to 58.8% in Glen Eira.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND+ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Glen Eira | 18.0 | 58.8 | 16,440 | 15.2 |
| Sandringham | 15.1 | 58.0 | 12,688 | 11.7 |
| Brighton | 7.9 | 49.9 | 10,427 | 9.7 |
| Beaumaris | 9.8 | 53.3 | 7,813 | 7.2 |
| Pre-poll | 12.3 | 53.3 | 37,614 | 34.8 |
| Other votes | 15.6 | 48.1 | 23,069 | 21.4 |
Election results in Goldstein at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent or Labor vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
@Real Talk except compare the swing to or from her in Kooyong to the swings towards the teals in Sydney and Perth. The Melbourne teals have underperformed compared to them.
@Nimalan I do agree that they should’ve spent more money in A. defending the seats they already had and B. picking up key marginals. However I don’t think this election will affect the results of the 2026 Victorian state election. Amelia Hamer could easily win an overlapping state seat such as Hawthorn if John Pesutto quits.
Wasn’t having a shot at either of you. Just amused that the denizens of Kooyong somehow shouldn’t be able to pick the candidate of their collective choice. The voters always get it right.
@ Real Talk
i 100% agree that the people of Kooyong got it right and respect Monique Ryan’s victory. No disagreement about that. I was giving advice to the Libs on how to be more competative and focused. I oppose the Americanisation of Australian politics and would have personally preferred if Dutton announced a 2030 emissions target.
Had the libs not stuff up ryan would have lost same with Chaney. Maybe mackellar goo. But nooo
Al tim wilsons haters are rueing this day. Against the grain.
The ALP would be happy to see Tim on the front bench
@NP, the state seat of Hawthorn doesn’t include all the most Liberal suburbs of Kooyong, so with the loss of Pesutto’s personal vote (and promise of being party leader from 2022) and slim margin, I think a good teal like Rob Baillieu would win it even over Amelia.
Bazza hes proba bnly the only liberal who could have pulled this off. So its one more seat in tge bank
@Trent I still think she could do it. She’s not exactly John Pesutto but her views are pretty much the same.
Amelia Hamer would be better s erved commiting to a rethrow in 2028.
The talk about the relative position of the various teals on the political spectrum feels very ‘inside baseball’. Based on their voting records the teals are all very close together ( https://patleslie.net/blogs/blog_teals/blog_post.html ), with Spender only a bit more right. Even if the difference was bigger, it’s very hard to believe that many voters are paying attention to these differences and distinguishing between teals in this way.
That said, it is interesting that the Vic teals have gone slightly backwards, it feels hard to name a satisfying reason in this environment. You could argue that the blue-ribbon electorates thought the teals were too left in practice, but then (based on the above) it’s surprising that NSW teals gained ground (not just Spender). You could say it’s a Melbourne thing, but Melbourne largely swung against the Liberals. People talked about the Jewish vote, but that’s true of Wentworth as well (and it didn’t show up much in Macnamara). The Kooyong contest was messy, but Goldstein wasn’t. Etc.
Was the hold in vote in Goldstein and Kooyong one of the few wins from Dutton’s strategy of going all in on supporting Israel?